Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Morning Mr T.

The French open tennis starts today. I backed Thiem for this months ago, I still fancy him for this but the draw has not been kind. A bet on him to win his quarter may be the better way to go as I don't fancy Nadal at all. I looked at the price for a Djokovic/ Murray final but 2-1 is just awful. So for the moment I am looking to individual matches for our fun and merriment.

No underdog stands out as a bet for me today. I want to go against Isner but his opponent, Millman, doesn't often play on clay and when he does he is woeful. The other player I want to be against is Karlovic. Just back from injury his form on clay is terrible. Other than a huge serve he has nothing to offer. He plays the Spaniard Montanes, who has beaten some decent clay courters in the past and got to the semifinal of Marrakech this season. I would have Montanes as a decent favourite today so 9/10 is good.

Suggest £20 Montanes @ 9/10 with Hills.

 I Karlovic vs A Montanes
Back
Odds Decimal
Stake £
Profit £
A Montanes (moneyline)
1.909
20.00
18.18

Because of the rain delays, this is now being played at 2pm today

[TightEnd]

given how solid man u were defensively last year under LVGs very conservative aproach and with Mourinho coming in to take it on, there are worse 10/1 pokes than this aren't there?

bet365

10/1 unbeaten at old trafford in the PL next year

keep de gea (?), couple of defensive additions....more dynamism in the tactics to get the ball forward to the pace up to in martial and rashford and away we go? 

[BigAdz]

given how solid man u were defensively last year under LVGs very conservative aproach and with Mourinho coming in to take it on, there are worse 10/1 pokes than this aren't there?

bet365

10/1 unbeaten at old trafford in the PL next year

keep de gea (?), couple of defensive additions....more dynamism in the tactics to get the ball forward to the pace up to in martial and rashford and away we go? 

Would rather back them at 13/2 for the title than this, but i see the argument. The stuff we have seen this year though, makes me think literally anyone can beat anyone on a given day, not just the big boys.

When you think how poor they were this year, and still they only just missed out on 4th. The Jose factor has to be massive. My Grandad will be turning in his grave but I have to back them at that price.

[Doobs]

given how solid man u were defensively last year under LVGs very conservative aproach and with Mourinho coming in to take it on, there are worse 10/1 pokes than this aren't there?

bet365

10/1 unbeaten at old trafford in the PL next year

keep de gea (?), couple of defensive additions....more dynamism in the tactics to get the ball forward to the pace up to in martial and rashford and away we go? 

This feels like a bet that needs some stats

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/history/records/

Teams unbeaten at home in the premier league

0 – Manchester United (1995/96, 1999/00 & 2010/11)
0 – Arsenal (1998/99, 2003/04 & 2007/08)
0 – Chelsea (2004/05, 2005/06, 2006/07 & 2007/08)
0 – Liverpool (2008/09)
0 – Manchester City (2011/12)
0 – Chelsea (2014/15)

So that is 13 in 23 years, so happens just a bit more than every other year.  Of the current premier league top 6 or so, I'd say Arsenal, Spurs and Man U are most likely.  Leicester are a bit, yeh they can do well again, but to be unbeaten at home is a stretch.  Spurs are playing very well, probably as good as anyone, but they are likely too flamboyant to not lose the odd game.    Southampton doesn't seem very unlikely, Liverpool far too flakey.  Chelsea have still some way to go.

So there are possibly only 3 teams likely and it happens more than every other year, so 10/1 seems a good bet.  I can't find it though

[arbboy]

How many of those were 13/2 to win the league at the start of the season?  I would imagine virtually all of them were shorter or substantially shorter to win the league pre season than 13/2 though?

[TightEnd]

How many of those were 13/2 to win the league at the start of the season?  I would imagine virtually all of them were shorter or substantially shorter to win the league pre season than 13/2 though?

but given the flux in the top six, coming off simultaneous down years etc we could argue that 13/2  might be a very wrong price and that the shape of the front of the PL market this time round ante-post could have a rick or two in it?

so looking at history and saying no 13/2 team has done it is (possibly) irrelevant?

far less predictable league, there to be won and not just by chelsea and city etc etc?

stepping back a bit, what does mourinho have to do to turn a 13/2 shot into a 2/1 shot? not a lot i would argue. keep a player or two, recruit a couple more and most crucially of all get those players playing for him in a style they want to play (ie not being bored by lvg)?

[BigAdz]

13/2 going rapidly.

[Doobs]

13/2 going rapidly.

I noticed that.   How  can I find the 10/1?

[MereNovice]

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/womens/winner

Jelena Ostapenko 250/1 (Ladbrokes and BetVictor)
Recommend £10 e/w.

With the withdrawals, I think she will get seeded (ranked 36) so could get a run for tikay's money. Can look to green out if things go according to plan.

Jelena Ostapenko Womens French Open Winner
250/1 Each Way (2 Places at 1/2 Odds)
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £3,770.00

Things didn't go to plan.
Ms Ostapenko lost 6-4, 7-5 to Naomi Osaka in the first round.
Sensational tipping.

[TightEnd]

13/2 going rapidly.

I noticed that.   How  can I find the 10/1?

go to @stevefreeth on twitter, bet365's media man

posted the price up a couple of hours ago

thats the reference if you need to ring up/ go to support

[BigAdz]

13/2 going rapidly.

I noticed that.   How  can I find the 10/1?

Cant see it on 365

Did notice a season match bet though.

Citeh 4/11 vs Utd 2-1.

