Tips for Tikay

[BorntoBubble]

Man U v Fenerbache.

I think United are still being priced up wrong in the overs/unders market.

The last Europe League game was incredibly dull, it is likely to be a whole different 11 from Monday and a whole different 11 to Sunday BUT it is still the same manager.

Mourinho i think is still going to set up to be happy with 1-0.

I would suggest £15 at Under 2.5 at 9/10 or better.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/man-utd-v-fenerbahce/total-goals-over-under

The other interesting thought i had was that United fans are expecting a "weakened" team. No Zlaton/Rashford and possibly no Martial so i looked towards FGS market, Rooney starting?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/man-utd-v-fenerbahce/first-goalscorer

Henrikh Mkhitaryan caught my eye, rumours are hes starting tonight and I think if the teams get released and we are weakened and Henrikh starts i think he should be closer to 5/1 than the 7/1 offered. 15/2 in some place. He really has not shown his full potential yet but i seriously think he will be a class act in a United shirt.

Thoughts on FGS bets, should you wait for Team News or dive in now?

If hes not starting there is a good possibility that the bet will be VOID anyway.

Feedback on this, I read Henrikh playing wrong but was happy in the fact i was trying to swerve rashford, rooney and ibra in FGS. If i had seen the team i porbably would have gone in on Martial.

On the Over Unders again pretty happy. We lost but i still think we got value, United were gifted two penalties within two minutes which completely changed the game.

[TightEnd]

There has been quite a lot of debating on here over the last few days, but no-one seems to have hit upon the core issue. It's pretty clear to me that tensions are just getting high because we've had two weeks without any F1 .. the withdrawal symptoms are getting too hard to control, but it's the USGP this weekend, so let's get back to normal

Here are my suggestions:

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 6/4 with Paddi/Betfayre/Exchange. You could make a case for Lewis (5/4) or Nico here. Nico has the higher price, so I'm going for him. Simple as that really. Nico should really be the favourite, he has four wins in the last five races compared to Lewis' zero. Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/winner

Pole Position: Lewis Hamilton @ 6/5 with Choral. Despite my Nico tip for the win, I do feel that Lewis will have the edge in qualifying around this circuit. Will be close for sure, but I'm happy to take > EVS. £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/pole-position

Podium Finish: Max Verstappen @ 23/17 with Beewin (13/10 with the exchange is fine too). Two consecutive second places for Max, with Ferrari not having a podium for three races .. 13/10 is too high. Suggest £30.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/united-states-grand-prix/top-3-finish

P.S. Following the Hong Kong ePrix, I'm still in Asia touring the ASEAN countries as I took the whole of October off from work (overdue holiday). Currently in Brunei where online gambling is illegal and the laws are both strict and severe, so I won't actually be placing these bets myself yet. Will do so when I fly back to Hong Kong tomorrow.

Nico Rosberg United States Grand Prix Winner
£20.00 @ 2.62
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £52.34

Lewis Hamilton United States Grand Prix Pole Position
6/5
Total Stake: £20.00


Max Verstappen United States Grand Prix Top 3 Finish
£30.00 @ 2.20
Total Stake: £30.00
Potential Returns: £66.08

[TightEnd]

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/tennis/tie-break-tens/winner

Tie break tens! Weird thing. Basically they play matches up to ten points. That's it. They had one before in London.

You will notice the lineup includes three top pros, Marcus Willis who was last seen being destroyed by Roger Federer at Wimbledon and two long retired guys.

In London they had two groups of three. Pros in one and McEnroe/Henman etc in the other. Top two from each group went through to the semis where the pros had easy wins and the Edmund played Murray in the final.

Question. How much of a favourite can one top pro be in an exhibition tie break vs another?

Of the three, I'd say Tsonga is most likely to play for the lolz/paycheck. Thiem at 4/1 will surely try hard in front of his home crowd. .Murray is the best of course- but how much of an edge can he have?

I can't for the life of me see how some of the retired guys are so short to beat top 10 players even in such a short format. Willis has also not played  tourney since Wimbledon. He has a special wildcard into qualifying for the main Vienna tourney next week.

Suggest £20 on Thiem to win tie break tens at 4/1 with pp/laddies

What do people think?

this is pp/ladbrokes or betway. none of which i can do.

