Tips for Tikay

[Newportlad]

Excellent Hector.

Was a bit nip and tuck in the deciding set, but got there in the end.

[hector62]

Evening Tighty.

I think Nick Kyrgios is a bet again tomorrow v Stan Wawrinka. He is in great form and playing consistently well and there is also the bonus that Wawrinka can just not bother too much. At odds against it is a decent bet.

Suggest £15 Wawrinka @ 5/4 with Ladbrokes. I would even back him at evens if that was the best price available.

[Peter-27]

Okay, F1 pre-season testing kicks off tomorrow. I've been scouring the markets and found the following bet suggestions.

Drivers Championship Winner - Nico Rosberg @ 9/2 with Betfayre. You guys know my thoughts about Nico Rosberg being the more complete driver already, despite Lewis taking the last two titles. From the USGP last year, and the collision between the two drivers on the opening lap, something changed in Nico. He saw the incident at turn one as Lewis overstepping the line of what is acceptable, and I think it made him realise that he needs to be that aggressive also - which he was - and he won the last three races of the season. Not to mention that he has taken the last six pole positions. I expect Nico to outpace and comprehensively beat Lewis this season. Suggest £50.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

Total Drivers Championships (Lewis Hamilton) - 3 @ 10/1 with Choral. This is half linked to the bet above. With new regulations due in 2017, it's possible we will see Mercedes dominance end then. If Nico can take the title this season, it's more than likely that Lewis will not win another title in F1, 10/1 is utter madness. Suggest £50.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/lewis-hamilton/total-drivers-championships

F1 Specials - McLaren not to get a podium finish in 2016 @ 2/1 with SkaiBet. I like this bet a lot! With McLaren openly coming out and stating that they are sticking to their "size zero" engine concept, I think they are doomed this season, unless we get an absolutely bonkers race .. I can't see a McLaren podium happening at all. Max bet (I was limited to £125).

F1 Specials - McLaren to finish last in the constructors championship @ 16/1 with SkaiBet. This was actually my request to the bookie. With Manor getting Mercedes engines, and technical assistance from Williams, as well as an increased budget, there is a scenario that McLaren will finish dead last this season. I think it's worth £20.

https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/request_-_a_-_bet/event/18830609?action=GoRBSBetslip&bsnls=1&bsopen=1

I will be thinking up more bets to suggest to SkaiBet as testing progresses, will keep you posted.

Surely the fact Lewis had the championship tied up was bound to affect his motiviation for the last three races, so we can ignore those results?  And if we ignore those results, then Lewis has been comprehensively smashing Nico up for two years? 

Maybe Nico did improve a bit at the end, and maybe Lewis didn't suit the later incarnation of the car at the end of the season so well, but in my head at least, Lewis is still going to be winning 2 races for every one Nico wins going forward.

That doesn't mean your bet of 3 championships is bad, because I don't think it is.  Clearly if he loses this one, he may never get a competitive car again and that can't be 10/1.  Despite this I am not going to be making any bets where I don't get paid for 10 years, and not sure anybody should.  What price Sky even keeping a reasoanably competent gambler's account open that long?   In the mean time bank accounts change, account numbers change, addresses change and people end up not knowing who their sons are. 


 

That's quite an assumption, and one I don't agree with. You can tell from the telemetry that Lewis was trying hard, even after he won the title. I expect Nico to not only beat Lewis next season, but dominate him.

I personally like long term bets, but I can understand why others don't too

The first pre-season test is over, and now the number crunching begins! Second (and final) test is 1st-4th March.

[MattyHollis]

If someone could get Fred on a dog on B365 I like the look of a runner in the last at Wimbledon.

Bigwood Max in trap 6 steadily improving over the hurdles and has a nice draw in trap 1, 11/2 is far too big suggest £20 with B365 if we can get it. 5/1 BV or Boyles acceptable if we can get on there instead.

http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/wimbledon/22:26/winner

Booked for Fred.
£20 win Bigwood Max 10.26 Wimbledon @ 11/2.

Sorry folks. 2nd, leader was too far gone we made good ground but couldn't get to it. Returned 3/1

Our antepost dog qualified, not spectacularly but did what he had to. A couple of good performances from the two antepost fav's tho tonight.

