Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Boilsports are 23/20!?

into 8/15 now

Couldn't find this anywhere, but guess the value has gone.

I have managed to find value in 5 different horses in the Chester Cup.

Could go horribly wrong so better not put them all on for thread.   Quick Jack at 9/1 looks very good each way.  Gang Warfare beats betfair on both win and place.   I can't get on with ladbrokes, but of the outsiders, Nakeeta looks intersting at 33/1.

[Doobs]

Boilsports are 23/20!?

into 8/15 now

Couldn't find this anywhere, but guess the value has gone.

I have managed to find value in 5 different horses in the Chester Cup.

Could go horribly wrong so better not put them all on for thread.   Quick Jack at 9/1 looks very good each way.  Gang Warfare beats betfair on both win and place.   I can't get on with ladbrokes, but of the outsiders, Nakeeta looks intersting at 33/1.

Dammit, Nakeeta just touched off.

[BorntoBubble]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2016-05-05-chester/15:45/winner

Mentioned this horse a few months ago, Still On Top, I had a nudge from a work colleague which came from the yard and i didnt put it up here and obviously it won. Have followed it in its next few races with nothing much happening but on Tuesday he gave me another nudge (he has not given me this in the past few races so should be a good indication).

Its good enough for me to have a dable E/W and I have got 18/1 with B365 which i took an extra £25 E/W for the thread. I then got stuck on a call and now see that it is best priced 16/1 and 14/1 on B365 so i dont know what you want to do if you want the bet or not just let me know i am easy.

In short.

Still on Top anything above 12/1 E/W i would have a little dabble.

I have £25 E/W at 18/1 1/4 odds top 3 locked for the thread just let me know before the end of the evening if you want it or not.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2016-05-05-chester/15:45/winner

Mentioned this horse a few months ago, Still On Top, I had a nudge from a work colleague which came from the yard and i didnt put it up here and obviously it won. Have followed it in its next few races with nothing much happening but on Tuesday he gave me another nudge (he has not given me this in the past few races so should be a good indication).

Its good enough for me to have a dable E/W and I have got 18/1 with B365 which i took an extra £25 E/W for the thread. I then got stuck on a call and now see that it is best priced 16/1 and 14/1 on B365 so i dont know what you want to do if you want the bet or not just let me know i am easy.

In short.

Still on Top anything above 12/1 E/W i would have a little dabble.

I have £25 E/W at 18/1 1/4 odds top 3 locked for the thread just let me know before the end of the evening if you want it or not.

i'm not sure. sure its fine and i am reluctant to pass it over because sure as eggs is eggs....

but we've never really done "a mate told me" stuff

it hasn't run for 199 days. has it come down the weights? will it suit chester?

[KarmaDope]

Its the outsider of 9 in a sprint round the curve at Chester and it's drawn a middle stall. Never a good sign IMO.

If I was having to bet in this race I'd bet Ode to Nothing at Coral, paying three places 1/4 odds, whereas everyone else is 1/5 odds on an each way. But I am an ice cream so this isn't a recommend. I just remember how much the stall draw comes into play at Chester.

(On a separate note its a sad state of affairs when the outsider is 16/1 in a nine horse race...)

[TightEnd]

Andre Russell took 4 wickets as KKR beat KXIP in the IPL today, despite Maxwell coming off for once.



league table: KXIP to finish bottom at 11/2 the bet

http://www.espncricinfo.com/indian-premier-league-2016/engine/series/968923.html?view=pointstable

KXIP in a three way battle with two of the big boys, RCB (Kohli, ABDV et al) and Pune (Dhoni, Ashwin etc but badly injury hit) to avoid finishing bottom currently

[doubleup]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2016-05-05-chester/15:45/winner

Mentioned this horse a few months ago, Still On Top, I had a nudge from a work colleague which came from the yard and i didnt put it up here and obviously it won. Have followed it in its next few races with nothing much happening but on Tuesday he gave me another nudge (he has not given me this in the past few races so should be a good indication).

Its good enough for me to have a dable E/W and I have got 18/1 with B365 which i took an extra £25 E/W for the thread. I then got stuck on a call and now see that it is best priced 16/1 and 14/1 on B365 so i dont know what you want to do if you want the bet or not just let me know i am easy.

In short.

Still on Top anything above 12/1 E/W i would have a little dabble.

I have £25 E/W at 18/1 1/4 odds top 3 locked for the thread just let me know before the end of the evening if you want it or not.

i'm not sure. sure its fine and i am reluctant to pass it over because sure as eggs is eggs....

but we've never really done "a mate told me" stuff

it hasn't run for 199 days. has it come down the weights? will it suit chester?