[ripple11]

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/tennis/tie-break-tens/winner

Tie break tens! Weird thing. Basically they play matches up to ten points. That's it. They had one before in London.

You will notice the lineup includes three top pros, Marcus Willis who was last seen being destroyed by Roger Federer at Wimbledon and two long retired guys.

In London they had two groups of three. Pros in one and McEnroe/Henman etc in the other. Top two from each group went through to the semis where the pros had easy wins and the Edmund played Murray in the final.

Question. How much of a favourite can one top pro be in an exhibition tie break vs another?

Of the three, I'd say Tsonga is most likely to play for the lolz/paycheck. Thiem at 4/1 will surely try hard in front of his home crowd. .Murray is the best of course- but how much of an edge can he have?

I can't for the life of me see how some of the retired guys are so short to beat top 10 players even in such a short format. Willis has also not played  tourney since Wimbledon. He has a special wildcard into qualifying for the main Vienna tourney next week.

Suggest £20 on Thiem to win tie break tens at 4/1 with pp/laddies

What do people think?

this is pp/ladbrokes or betway. none of which i can do.

can do if fred wants....

[TightEnd]

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/tennis/tie-break-tens/winner

Tie break tens! Weird thing. Basically they play matches up to ten points. That's it. They had one before in London.

You will notice the lineup includes three top pros, Marcus Willis who was last seen being destroyed by Roger Federer at Wimbledon and two long retired guys.

In London they had two groups of three. Pros in one and McEnroe/Henman etc in the other. Top two from each group went through to the semis where the pros had easy wins and the Edmund played Murray in the final.

Question. How much of a favourite can one top pro be in an exhibition tie break vs another?

Of the three, I'd say Tsonga is most likely to play for the lolz/paycheck. Thiem at 4/1 will surely try hard in front of his home crowd. .Murray is the best of course- but how much of an edge can he have?

I can't for the life of me see how some of the retired guys are so short to beat top 10 players even in such a short format. Willis has also not played  tourney since Wimbledon. He has a special wildcard into qualifying for the main Vienna tourney next week.

Suggest £20 on Thiem to win tie break tens at 4/1 with pp/laddies

What do people think?

this is pp/ladbrokes or betway. none of which i can do.

can do if fred wants....

yes please

[tikay]

Did anyone see the Cricket yesterday? Moeen Ali survived FIVE reviews. Has that ever happened in a single innings before?

Oddly, he would have been out before any of them had Bangladesh reviewed an earlier appeal.

[TightEnd]

Did anyone see the Cricket yesterday? Moeen Ali survived FIVE reviews. Has that ever happened in a single innings before?

Oddly, he would have been out before any of them had Bangladesh reviewed an earlier appeal.

when Root came on a bit earlier, he was the TENTH spinner used in a day and a half

Spinners opened the bowling in both innings

Rare stuff.

[tikay]

The boy (18 years old) Mehedi had quite the day, too. I gather he can bat a bit, too.

What a future he has. He's not old enough to shave yet.



 

[hector62]

Let's begin today with a theoretical question. We have 12 1/4 final tennis matches today,and some fascinating ones too. Now, suppose I have found a really good bet, do people think that given the current climate on here that I would be at all inclined to post it?

Anyway, wasn't yesterday a hoot. Our British Bulldog fought back from the brink of defeat to smite the Spanish conquistador. This thwarted the no doubt planned "rubbish bet, best £500 bet recommend, leave it to the pro's" posts that we have all come to expect.

But fear not, a second line of attack has already begun. Having been mocked as someone who knows nothing about winning at betting on tennis, I am now called out as knowing nothing about rugby league betting either. It was stated that I advocate betting on anytime try scorers in matches when few tries were expected. This is sheer genius. After all Arbboy wrote it, it's about betting, so it must be true. Hell, even I believed it when I first read it.

The genius part is there is no way that I can disprove this. Well there is but it would involve trawling through thousands of pages of this thread, or all 2,000 + posts of mine and I am not doing that.  My only option is to write that I don't agree that I wrote it, and Arbboy would say I did. Well he definitely writes louder than me, although certainly not better, so his view would be seen as gospel. It really is a masterstroke. I have few options other than to enter into a shouting match, and I wouldn't back the outsider in that game. Alternatively I could just reproduce my post from earlier in the month and let people decide on what I what I think the best strategy is in low scoring matches.