[Doobs]

Okay, F1 pre-season testing kicks off tomorrow. I've been scouring the markets and found the following bet suggestions.

Drivers Championship Winner - Nico Rosberg @ 9/2 with Betfayre. You guys know my thoughts about Nico Rosberg being the more complete driver already, despite Lewis taking the last two titles. From the USGP last year, and the collision between the two drivers on the opening lap, something changed in Nico. He saw the incident at turn one as Lewis overstepping the line of what is acceptable, and I think it made him realise that he needs to be that aggressive also - which he was - and he won the last three races of the season. Not to mention that he has taken the last six pole positions. I expect Nico to outpace and comprehensively beat Lewis this season. Suggest £50.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

Total Drivers Championships (Lewis Hamilton) - 3 @ 10/1 with Choral. This is half linked to the bet above. With new regulations due in 2017, it's possible we will see Mercedes dominance end then. If Nico can take the title this season, it's more than likely that Lewis will not win another title in F1, 10/1 is utter madness. Suggest £50.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/lewis-hamilton/total-drivers-championships

F1 Specials - McLaren not to get a podium finish in 2016 @ 2/1 with SkaiBet. I like this bet a lot! With McLaren openly coming out and stating that they are sticking to their "size zero" engine concept, I think they are doomed this season, unless we get an absolutely bonkers race .. I can't see a McLaren podium happening at all. Max bet (I was limited to £125).

F1 Specials - McLaren to finish last in the constructors championship @ 16/1 with SkaiBet. This was actually my request to the bookie. With Manor getting Mercedes engines, and technical assistance from Williams, as well as an increased budget, there is a scenario that McLaren will finish dead last this season. I think it's worth £20.

https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/request_-_a_-_bet/event/18830609?action=GoRBSBetslip&bsnls=1&bsopen=1

I will be thinking up more bets to suggest to SkaiBet as testing progresses, will keep you posted.

Surely the fact Lewis had the championship tied up was bound to affect his motiviation for the last three races, so we can ignore those results?  And if we ignore those results, then Lewis has been comprehensively smashing Nico up for two years? 

Maybe Nico did improve a bit at the end, and maybe Lewis didn't suit the later incarnation of the car at the end of the season so well, but in my head at least, Lewis is still going to be winning 2 races for every one Nico wins going forward.

That doesn't mean your bet of 3 championships is bad, because I don't think it is.  Clearly if he loses this one, he may never get a competitive car again and that can't be 10/1.  Despite this I am not going to be making any bets where I don't get paid for 10 years, and not sure anybody should.  What price Sky even keeping a reasoanably competent gambler's account open that long?   In the mean time bank accounts change, account numbers change, addresses change and people end up not knowing who their sons are. 


 

That's quite an assumption, and one I don't agree with. You can tell from the telemetry that Lewis was trying hard, even after he won the title. I expect Nico to not only beat Lewis next season, but dominate him.

I personally like long term bets, but I can understand why others don't too

The first pre-season test is over, and now the number crunching begins! Second (and final) test is 1st-4th March.

It was a question, not an assumption, but no matter.  But whatever it is, it seems reasonable to me.  Teams win the championship and relax.  Teams in mid table, slow down a bit at the end of the season.  Why wouldn't Lewis chill a bit when he has already won?  It might just be a little bit, but could easily make the difference between two drivers whose cars and lap times are always close. 

Though you say I am making quite an assumption, but then go on to say you expect Rosberg to dominate Hamilton in the very next sentence.  Maybe this year will be closer, maybe it was a real edge.  Guess we'll get a better idea in March.     

   

[pleno1]

Going to be huge value in the GPL betting imo. Huge edges I'd
Imagine with players rankings hugely skewed away from reality.

[baldock92]

Are Stoke really a 4/6 shot this weekend at home to Villa? We all know Villa are poor, but stoke aren't in good form (despite winning last time out against a bad Bournemouth side), and have confirmed Shawcross won't be be this weekend, so it appears our defensive crisis continues.

Are villa worth backing at 5/1, or perhaps the double chance villa/ draw at 5/4? Thoughts appreciated, I just don't know how we're 4/6 in a game when we've not played well as of late.

[NoCardDSC]

Evening Tighty.

