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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 16422097 times)
tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115755 on:
April 05, 2016, 07:59:04 AM »
Quote from: arbboy on April 05, 2016, 03:29:22 AM
Quote from: Chompy on April 05, 2016, 02:18:19 AM
Quote from: doubleup on April 04, 2016, 10:50:47 PM
You might be right but the odds on the top 6 just seem very skinny. Look at Jason Day - he is apparently a 12.5% chance to be first and about a 33% chance to be top 5. So he has to average a 5% chance for 2nd to 5th. I doubt he can drop from being a 12.5% for first to 5% for second - so he has to surely be something like 9% to be second - now following this logic we must be about 6% for third say then 4% for 4th and we're now about 2% for 5th.
This is all obviously guesstimate stuff, but it comes down to him being 6th-8th maybe 4%* of the time and we go hurrah when we get paid, but I just think that we have to be careful overvaluing the concession on such a short price.
edited after a bit of thought as maybe the chances of a place level out a bit, but still don't think its the huge bargain it appears.
Betty have a 'big 5 v the field' market and it's 2.1 the big guns, 1.9 the rest. The top five prices with Sky aren't bad in comparison. Around 52%. Obv under 50% at best prices.
Paying eight places, a quarter the odds, Sky are 9-4 about a top eight finish for Jordo. He's odds-on to lay in the top ten market on the machine. Jason Day can be laid at 7-1 for as much as you like outright and is 1.8 in the top ten market, compared to 7-4 top eight with Sky.
Given it's 66-1 bar the top 14 runners in the outrights, I'd say Sky's terms are pretty incred.
7 places 1/4 odds is bonkers. 8 is insane. I said this last week no one would go 7 places which they haven't at 1/4 odds apart from sky sweat who have gone 8. The trouble is with sky sweat though is that if you open a new account and
back ten golfers ew to take out £5k each or whatever the max bet is on a new account you at about a 1/50 shot to get cut to 1% win lose or draw
. So what is the point of the offer?
Just to set fire to cash by sky
? Open loads of new accounts and then close most of them after giving them a free bet for opening as well?
Well yes, feel free to readily assume they have no idea what they are doing. Or maybe you have been out-levelled, & there happens to be sound long-term logic behind it.
Probably best to think a little wider, Argue. There IS sound logic behind this offer, & the specific timing behind it.
And yes, if you back, or try to back, 10 golfers to take out £5k each, you are more than likely to get Restricted/closed, because that is absolutely not the market they are targeting. Bets of that size may be meat & drink to 1% of the market, the Pros mainly, but the target market won't be betting sums anything like that, or adopting the logic of betting all of the top 10 in the market.
It's a major betting event, in both senses of the word. That means they can take a longer view & use it as an exercise in acquisition, exactly as they did at Cheltenham, & will do in Euro16.
«
Last Edit: April 05, 2016, 08:42:06 AM by tikay
»
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rinswun
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115756 on:
April 05, 2016, 08:08:07 AM »
Paying 7 places on the GN too?!
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horseplayer
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115757 on:
April 05, 2016, 09:25:28 AM »
John Rhodes is widely accepted as a very good golf compiler (he is also an excellent judge ) suspect sky know what they are doing here
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baldock92
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115758 on:
April 05, 2016, 09:33:10 AM »
Charley Hoffman at 150/1 each way can't be bad for an outside bet.
Rose 25/1, matsuyama 33/1 and Oosthuizen 35/1 seem decent aswell.
Bubba to get his 3rd green jacket though imo
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horseplayer
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115759 on:
April 05, 2016, 09:35:00 AM »
All I will add to the debate is something I said last year...
I don't think the terms suddenly means Fred should be betting any golfer who looks a good price.
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115760 on:
April 05, 2016, 10:07:03 AM »
Quote from: horseplayer on April 05, 2016, 09:25:28 AM
John Rhodes is widely accepted as a very good golf compiler (he is also an excellent judge ) suspect sky know what they are doing here
Well maybe, maybe not, I've no idea how good John is, though I fancy they do know what they are doing as I've seen the results, but here's the thing. Right now, several major Sports Betting sites have dropped the ball - we all know who they are - & so there is a land-grab in progress, & the landscape is changing. There will never be a better time to mop up disaffected punters.