Does that represent any value compared to the outright odds?

[Doobs]

Ron Dennis has been speaking to the BBC.  I think I heard that the interview is on 5 live on Wednesday at 7pm.

Here are some snippets

But Dennis told BBC Sport: "I honestly believe that the next world champions after Mercedes will be McLaren. We'll get to that goal before other people.

"It is challenging but I have a firm belief in the technical competence of our people and a firm belief in Honda." 

...

"The 2017 regulations level the playing field and it is enough time for us to catch up with Honda, so I think we'll have a good chance next year," Dennis said.

"I think we can win races. I don't want to predict world championships but I do feel that dethroning Mercedes-Benz is going to be a challenge for everybody and I have reason to genuinely believe we'll get there before anybody else."

Dennis ... said he believed Alonso was "still the best" driver in the world, adding: "It is frustrating not to be able to put him in the best engine-car combination.

"I like his maturity at the moment; he knows what's possible. He is very complimentary of the car at the moment, but that's because it's good."

In addition

Taking the engine performance out of the equation, McLaren believe their chassis is contending with Red Bull for second best on the grid behind Mercedes.

That sounds outlandish judging by the time gap between the cars - Alonso was 1.981 seconds off Lewis Hamilton's pole lap at the Spanish Grand Prix - but the evidence suggests they may well be right.

Engineers say the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is one of the most effective all-round tests of an F1 car's capabilities.

The third sector of the lap is particularly good for separating out the chassis performance from that of the engine as it is predominantly slow and medium-speed corners with a comparatively small number of straights.

In that sector, Alonso was slower only than the Mercedes and Red Bull drivers in qualifying in Spain.

Alonso said: "It is quite positive. The third sector is quite a good reference.

"We are in front of many of our competitors, which is probably a surprise to many people but not to us. It is good to be in front of Williams, Force India, Ferrari.

"We will see in the coming races if we can keep improving our efficiency and mechanical grip."

Finally Button not quite as positive saying their are 3 teams ahead of them for Monaco.  Presumably Red Bull and Ferrari in additon to McLaren.

he expects "three teams who will be in front of us and the rest we can probably fight with".

Shy still have 200/1 Alonso and 250/1 on offer despite refusing to let me bet more than a pound on it for the last week.

[arbboy]

How many of those were 13/2 to win the league at the start of the season?  I would imagine virtually all of them were shorter or substantially shorter to win the league pre season than 13/2 though?

but given the flux in the top six, coming off simultaneous down years etc we could argue that 13/2  might be a very wrong price and that the shape of the front of the PL market this time round ante-post could have a rick or two in it?

so looking at history and saying no 13/2 team has done it is (possibly) irrelevant?

far less predictable league, there to be won and not just by chelsea and city etc etc?

stepping back a bit, what does mourinho have to do to turn a 13/2 shot into a 2/1 shot? not a lot i would argue. keep a player or two, recruit a couple more and most crucially of all get those players playing for him in a style they want to play (ie not being bored by lvg)?

I posted this on the Man U thread 2 weeks ago...

I agree but i don't think this Man U side needs much next season to really kick on.  The key for me is how Rooney's ego copes with not being anywhere near the main man (apart from on the payroll).  If he settles into a new role the front line is open to so much improvement just from natural progression at such young ages that Man U could be seriously scary going forward next season with a couple of signings and a more 'Man U' style attack attack attack manager.  Keeper is only going to improve as well at his age.  I think they are a bet for the league next year at the current prices.

With Adz on this one.  Much rather bet the 13/2 than 10/1 unbeaten.  The 10/1 is a 'mythical' PR price i would imagine as well.  It probably isn't even on their website knowing Freeth. Even if it is the limits on a 1% account will make it pointless. 

[Doobs]

How many of those were 13/2 to win the league at the start of the season?  I would imagine virtually all of them were shorter or substantially shorter to win the league pre season than 13/2 though?

but given the flux in the top six, coming off simultaneous down years etc we could argue that 13/2  might be a very wrong price and that the shape of the front of the PL market this time round ante-post could have a rick or two in it?

so looking at history and saying no 13/2 team has done it is (possibly) irrelevant?

far less predictable league, there to be won and not just by chelsea and city etc etc?

stepping back a bit, what does mourinho have to do to turn a 13/2 shot into a 2/1 shot? not a lot i would argue. keep a player or two, recruit a couple more and most crucially of all get those players playing for him in a style they want to play (ie not being bored by lvg)?

I posted this on the Man U thread 2 weeks ago...

I agree but i don't think this Man U side needs much next season to really kick on.  The key for me is how Rooney's ego copes with not being anywhere near the main man (apart from on the payroll).  If he settles into a new role the front line is open to so much improvement just from natural progression at such young ages that Man U could be seriously scary going forward next season with a couple of signings and a more 'Man U' style attack attack attack manager.  Keeper is only going to improve as well at his age.  I think they are a bet for the league next year at the current prices.

With Adz on this one.  Much rather bet the 13/2 than 10/1 unbeaten.  The 10/1 is a 'mythical' PR price i would imagine as well.  It probably isn't even on their website knowing Freeth. Even if it is the limits on a 1% account will make it pointless. 

If only we could.  betway only now.  Thinking we may have missed the boat here.  I checked the mobile and full sites and never found the 10/1.  Going to move on, things to do.

[TightEnd]

it is reported Zlatan is a done deal too. that's going to nudge the price lower today for sure