Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/thirsk/14:45/winner

Hugh Taylor put up interesting points in his column today and has put up two. Best trip and orions bow both from low draws. Traditionally high draws are a massive advantage at thirsk over sprint trips, as Hugh says today last week the reverse was true and low numbers held sway. Now that could be a one off but if it isn't there could be an angle.

I quite like kommander kirkup at 50s  (66s sportsbook) 10 each way. Drawn in the one box.

John Davies used to be an owner with Michael dods and has now gone alone last few years. He has done ok but the small number he has had run this turf season have all gone well.

The horse has horrid form figures but since a 2 year old he has been inconsistent. Finally the mark is back below the last winning one and Phil Dennis is a much improved claimer.

Horse could be gone e.t.c and if draw does reverse to the norm won't have much chance anyway.

I am willing to take a small  chance at 50s.

If anyone could get me a tenner each way personally at 66s with sportsbook  I'd appreciate it.

Jockeys only recently seem to have latched on to the fact that the far rail is quicker. I'm pretty sure it has been since they changed the watering system a lot of years ago but field splits have still been rare, even when 16+ line up.

Low numbers are definitely best when they split and a group of six or more head over.

https://www.periscope.tv/w/1djGXDLlaLPGZ

Epic viewing if anyone has an hour to kill.

Here is the breakdown of the last 10 years, handicaps with 16 or more runners.  I think the middle seems to be the worst, so if they don't split the low ones end up on the middle.   Anyway there has been a huge advantage towards high.  Going doesn't seem to make much difference.

[Peter-27]

Absolutely fascinating FP3 session in Sochi!

Bets coming in an hour when the market re-forms

[exstream]

Arb I know you're a Leicester fan now but you used to like Stoke. Thoughts on today's price?

[Doobs]

Stoke drifting and now 9/4 with BetVictor. Go in again?

Wow, is that real?  Easily beats the 3.1 on betfair.   Would be rude not to.

Everton out to 6/5 too.  

[Chompy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/thirsk/14:45/winner

Hugh Taylor put up interesting points in his column today and has put up two. Best trip and orions bow both from low draws. Traditionally high draws are a massive advantage at thirsk over sprint trips, as Hugh says today last week the reverse was true and low numbers held sway. Now that could be a one off but if it isn't there could be an angle.

I quite like kommander kirkup at 50s  (66s sportsbook) 10 each way. Drawn in the one box.

John Davies used to be an owner with Michael dods and has now gone alone last few years. He has done ok but the small number he has had run this turf season have all gone well.

The horse has horrid form figures but since a 2 year old he has been inconsistent. Finally the mark is back below the last winning one and Phil Dennis is a much improved claimer.

Horse could be gone e.t.c and if draw does reverse to the norm won't have much chance anyway.

I am willing to take a small  chance at 50s.

If anyone could get me a tenner each way personally at 66s with sportsbook  I'd appreciate it.

Jockeys only recently seem to have latched on to the fact that the far rail is quicker. I'm pretty sure it has been since they changed the watering system a lot of years ago but field splits have still been rare, even when 16+ line up.

Low numbers are definitely best when they split and a group of six or more head over.

https://www.periscope.tv/w/1djGXDLlaLPGZ

Epic viewing if anyone has an hour to kill.

Here is the breakdown of the last 10 years, handicaps with 16 or more runners.  I think the middle seems to be the worst, so if they don't split the low ones end up on the middle.   Anyway there has been a huge advantage towards high.  Going doesn't seem to make much difference.

The problem with draw stats is that they don't show whether fields have split or not. If fields don't split, low draws are a disadvantage. If they do, they're an advantage. Not many trainers have latched on to this bias.

[BigAdz]

Not a bet but worth posting. You might well have seen the news about the NFL Draft and the lad who was held in many quarters as the best player in this year's crop of college graduates, Laremy Tunsil.

The NFL being American, the whole draft first round thing is done up like the Oscars, with a red carpet, the top players all dressed up and sitting in a green room with cameras on them all night until they get picked.



Then, just before the first pick was announced, he got told the news that his twitter account had just posted an image of him smoking marujuana:

Click to see full-size image.

It's something the NFL takes seriously and teams are not likely to risk huge amounts of money on players with drug problems.

Over the next couple of hours, as teams picked other players, including guys in Tunsil's position of Offensive Tackle, the cameras came back to have a look at this young man's face. Tears in his eyes and a look of a mixture of fear and embarrasment on his face.

He was eventually taken at 13 by the Miami Dolphins, which the article below puts into financial context:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/poor-timing--laremy-tunsil-takes-down-twitter-video-of-him-and-a-bong-001502430.html

The story is quite something. It even made it to the broadsheets here:

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/apr/28/laremy-tunsil-gas-mask-tweet-nfl-draft-miami-dolphins

If he is clean and stays clean, he could be the steal of the draft.

Are you sure he just didn't like dressing up like Dr Who baddies?

[Peter-27]

Absolutely fascinating FP3 session in Sochi!

Bets coming in an hour when the market re-forms

Only one bet to suggest!

Top Six Finish - Felipe Massa @ 6/5 with 366, Lads and StanShames. Based on practice, Williams clearly look like the third best team here, I would expect Felipe to finish 5th this weekend. Suggest £25. Anything above evens is fine.