I think Nick Kyrgios is a bet again tomorrow v Stan Wawrinka. He is in great form and playing consistently well and there is also the bonus that Wawrinka can just not bother too much. At odds against it is a decent bet.

Suggest £15 Wawrinka @ 5/4 with Ladbrokes. I would even back him at evens if that was the best price available.

Morning Hector!

I assume this is meant to read - suggest £15 @ Kyrgios @ 5/4?

[TightEnd]

Nick Kyrgios Kyrgios v Wawrinka Winner
5/4
Total Stake: £15.00
Potential Returns: £33.75

[Doobs]

Evening Tighty.

I think Nick Kyrgios is a bet again tomorrow v Stan Wawrinka. He is in great form and playing consistently well and there is also the bonus that Wawrinka can just not bother too much. At odds against it is a decent bet.

Suggest £15 Wawrinka @ 5/4 with Ladbrokes. I would even back him at evens if that was the best price available.

Morning Hector!

I assume this is meant to read - suggest £15 @ Kyrgios @ 5/4?

Has Kyrgios got an injury?  I watched the start of yesterday and he seemed to be struggling to move well.  Think it was something to do with his back but was multi tasking.

[hector62]

Yes it should be Kyrgios, and I don't know of any injury concerns. The price for Kyrigos has been falling since yesterday apart from Marathon bet who are now 23/18.

[nellberg]

Evening Tighty.

I think Nick Kyrgios is a bet again tomorrow v Stan Wawrinka. He is in great form and playing consistently well and there is also the bonus that Wawrinka can just not bother too much. At odds against it is a decent bet.

Suggest £15 Wawrinka @ 5/4 with Ladbrokes. I would even back him at evens if that was the best price available.

Morning Hector!

I assume this is meant to read - suggest £15 @ Kyrgios @ 5/4?

Has Kyrgios got an injury?  I watched the start of yesterday and he seemed to be struggling to move well.  Think it was something to do with his back but was multi tasking.

He could barely move for the 1st few games yesterday, was just going shit-or-bust for winners. He then got the physio out and that seems to do the trick, far better movement and rotation of the back after that.

Today's game could be interesting to watch, as Krygios trash-talked Wawrinka during a game last year. It went along the lines of Wawrinka's current gf had previosuly slept with Krygios' davis cup team mate Kokkinakis. Doubt there's much love lost between these 2, may get fiesty. This is there 1st meeting since that game.

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/aug/13/kokkinakis-banged-your-girlfriend-nick-kyrgios-sledges-stan-wawrinka

[Doobs]

Yes it should be Kyrgios, and I don't know of any injury concerns. The price for Kyrigos has been falling since yesterday apart from Marathon bet who are now 23/18.

Marathon are just tracking the Betfair move out to 2.36/2.38 right now.   Should imagine there is quite an arb on now.   You could lay Krygios at 2.12 just after 2 this morning, so quite a move from there.  If you want to back Kyrigos now, Betfair is acres clear of any conventional book.

Moving markets now Hector.

[Doobs]

Evening Tighty.

I think Nick Kyrgios is a bet again tomorrow v Stan Wawrinka. He is in great form and playing consistently well and there is also the bonus that Wawrinka can just not bother too much. At odds against it is a decent bet.

Suggest £15 Wawrinka @ 5/4 with Ladbrokes. I would even back him at evens if that was the best price available.

Morning Hector!

I assume this is meant to read - suggest £15 @ Kyrgios @ 5/4?

Has Kyrgios got an injury?  I watched the start of yesterday and he seemed to be struggling to move well.  Think it was something to do with his back but was multi tasking.

He could barely move for the 1st few games yesterday, was just going shit-or-bust for winners. He then got the physio out and that seems to do the trick, far better movement and rotation of the back after that.

Today's game could be interesting to watch, as Krygios trash-talked Wawrinka during a game last year. It went along the lines of Wawrinka's current gf had previosuly slept with Krygios' davis cup team mate Kokkinakis. Doubt there's much love lost between these 2, may get fiesty. This is there 1st meeting since that game.

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/aug/13/kokkinakis-banged-your-girlfriend-nick-kyrgios-sledges-stan-wawrinka

Thanks,  missed the physio as I was in and out during the game.  He did appear a lot better later on. 

[Tonji]

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars

anyone got anything for the Oscars. So many short price favourites, any possible surprises lurking?