Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Arbboy- If you use the meeting in Rome as a guide you have a valid point, Raonic11/10 Kyrgios 8/11.  Any match on clay between the two and Kyrgios should always be a strong fav as the serve has less of a say where as grass is so tough to recover a break.  The Rome prices were way out as all things level you have a super talented player v a very limited player compared to his opponent.  You know what you get with Raonic, so the question you have to ask yourself, which side of the bed will Kyrgios step out of tomorrow.

To fair Kyrgios has a great serve of his own effective across all surfaces.

In 2016
Kyrgios 356 aces from 31 matches
Raonic 346 aces from 34 matches

I agree Kyrgios is the better player once you take the serve out so I'd want to be with the Aussie on this one all things being equal.  But then it will probably be decided on tiebreaks so it's gonna come down to a few key points.  

Serving on grass is way more than just serving aces though.  Pretty crude basic stat to use to compare them.  The aussie is a marginal fav to win Wimbledon on bf over Raonic on the betfair market so maybe the price is close to being right.  Just feels wrong to me.

True - I was just countering the idea that Raonic has a great serve and Kyrgios doesn't.  As far as the match goes, as soon as it is in a rally Kyrgios is favourite to take the point for me.  I do agree though that mentally Raonic is stronger.  Kyrgios also won last 3 meetings across grass, hard and clay.

[arbboy]

Arbboy- If you use the meeting in Rome as a guide you have a valid point, Raonic11/10 Kyrgios 8/11.  Any match on clay between the two and Kyrgios should always be a strong fav as the serve has less of a say where as grass is so tough to recover a break.  The Rome prices were way out as all things level you have a super talented player v a very limited player compared to his opponent.  You know what you get with Raonic, so the question you have to ask yourself, which side of the bed will Kyrgios step out of tomorrow.

To fair Kyrgios has a great serve of his own effective across all surfaces.

In 2016
Kyrgios 356 aces from 31 matches
Raonic 346 aces from 34 matches

I agree Kyrgios is the better player once you take the serve out so I'd want to be with the Aussie on this one all things being equal.  But then it will probably be decided on tiebreaks so it's gonna come down to a few key points.  

Serving on grass is way more than just serving aces though.  Pretty crude basic stat to use to compare them.  The aussie is a marginal fav to win Wimbledon on bf over Raonic on the betfair market so maybe the price is close to being right.  Just feels wrong to me.

True - I was just countering the idea that Raonic has a great serve and Kyrgios doesn't.  As far as the match goes, as soon as it is in a rally Kyrgios is favourite to take the point for me.  I do agree though that mentally Raonic is stronger.  Kyrgios also won last 3 meetings across grass, hard and clay.

John Mac in his corner now as coach for Raonic.  Wonder what has made Mac suddenly enter the coaching world now given he has big TV deals locked up for as long as he wants for all the major stations globally.

[baldock92]

Any love for Patrick Reed at 50's (1/4 odds 6 places) for the us open?

[rinswun]

Any love for Patrick Reed at 50's (1/4 odds 6 places) for the us open?

Yep. I really think this week is going to be about game management and the ability to limit big scores from around the greens. Reed currently leading the Tour in strokes gained around the green.

[baldock92]

Any love for Patrick Reed at 50's (1/4 odds 6 places) for the us open?

Yep. I really think this week is going to be about game management and the ability to limit big scores from around the greens. Reed currently leading the Tour in strokes gained around the green.

Ok cool, I've not managed to watch loads of golf this year but he seems to be able to get himself in good positions and score well. Think a small bet here would be good for Fred.

I'm also on Fitzpatrick straight after watching him at the masters, and Matsuyama.

[Doobs]

Any love for Patrick Reed at 50's (1/4 odds 6 places) for the us open?

Yep. I really think this week is going to be about game management and the ability to limit big scores from around the greens. Reed currently leading the Tour in strokes gained around the green.

Ok cool, I've not managed to watch loads of golf this year but he seems to be able to get himself in good positions and score well. Think a small bet here would be good for Fred.

I'm also on Fitzpatrick straight after watching him at the masters, and Matsuyama.

Will just add that you shouldn't make the mistake of taking a fifth first 7 and assuming it is better than quarter first 6.  It isn't.

[sonour]

If you can get 3.3 then yeah for sure, can't find it on oddschecker though

Best price is 2.3 with PP

[BigAdz]

Any love for Patrick Reed at 50's (1/4 odds 6 places) for the us open?

Yep. I really think this week is going to be about game management and the ability to limit big scores from around the greens. Reed currently leading the Tour in strokes gained around the green.