I had a look at the last ten runnings of the race (yes I know lolsample) and it stacks up quite well

down in class is profitable
middle draw profitable
first run of the year is profitable

obviously a lot depends on whether it has progressed from 2 to 3, but there aren't really any huge negatives.

edit and also 1/4 odds 3 places is probably not going to be far off betfair when the market gets established (ceteris paribus)

[BigAdz]

I thought at 18s it looked a fair bit of value to progress.

I see it starting a fair bit shorter than this and if nothing else you can arb it later.

[Doobs]

I did a bit of research too and discovered that getting drawn in the outside in sprints at Chester was very highly correlated with self certified injury withdrawals.  ie there could easily be just 7 show up.  

Funnily enough horses drawn low there are much more fit and healthy.

Edit just had a check and we lost one from each sprint today.  The horse drawn 7 in the first withdrew, wrecked the each way, and the horse drawn 8 won.  I hope that the withdrawn horse makes a full recovery.   Must be devastating for connections to have a horse drawn 7 in a Chester sprint to lose a horse to injury so early in the season.

[doubleup]

Think you are exaggerating a bit.  First 7.5f is right on the margins of "sprint" and the race has been an 3 place heat 8 of the last 11 runnings and 2 of the 2 placers were actual soft going not the bit of cut of today.  Also the fav is in the 9 box with the champion jockey booked, Hanagan is up on the 8, Buick on the 6.  So doesn't seem like the plan is to withdraw.  The 7 draw does have a claimer, but the owner is "Chelsea thoroughbreds" who don't sound to me like the types to pull off dodgy strokes of the kind you envisage 

[BigAdz]

I did a bit of research too and discovered that getting drawn in the outside in sprints at Chester was very highly correlated with self certified injury withdrawals.  ie there could easily be just 7 show up.  

Funnily enough horses drawn low there are much more fit and healthy.

Edit just had a check and we lost one from each sprint today.  The horse drawn 7 in the first withdrew, wrecked the each way, and the horse drawn 8 won.  I hope that the withdrawn horse makes a full recovery.   Must be devastating for connections to have a horse drawn 7 in a Chester sprint to lose a horse to injury so early in the season.

I think Chester announced some form of initiative today to encourage less "withdrawals" for bad draws etc. Free transport, entry etc. Wasn't listening too hard but at least the course finally acknowledge they need to tackle the problem.

[Doobs]

Think you are exaggerating a bit.  First 7.5f is right on the margins of "sprint" and the race has been an 3 place heat 8 of the last 11 runnings and 2 of the 2 placers were actual soft going not the bit of cut of today.  Also the fav is in the 9 box with the champion jockey booked, Hanagan is up on the 8, Buick on the 6.  So doesn't seem like the plan is to withdraw.  The 7 draw does have a claimer, but the owner is "Chelsea thoroughbreds" who don't sound to me like the types to pull off dodgy strokes of the kind you envisage 

I am not exagerrating

We lost 6 today, 5 of which were drawn outside or 1 from the outside.  We lost the horse drawn 19 of 19 from that famous sprint; the Chester Cup ffs.  I guess you are right though, if the favoured horses are on the outside we should be less likely to lose them.

Sure we have had this discussion here before though, horses can win from a high draw at Chester as shown in the first and so what if they get badly beaten, it isn't going to harm their handicap.  And I suspect there is a pretty strong correlation between handicap manipulators and the people that withdraw "injured" horses.

I have just read Adz' reply, that sounds like a very good thing, hope connections start to run their horses.

[BorntoBubble]

First one of my suggestions to create a discussion.

I finally feel I have made it

[nellberg]

Andre Russell took 4 wickets as KKR beat KXIP in the IPL today, despite Maxwell coming off for once.



league table: KXIP to finish bottom at 11/2 the bet

http://www.espncricinfo.com/indian-premier-league-2016/engine/series/968923.html?view=pointstable

KXIP in a three way battle with two of the big boys, RCB (Kohli, ABDV et al) and Pune (Dhoni, Ashwin etc but badly injury hit) to avoid finishing bottom currently

Pune are the worry for me here, having lost the 4 overseas players from game 1 (KP, Du Plessis, Steve Smith and Mitch Marsh). Basically any pre-season plans they had in now ruined. Khawaja will be a decent replacement but they are up against it.

Kings Xi only played 3 overseas players today, which tells you how much they rate Behardien, Johnson and Abbott. They have called up Amla for Shaun Marsh, so a similar swap really. I can't see them winning many more, and they have the worst run rate, depends on how awful Pune are.

RCB will surely do enough to not come rock bottom. A start would be to drop Gayle for a foreign bowler (worrying, Chris Jordan is touted as the "messiah" here) but they are getting desperate now so should make the tough choice and pick a balanced side.

Kings Xi are currently a 1/2 shot, which looks a bit short given Pune's troubles.

[The Camel]

Bit harsh to include a filly in season in the fake injuries stats.