Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

* Awaits arrival of monthly figures from MereNovice *

[MereNovice]

February 2016 Figures

Closed bets: 96
Amount wagered: £2,515.31
Profit/loss: £410.53
ROI: 16.32%

Number of "sports" bet on: 13
Most popular: Football (19), Tennis (16), Dogs (12), NFL (11)
Most profitable: Football (£342.74), Tennis (£186.02), Darts (£147.50), NFL (£57.51)
Least profitable: Horses (-£250.00), Dogs (-£71.77), Boxing (-£50.00)

Number of tipsters: 26 including 3 new tipsters.


Going forward.

Open bets: 70
Amount staked: £3531.22



Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 5,439
Amount wagered: £161,399.27
Profit/loss: £9,474.94
ROI: 5.87%

Number of "sports" bet on: 30
Most popular:  Football (1,261), Horses(1,255), Golf (410), NFL(343).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Football   4,742.50   38,354.09   12.37   1,261
Misc.   1,980.12   7,609.77   26.02   200
Horses   1,805.44   39,931.34   4.52   1,255
...
Snooker   -416.00   1,446.00   -28.77   42
Dogs   -459.41   3,815.69   -12.04   130
Boxing   -491.76   2,942.67   -16.71   82


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zeo-QVxVT7E3dVqP6lXI4xaA8ofWFWM2QOOTdAklvQM/edit#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 183


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 60

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
Bwin      3,042.33   4,947.86   61.49   132
Ladbrokes      3,008.63   19,503.58   15.43   735
BoyleSports      2,505.40   4,520.45   55.42   116
...
PaddyPower      -557.82   7,755.31   -7.19   365
BetDaq      -977.60   1,192.50   -81.98   6
BetFred      -1,695.32   12,777.72   -13.27   442


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zeo-QVxVT7E3dVqP6lXI4xaA8ofWFWM2QOOTdAklvQM/edit#gid=7



Note: The more observant amongst you may have noticed that the total profit is £20 less than you would expect from adding this month's profit to the previous total. This is because I discovered one missing bet during a routine audit that I carry out on the "Tips for tikay" spreadsheet every 29th February.
The missing bet has now been fully accounted for. Apologies for the previous oversight.

[TightEnd]

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=66732.msg2119063#new

forum downtme coming tonight, fyi

thanks

[TightEnd]

thank you to mere for the results

should be able to return to normal on here now after a few tough days schedule wise

first things first

Leeds United

We have them +3.5 points in a match bet wth Preston

At 4-0 down after half an hour last night their charman left

Anyway we are currently -10 and 6.5 ponts n the hole

[TightEnd]

i saw very late last night a quote from Tony Mullins that Vautour was going to the ryanar

i went to oc and saw that prices for him in this vary from 4/6 to 9/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/ryanair-chase/winner

are we talkng stale prices here, or is there still uncertainty as to which race he runs in?

if, if we knew he was a sure thng to run in the ryanair, would we be backng hm at 7/2+?

thanks

[TightEnd]

just emptying my saved nuggets

Peterborough have lost their last 4 league games. pufc's worst losing run since Dec 2013 to Jan 2014.

Peterborough are 6/4 favourites to go to Bury and win tonight

Bury 2/1

why would Bury be home underdogs with Peterborough underperforming as they are?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/bury-v-peterborough/winner

[BorntoBubble]

Another great set of results. Top work chaps.

[Karabiner]

i saw very late last night a quote from Tony Mullins that Vautour was going to the ryanar

i went to oc and saw that prices for him in this vary from 4/6 to 9/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/ryanair-chase/winner

are we talkng stale prices here, or is there still uncertainty as to which race he runs in?

if, if we knew he was a sure thng to run in the ryanair, would we be backng hm at 7/2+?

thanks

The best price "with a run" is evens and that would look big on the day imo.

[Tonibell]

Vautour: “He is in the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Ryanair Chase.

“We threw the kitchen sink at him last year and we are doing the same this year, which is why he went to Leopardstown yesterday. You will probably see him somewhere else in the meantime as well.