Ok cool, I've not managed to watch loads of golf this year but he seems to be able to get himself in good positions and score well. Think a small bet here would be good for Fred.

I'm also on Fitzpatrick straight after watching him at the masters, and Matsuyama.

I love Matty but isn't this course supposed to be a monster? Not done any work on it so far, but if it is, just feels like he may struggle vs the big big hitters.

[rinswun]

Any love for Patrick Reed at 50's (1/4 odds 6 places) for the us open?

Yep. I really think this week is going to be about game management and the ability to limit big scores from around the greens. Reed currently leading the Tour in strokes gained around the green.

Ok cool, I've not managed to watch loads of golf this year but he seems to be able to get himself in good positions and score well. Think a small bet here would be good for Fred.

I'm also on Fitzpatrick straight after watching him at the masters, and Matsuyama.

I love Matty but isn't this course supposed to be a monster? Not done any work on it so far, but if it is, just feels like he may struggle vs the big big hitters.

7,200 odd yards. Bombers may have a slight advantage but really it's going to take someone who knows their misses rather than someone who just smashes it off the tee. Sensible course management and a ton of luck required.

[doubleup]

Any love for Patrick Reed at 50's (1/4 odds 6 places) for the us open?

Yep. I really think this week is going to be about game management and the ability to limit big scores from around the greens. Reed currently leading the Tour in strokes gained around the green.

Ok cool, I've not managed to watch loads of golf this year but he seems to be able to get himself in good positions and score well. Think a small bet here would be good for Fred.

I'm also on Fitzpatrick straight after watching him at the masters, and Matsuyama.

I love Matty but isn't this course supposed to be a monster? Not done any work on it so far, but if it is, just feels like he may struggle vs the big big hitters.

7,200 odd yards. Bombers may have a slight advantage but really it's going to take someone who knows their misses rather than someone who just smashes it off the tee. Sensible course management and a ton of luck required.

Think the luck is key, not sure its a great betting heat at all. 

The weather forecast seems to indicate a bit of rain on Thursday/Friday that should be to the advantage of the big hitters.  But the weekend is meant to be dry and hot and if the course dries out that will be a great leveller.

[sonour]

Any love for Patrick Reed at 50's (1/4 odds 6 places) for the us open?

Yep. I really think this week is going to be about game management and the ability to limit big scores from around the greens. Reed currently leading the Tour in strokes gained around the green.

Ok cool, I've not managed to watch loads of golf this year but he seems to be able to get himself in good positions and score well. Think a small bet here would be good for Fred.

I'm also on Fitzpatrick straight after watching him at the masters, and Matsuyama.

I love Matty but isn't this course supposed to be a monster? Not done any work on it so far, but if it is, just feels like he may struggle vs the big big hitters.

7,200 odd yards. Bombers may have a slight advantage but really it's going to take someone who knows their misses rather than someone who just smashes it off the tee. Sensible course management and a ton of luck required.

7,200 yards not particularly long by modern standards.

[rinswun]

No, pretty much average.

I've backed a few for small stakes at big prices. KT Kim, Andrew Johnston, Jon Rahm, Aaron Wise.

[doubleup]

Legend has it that Trevino would offer a bet to any comers -- from fellow elite professionals to spirited members. He would play his own ball from the back tees. His opponent would only have to bring a putter for the journey, as Trevino would allow him to count every green in regulation. But here's the literal rub of the green: Trevino was able to place the opponent's ball any place on each putting surface that he chose. Lowest score would win the match.

And that same legend has it that Trevino never lost.

http://www.espn.co.uk/golf/usopen15/story/_/id/16110891/pain-name-game-oakmont-116th-us-open

[BigAdz]

No, pretty much average.

I've backed a few for small stakes at big prices. KT Kim, Andrew Johnston, Jon Rahm, Aaron Wise.

Just looked at the last Oakmont Open. Hard to believe the first round leader was Nick Dougherty. Must have been the beginning of the end!

Bubba was up there all the way, as were Furyk, Casey and Rose, of those names still competing. The winning score was +5. That sort of score has me instantly thinking its Speith territory. Hardly exciting, but I am still convinced will just blow one of these away one day.

[TightEnd]

i do think a) accuracy off the tee (and then putting it on the right part of the green) and b) putting and scrambling are huge, from everything i read, more than pure length

if the set up is tough, whislt it might not be much of a betting heat i am sure we can stick the tail on a few long priced donkeys and allow variance to do its thing

Kevin Chappell and Kevin Kisner were on my shortlist, particularly Chappell at 100-1

of the big boys anything that favours strategy and putting has to favour Speith, surely