Tips for Tikay

[Tonji]

All the best horsey, get well soon.

[TightEnd]

Okay, F1 bets for the Spanish GP (sorry they're coming so late):

Race Winner - Nico Rosberg @ 8/5 with betfayre (or highest price over EVS) - this price is just ludicrous when Nico has won the last seven races in a row. Another example of my theory that the bookies over-estimate Lewis because he's "more Hollywood" i.e. a more famous name. It is also worth noting that this is traditionally "a Nico track". Suggest £25.

Podium Finish - Max Verstappen @ 9/2 with Choral (looking above 4/1) - Circuit de Catalunya is a very much aero dominated track. It's not overall engine power that will win out here, and that's why Red Bull have a shot at beating Ferrari this weekend, maybe. At 9/2, it's worth £10 on Max. We know the kid is quick, potentially he'll blow Ricciardo away pace wise, who knows!

Points Finish - Sergio Perez @ 6/4 with various - Force India have a massive upgrade this weekend. Although, even without that upgrade, pricing Sergio over EVS for the points is utter madness. To put it into context; at the last race, Sergio suffered a puncture, severe damage, and an extra pit stop. He still finished 9th. This really needs taking advantage of. Suggest £100.

Top Six Finish - Sergio Perez @ 6/1 with laddybrookes. Same reasons as above. £10.

i wish you wouldn't say that prices are influenced by the hollywood factor. they are not. he's a quicker driver over their mutual careers, and prices have moved a lot over the course of these seven races to reflect the short term results. hamilton was routinely 8/13 for races rosberg 5/2. now they are generally joint favourites around 11/10 which feels about right, when the hamilton misfortune evens out with his team-mate which it will

anyway

Nico Rosberg Spanish Grand Prix Winner
£25.00 @ 2.50
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £62.50

Max Verstappen Spanish Grand Prix Top 3 Finish
9/2
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £55.00

        Bet Type: Single
            Spanish GP - Points Finish Points Finish
                Perez, Sergio 6/4
        Possible Payout (inc. stake) 250.00 GBP
    1 bet @
    100.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 100.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 250.00 GBP

Sergio Perez Spanish Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
6/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £70.00
 

[Chompy]

Awful Derby this year.

Come on Listen, send the super-filly, she'll walk it.

Exactly what I thought.  So decided to take a price on foundation for the Derby only for John Gosden to come on 30 seconds later to say he is going to France... 

Would that be because Chantilly might suit Foundation better than Epsom, or could it be Mr Gosden has something better tucked up his sleeve for Epsom?

Before it had run. A 'tipster' I follow on Facebook who has in fairness provided some bug odds winners (Libertarian a couple of years back at 40/1) has been keen on UAE Prince (66/1) in the Derby for quite a while now. Apparently Gosden said it would do very well and be trained for that race. (however it did have a disappointing debut run) I've had a small nibble at the odds

Uae Prince is trained by Roger Varian?

Finishing third in a Leicester maiden behind an 83-rated winner wouldn't suggest Derby to me. Save your money!

[Doobs]

Okay, F1 bets for the Spanish GP (sorry they're coming so late):

Race Winner - Nico Rosberg @ 8/5 with betfayre (or highest price over EVS) - this price is just ludicrous when Nico has won the last seven races in a row. Another example of my theory that the bookies over-estimate Lewis because he's "more Hollywood" i.e. a more famous name. It is also worth noting that this is traditionally "a Nico track". Suggest £25.

Podium Finish - Max Verstappen @ 9/2 with Choral (looking above 4/1) - Circuit de Catalunya is a very much aero dominated track. It's not overall engine power that will win out here, and that's why Red Bull have a shot at beating Ferrari this weekend, maybe. At 9/2, it's worth £10 on Max. We know the kid is quick, potentially he'll blow Ricciardo away pace wise, who knows!

Points Finish - Sergio Perez @ 6/4 with various - Force India have a massive upgrade this weekend. Although, even without that upgrade, pricing Sergio over EVS for the points is utter madness. To put it into context; at the last race, Sergio suffered a puncture, severe damage, and an extra pit stop. He still finished 9th. This really needs taking advantage of. Suggest £100.