[TightEnd]

Felipe Massa Russian Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
6/5
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £55.00

[doubleup]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/thirsk/14:45/winner

Hugh Taylor put up interesting points in his column today and has put up two. Best trip and orions bow both from low draws. Traditionally high draws are a massive advantage at thirsk over sprint trips, as Hugh says today last week the reverse was true and low numbers held sway. Now that could be a one off but if it isn't there could be an angle.

I quite like kommander kirkup at 50s  (66s sportsbook) 10 each way. Drawn in the one box.

John Davies used to be an owner with Michael dods and has now gone alone last few years. He has done ok but the small number he has had run this turf season have all gone well.

The horse has horrid form figures but since a 2 year old he has been inconsistent. Finally the mark is back below the last winning one and Phil Dennis is a much improved claimer.

Horse could be gone e.t.c and if draw does reverse to the norm won't have much chance anyway.

I am willing to take a small  chance at 50s.

If anyone could get me a tenner each way personally at 66s with sportsbook  I'd appreciate it.

Jockeys only recently seem to have latched on to the fact that the far rail is quicker. I'm pretty sure it has been since they changed the watering system a lot of years ago but field splits have still been rare, even when 16+ line up.

Low numbers are definitely best when they split and a group of six or more head over.

https://www.periscope.tv/w/1djGXDLlaLPGZ

Epic viewing if anyone has an hour to kill.

Here is the breakdown of the last 10 years, handicaps with 16 or more runners.  I think the middle seems to be the worst, so if they don't split the low ones end up on the middle.   Anyway there has been a huge advantage towards high.  Going doesn't seem to make much difference.

The problem with draw stats is that they don't show whether fields have split or not. If fields don't split, low draws are a disadvantage. If they do, they're an advantage. Not many trainers have latched on to this bias.

I looked at races back till 2012 and 14/17 split (didn't look further as it seemed pointless).  I first looked at the 10 years of softish going though and they seem to split less 4/8, but when they do low do well (but obv it's lol sample size).

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/thirsk/14:45/winner

Hugh Taylor put up interesting points in his column today and has put up two. Best trip and orions bow both from low draws. Traditionally high draws are a massive advantage at thirsk over sprint trips, as Hugh says today last week the reverse was true and low numbers held sway. Now that could be a one off but if it isn't there could be an angle.

I quite like kommander kirkup at 50s  (66s sportsbook) 10 each way. Drawn in the one box.

John Davies used to be an owner with Michael dods and has now gone alone last few years. He has done ok but the small number he has had run this turf season have all gone well.

The horse has horrid form figures but since a 2 year old he has been inconsistent. Finally the mark is back below the last winning one and Phil Dennis is a much improved claimer.

Horse could be gone e.t.c and if draw does reverse to the norm won't have much chance anyway.

I am willing to take a small  chance at 50s.

If anyone could get me a tenner each way personally at 66s with sportsbook  I'd appreciate it.

Jockeys only recently seem to have latched on to the fact that the far rail is quicker. I'm pretty sure it has been since they changed the watering system a lot of years ago but field splits have still been rare, even when 16+ line up.

Low numbers are definitely best when they split and a group of six or more head over.

https://www.periscope.tv/w/1djGXDLlaLPGZ

Epic viewing if anyone has an hour to kill.

Here is the breakdown of the last 10 years, handicaps with 16 or more runners.  I think the middle seems to be the worst, so if they don't split the low ones end up on the middle.   Anyway there has been a huge advantage towards high.  Going doesn't seem to make much difference.

The problem with draw stats is that they don't show whether fields have split or not. If fields don't split, low draws are a disadvantage. If they do, they're an advantage. Not many trainers have latched on to this bias.

I looked at races back till 2012 and 14/17 split (didn't look further as it seemed pointless).  I first looked at the 10 years of softish going though and they seem to split less 4/8, but when they do low do well (but obv it's lol sample size).

Think the fife's who now train best trip will be well aware which should drag mine over there as well

Hopefully

[kukushkin88]

I'm not sure if anybody is going to Uttoxeter today...Arb? I think the first race gives us a decent chance. I like Dexcite to turn over the jolly. I think he's much more likely to settle in this much bigger field and if he does the prices should be other way around imo. I think we should have £50 at the widely available 11/4.

Have a good day all, loads of good racing.

[BigAdz]

I'm not sure if anybody is going to Uttoxeter today...Arb? I think the first race gives us a decent chance. I like Dexcite to turn over the jolly. I think he's much more likely to settle in this much bigger field and if he does the prices should be other way around imo. I think we should have £50 at the widely available 11/4.

Have a good day all, loads of good racing.

Ive backed this thing til I'm blue in the face, and think its a twicer. Your post has forced me to give him one last chance....GL

[BigAdz]

Got the low lay in, but would rather have been proved wrong. Unlucky

[kukushkin88]

Got the low lay in, but would rather have been proved wrong. Unlucky

What was the lowest price you saw Adz?

[BigAdz]

Got the low lay in, but would rather have been proved wrong. Unlucky

What was the lowest price you saw Adz?

I got taken at 1.1, but traded at 1.03