“I read an interesting article in the Racing Post this morning suggesting his pedigree might not have enough stamina in it. We will have to see but I think he has enough stamina and at the moment he is going for the Gold Cup. Watching him at home, he is a stayer.

“We asked him a big question in Kempton pushing on that far out. Traditionally, our horses would not be as fit at Christmas as they are in March and he has never shone at Christmas.

“He has always been way better when it comes to Cheltenham. I think with different tactics he should easily stay.”

Mullins stable tour yesterday http://cheltenham.thejockeyclub.co.uk/more-information/news/mullins-reflects-on-his-team-going-to-the-festival

[jakally]

Willie Mullins has strongly indicated he will go the Gold Cup.
If he runs the Ryanair evens is a very good price for me.

[bergeroo]

Bury have got problems at central defence and they were beat easily by Wigan at the weekend (but Wigan are doing great at the moment and are a class above most sides in the division it seems), but even so, it seems like a good spot -  I will have a small dabble.

just emptying my saved nuggets

Peterborough have lost their last 4 league games. pufc's worst losing run since Dec 2013 to Jan 2014.

Peterborough are 6/4 favourites to go to Bury and win tonight

Bury 2/1

why would Bury be home underdogs with Peterborough underperforming as they are?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/bury-v-peterborough/winner

[DungBeetle]

just emptying my saved nuggets

Peterborough have lost their last 4 league games. pufc's worst losing run since Dec 2013 to Jan 2014.

Peterborough are 6/4 favourites to go to Bury and win tonight

Bury 2/1

why would Bury be home underdogs with Peterborough underperforming as they are?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/bury-v-peterborough/winner

Speaking of Peterboro, the spread boys now think their top 6 challenge is almost over, so we are in the red for the first time on our spread positions.  Given that Peterboro can't lose any more money, I suspect the best play is to let them run, but let me know if you want to close them all.

Item   Close PL
Watford   135
Charlton   -113
Preston/Leeds   -26
Peterboro Index   -95
   
Total   -98

[BigAdz]

i saw very late last night a quote from Tony Mullins that Vautour was going to the ryanar

i went to oc and saw that prices for him in this vary from 4/6 to 9/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/ryanair-chase/winner

are we talkng stale prices here, or is there still uncertainty as to which race he runs in?

if, if we knew he was a sure thng to run in the ryanair, would we be backng hm at 7/2+?

thanks

I would want to hear that from Willie Mullins, rather than his brother, but a speculative bet at 4-1/9-2, whilst it may be dead on the day, could also look like genius if he goes Ryanair.

I wonder, what are peoples thoughts about the first couple of days having an impact on the decision? EG, if Min/Annie/Vroom all get beat, would WM/ Richy Rich decide they just want to get a winner on the board? In which case Vautour would surely go Ryanair then?

[Marky147]

Just stick as much as you can on at evens nrnb.

You can lay for a decent freeroll if he runs.

I reckon the only way Vautour goes to the Ryanair, is if it absolutely belts down for the next 2 weeks.

[Doobs]

i saw very late last night a quote from Tony Mullins that Vautour was going to the ryanar

i went to oc and saw that prices for him in this vary from 4/6 to 9/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/ryanair-chase/winner

are we talkng stale prices here, or is there still uncertainty as to which race he runs in?

if, if we knew he was a sure thng to run in the ryanair, would we be backng hm at 7/2+?

thanks

I would want to hear that from Willie Mullins, rather than his brother, but a speculative bet at 4-1/9-2, whilst it may be dead on the day, could also look like genius if he goes Ryanair.

I wonder, what are peoples thoughts about the first couple of days having an impact on the decision? EG, if Min/Annie/Vroom all get beat, would WM/ Richy Rich decide they just want to get a winner on the board? In which case Vautour would surely go Ryanair then?

I don't know.  If we can get evens with a run, then if we take the 9/2 we have to believe that the Ryanair is the most likely route.  I read it that the Gold Cup is the most likely race, so evens with a run is better than 9/2 taking your chances.   You would only correctly take the 9/2 if you believed that the chance of him running in the Ryanair was greater than 45%.