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115761 on:
April 05, 2016, 10:13:27 AM »
Quote from: horseplayer on April 05, 2016, 09:35:00 AM
All I will add to the debate is something I said last year...
I don't think the terms suddenly means Fred should be betting any golfer who looks a good price.
Most years, we tend to have a good share of our Masters book on the Sub-Markets, which are less volatile & lower variance. I daresay we'll do some of each this year, including outrights, though maybe less of the latter if - IF - it is deemed that Sky's EW terms mean punters should go that route.
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115762 on:
April 05, 2016, 10:15:59 AM »
Whilst we are discussing Masters Golf, here's the details of BBC's coverage.
I know they are not everyone's cup of tea, but I'm really looking forward to Sir Peter Alliss & Ken Brown doing their thing, they beat Sky Sports all ends up imo.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/26768244
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DungBeetle
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115763 on:
April 05, 2016, 10:30:39 AM »
Quote from: Peter-27 on April 04, 2016, 11:16:28 PM
Quote from: DungBeetle on April 04, 2016, 01:06:24 AM
Quote from: Peter-27 on April 04, 2016, 12:16:41 AM
Quote from: DungBeetle on April 03, 2016, 11:52:00 PM
Quote from: horseplayer on April 03, 2016, 07:00:00 PM
Quote from: Peter-27 on April 03, 2016, 06:47:33 PM
Quote from: TightEnd on April 03, 2016, 06:33:55 PM
Bahrain grand prix vettel 5/1 15 0 N -15
Bahrain Grand Prix Top 6 Finish perez 9/4 25 0 N -25
Bahrain Grand Prix Not To Finish The Race gutierrez 11/10 20 42 Y 22
Bahrain Grand Prix Not To Finish The Race grosjean 6/5 20 0 N -20
double team points finish renault 20/1 5 0 N -5
formula e long beach bird 10/1 10 0 N -10
Bahrain gp points finish Palmer 6/1 10 0 N -10
Formula e long beach buemi 11/2 25 0 N -25
-£98 Total
hopefully better luck in China in a fortnight
Rubbish weekend for these bets, although the spreads worked well for those who got on there.
The Vettel, Palmer and Renault bets may well (and should) be voided because Vettel and Palmer had a DNS.
Cant win em all Peter
You are still a massive winner for fred so chin up
I cleaned up on those spreads you put up Peter. Cheers! How do you see the season long spreads going? Williams take a hit presumably? Force India looked lacking pace as well.
Awesome!
You know what, lap one was so chaotic that pretty much every car in the field was carrying some degree of damage. That, coupled with the volume of strategies is making data analysis an absolute nightmare. I've been looking through timing data for around four hours and am not even close to deducing what exactly happened during that race. If this is how the rest of the season will be, we're in for an incredible, albeit complicated, season.
Both Williams and both Force India's lacked pace due to damage. I'm still working through the data, and should hopefully be able to draw conclusions over the coming days. It looks like buying Haas on the spreads wouldn't be a bad move right now, although I still need to be more certain before making that move.
.
I bought Grosjean pre season and am up about 50 points and just topped up on Haas a few hours ago as I think they are still too low. Would welcome your thoughts when you've taken a look though as might adjust further.
That bet looks pretty good as things currently stand. It's a bit hard to tell with any team at the moment given that Australia was massively disrupted by the red flag, and Bahrain was skewed by multiple collisions on the opening lap causing serious damage to most cars. I suspect when we have a clean race, we'll see the Haas drivers at the tail end of the points. I wouldn't personally be buying Haas on the spreads just yet, but maybe in one or two races.
I saw in "Ted's notebook" that Eric Bouillier said he thought Jenson would have come 7th if he hadn't had a failure. Did you reach a similar conclusion to that? Seemed a bit optimistic to me.
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BigAdz
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115764 on:
April 05, 2016, 10:31:00 AM »
Quote from: tikay on April 05, 2016, 10:15:59 AM
Whilst we are discussing Masters Golf, here's the details of BBC's coverage.