It's the grand final in superleague tonight when Warrington face Wigan. Very little between these teams, but I have a slight preference for Wigan. Traditionally these games are nervy and low scoring. As such instead of doing an  anytime try scorer bet I prefer a first try scorer bet. Our old Wigan favourites, Bateman and Williams, are still being priced up a shade too big. It looks like Sandow will return from injury tonight and could well be targeted in his defence, and he defends exactly where these 2 players attack best.

First try scorer £10 both Williams @ 20-1 with Hills, coral or ladbrokes and Bateman @ 18-1 with coral or ladbrokes.

Just in case anyone's forgotten Wigan won a low scoring match, but the try scorer bets were losers.

But amidst all the personal attacks I still found time to be greatly amused by Aarons post about a "which hunt". I am sure there is a word for when an incorrect word that sounds the same is used mistakenly, and I wish I knew what it was, but I do find it amusing when it happens. Personally I find this whole saga more akin to the KKK in the 50's than a witch hunt. I don't know if I am Kunta Kinte, or maybe Chicken George, but I sure is runnin masser. Yes I am aware that those 2 people were from a different century, but give me a bit of poetic license, please.

Some however might see the similarity between all this and the US Presidential debates. Well I did take on board the Michelle Obama quote " When they go low, we go high" and I am content that I have not been dragged down into the gutter.

Amidst all the brouhaha it probably went unnoticed that I am the only underdog getting picked on in this forum that Camel hasn't rode in to defend. So if we are comparing this thread to the Renee one, that must make Arbboy Renee. That makes me Cambridge Alex - ooh I rather like my company.

Just in case some of you may look at this post and think I am leaving, well I am certainly not doing that. Why would I leave when with every post, every tip, every winner that I give I sense their blood pressure rising. You will probably not get any elaborations for a while on why I think something is a bet, but I hope most people will understand why. But Tighty that does  give you a very valid reason not to do my bets for Fred, and I don't have any problem with that. It is just easier to put it on here than send out 27 PM's to people who have requested it.

Some of you may remember the ridiculous stories I wrote a while back, and last night I came up with a peach of a scenario involving some people on here and Donald Trump, but doing that now would definitely be going too low.

[Marky147]

Shame really, as those stories were very good.

[exstream]

I must refresh constantly so I don't miss any upcoming replies that will be deleted lol.

[bergeroo]

Sky's Saturday lunchtime match B'mouth v Spurs.

Bournemouth buoyant after a hull of a game last week, so if someone fancies a couple of little fun bets whilst in the Dog and Duck watching this match, can I suggest Paddy has a bit of value and top prices for first goalscorers for B'mouth.

Junior Stanislas  scored 2 last week (1 pen), 3 in total for the season and joint top scorer so far.
Interestingly after being bought down in the area Callum Wilson grabbed the ball, but in fact Junior took the penalty ,so I think we can assume he is now the nominated penalty taker.

11/1  e/w first 5 1/3 odds

Steve Cook scored last week (comes up for corners/set pieces, good with his feet as well as headers!.)Scored 4 goals last season..and was joint 3rd top scorer for the season ;-)

40/1 e/w  first 5 1/3 odds

Not a dig but never bet ew goalscorers in anything other than a huge one sided mis match where the goal quote for the game is in the 4 or 5 goal range.  Also at Paddy only the first 5 goals count as well.  You can get greater than 4/1 and 14/1 these to score at any time whereas you are taking 11/3 and 13/1 here and if they score 6th in the game you lose as well.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/bournemouth-v-tottenham/anytime-goalscorer

Hector he didn't say that at all, he said never bet each way on first goalscorer in anything but a one sided mismatch, he said you should instead bet anytime, instead of betting each way on the first scorer market because the odds are better and goals above five don't count with some bookies... quoted above.

[exstream]

berg, it was in one of the posts aimed at hector, not that one lol

[TightEnd]

news today

Click to see full-size image.

[Weetabix]

Fair reply doobs , I would say the bookies would be closer to the sock price you mention v Zverev than I would make It which is why I thought the e/w part was more than fair.  I don't think sock is a great certainty today either.