Top Six Finish - Sergio Perez @ 6/1 with laddybrookes. Same reasons as above. £10.

i wish you wouldn't say that prices are influenced by the hollywood factor. they are not. he's a quicker driver over their mutual careers, and prices have moved a lot over the course of these seven races to reflect the short term results. hamilton was routinely 8/13 for races rosberg 5/2. now they are generally joint favourites around 11/10 which feels about right, when the hamilton misfortune evens out with his team-mate which it will

anyway

Nico Rosberg Spanish Grand Prix Winner
£25.00 @ 2.50
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £62.50

Max Verstappen Spanish Grand Prix Top 3 Finish
9/2
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £55.00

        Bet Type: Single
            Spanish GP - Points Finish Points Finish
                Perez, Sergio 6/4
        Possible Payout (inc. stake) 250.00 GBP
    1 bet @
    100.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 100.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 250.00 GBP

Sergio Perez Spanish Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
6/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £70.00
 

Nico opened a touch shorter this week.  I think it was 6/5 and 5/4.  I had a Hamilton back at 2.4 sat on the exchange since Monday which hasn't been taken.  Nico went out to 2.6x over the same period.  So any movement was down to the exchange and not any view on the two that the bookies originally made.

[Chompy]

Looking at the moves on the machine, the first ESC semi finished:

1. Russia
2. Armenia
3. Netherlands

The second finished:

1. Australia
2. Ukraine
3. Latvia

Israel was very impressive last night and went down best in the room but is 300-1 to win and will finish around 14th-15th. No opinions on songs required any more.

Top ten imo will be:

1. Russia
2. Australia
3. Ukraine
4. Frogs
5. Sweden
6. Armenia
7. Latvia
8. Serbia
9. Netherlands
10. Austria

That said, I'd not be as certain of the exact order as last year. There's room for manoeuvre between third and sixth, as France and Sweden haven't gone through the voting procedure yet.

[Chompy]

Scuy are 11-2 Australia, a fifth four places. Win part close to the machine, 11-10 a place is incred.

Anyone with BFSB who doesn't mind sticking one on, pm me?

[NoCardDSC]

Flores to leave Watford at the end of the season - Do we think he could do a job at Everton?

[NoCardDSC]

Flores to leave Watford at the end of the season - Do we think he could do a job at Everton?

Available at 33/1 - at a glance, this looks far too big

[TightEnd]

Flores to leave Watford at the end of the season - Do we think he could do a job at Everton?

Available at 33/1 - at a glance, this looks far too big

disagree

they are aiming bigger they want koeman (who of course they may not get). pellegrini has been mentioned

Everton with a new money man think they are a big club and will look to appoint accordingly

watford have taken 16 points from 20 games since Xmas, which ruined the potential of our spread bet. Aso blotted the Quique copybook in the short term

[bergeroo]

Chompy - Going with your predictions. Any value in Netherlands as Top Western Europe at 12-1?
http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/top-western-europe

[Chompy]

Chompy - Going with your predictions. Any value in Netherlands as Top Western Europe at 12-1?
http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/top-western-europe

Froggies are an unknown quantity but I'd be happy to take them on. Netherlands at 12-1 and Austria at 25-1 both fine. Shame it's with PP.

[bergeroo]

UK are 20/1 to finish last on Betfair sportsbook. Worth a tickle or do we think that the likes of the bizarre Georgia song might beat them to the bottom?

[Chompy]

UK are 20/1 to finish last on Betfair sportsbook. Worth a tickle or do we think that the likes of the bizarre Georgia song might beat them to the bottom?

Yep, this is a bet. Absurd price. Take what they'll lay.

[Doobs]

Flores to leave Watford at the end of the season - Do we think he could do a job at Everton?

Available at 33/1 - at a glance, this looks far too big

disagree

they are aiming bigger they want koeman (who of course they may not get). pellegrini has been mentioned

Everton with a new money man think they are a big club and will look to appoint accordingly

watford have taken 16 points from 20 games since Xmas, which ruined the potential of our spread bet. Aso blotted the Quique copybook in the short term

Aren't we on for a place still?  I haven't checked, but thought we should have enough.  Obv Leicester win by a street.

[TightEnd]

Flores to leave Watford at the end of the season - Do we think he could do a job at Everton?

Available at 33/1 - at a glance, this looks far too big

disagree

they are aiming bigger they want koeman (who of course they may not get). pellegrini has been mentioned

Everton with a new money man think they are a big club and will look to appoint accordingly

watford have taken 16 points from 20 games since Xmas, which ruined the potential of our spread bet. Aso blotted the Quique copybook in the short term

Aren't we on for a place still?  I haven't checked, but thought we should have enough.  Obv Leicester win by a street.

two bets

over 35.5 points, currently 44

watford +49 (so 93 net with a game to go) on the handicap paying 4 places.

I was going to ask you if the handicap bet was live.

leicester, west ham, southampton....watford? anyone else?