I know they are not everyone's cup of tea, but I'm really looking forward to Sir Peter Alliss & Ken Brown doing their thing, they beat Sky Sports all ends up imo.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/26768244
We were discussing this at the weekend and thought Brown would be the perfect replacement host for the much missed Around With Aliss type show.
Anyone else have a thought on this?
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BigAdz
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115765 on:
April 05, 2016, 10:43:32 AM »
To be honest all this talk about not betting in the Masters because we aren't getting the best of it is all very well, but you don't have to go back far to find plenty of examples of 'lets have a bet it's the @£(=' .
Or the 'its quiet, so to liven things up' bet.
So I think that ship has long since sailed.
I would say in general, every reg here has learnt what they ever will from the great punters of our time, and so much of it has been adopted, but in the end, I bet even 90% of the top 1% of great punters still have the odd punt.
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TightEnd
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115766 on:
April 05, 2016, 10:50:08 AM »
Hector, did you see John Murray's excellent summation of the Paul Ryan opportunity on the "next president" thread?
i posed your question....
late last night....
2016 US Presidential Election
Paul Ryan - Next President
Betfair Bet ID 1:66198848817 | Matched: 04-Apr-16 23:28:01 Back 50.00 10.00
was matched. happy enough for it to go on the thread i assume?
look to trade it out if it goes as expected
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115767 on:
April 05, 2016, 10:51:09 AM »
Quote from: BigAdz on April 05, 2016, 10:31:00 AM
Quote from: tikay on April 05, 2016, 10:15:59 AM
Whilst we are discussing Masters Golf, here's the details of BBC's coverage.
I know they are not everyone's cup of tea, but I'm really looking forward to Sir Peter Alliss & Ken Brown doing their thing, they beat Sky Sports all ends up imo.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/26768244
We were discussing this at the weekend and thought Brown would be the perfect replacement host for the much missed Around With Aliss type show.
Anyone else have a thought on this?
He would be perfect imo, he has that whimsical way, & relates so well with the viewers. Good golfing pedigree, fine sense of humour, comfy front of camera.
Do you remember, a few years back, Mr Lineker's attempts at fronting BBC Golf? Hard to dislike Gary, or fail to respect his record as a footballer, but for me, that was a bit of a fail, he just seemed so uncomfortable.
The mightily impressive Claire Balding seems to excel at almost everything she turns her hand to but I doubt that would work with golf somehow.
Were they not so busy elsewhere with other projects, Jeremy Clarkson or Chris Evans might be interesting contenders, & Chris is a decent golfer. Jeremy might ruffle establishment feathers interestingly.
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tikay
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115768 on:
April 05, 2016, 10:54:20 AM »
Quote from: BigAdz on April 05, 2016, 10:43:32 AM
To be honest all this talk about not betting in the Masters because we aren't getting the best of it is all very well, but you don't have to go back far to find plenty of examples of 'lets have a bet it's the @£(=' .
Or the 'its quiet, so to liven things up' bet.
So I think that ship has long since sailed.
I would say in general, every reg here has learnt what they ever will from the great punters of our time, and so much of it has been adopted, but in the end, I bet even 90% of the top 1% of great punters still have the odd punt.
I think that whilst, logically, that makes no sense to do, the fact is, Fred does occasionally need a little seeding to keep interest levels up.
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hector62
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Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #115769 on:
April 05, 2016, 10:59:47 AM »
Quote from: TightEnd on April 05, 2016, 10:50:08 AM
Hector, did you see John Murray's excellent summation of the Paul Ryan opportunity on the "next president" thread?
i posed your question....
late last night....
2016 US Presidential Election
Paul Ryan - Next President
Betfair Bet ID 1:66198848817 | Matched: 04-Apr-16 23:28:01 Back 50.00 10.00
was matched. happy enough for it to go on the thread i assume?
look to trade it out if it goes as expected
Yes I read it, as I do all the politics threads here. Very happy to put it on thread as I just can't see America going for Trump. I saw that Hills, who had Ryan at the 50's are now down to 25's. I will now follow " Real time with Bill Maher " with added interest and let you know any tid bits.
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