Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

hello

rather than waiting for a lucky15 to fill up

we had £25 e/w out sam with 888 (1/4 1,2,3,4)

[mondatoo]

What price would people want before backing Wawrinka to win Aus Open ? Clearly his record against Federer isn't great but not sure how relevant that is, he's never lost in a final of a Slam (only 3 times though). Don't know that much about Tenns but pretty surprised at his price, guessing thread can't get on with Spoils but 3/1 still seems a good bet to me at various places.

[exstream]

And what price does Stan go off at vs nadal in final if that's the match?
Stan already 2.34 to beat fed

[mondatoo]

And what price does Stan go off at vs nadal in final if that's the match?
Stan already 2.34 to beat fed

Yeah I think both are good bets. Maybe Wawrinka being underestimated as he's still not really a household name with Fed/Nadal overestimated, or I'm just wrong

[TightEnd]

why does Stan have such a poor record against Roger?

something in their styles?

[Horneris]

why does Stan have such a poor record against Roger?

something in their styles?

Rog is 13-0 up on Hard Courts, 1-0 on Grass, yet its 3-4 on Clay.

Quite simply, Fed is a more effective server, gets more first serves in and wins a much higer % of points on his first serve than Stan. This makes a massive different on hard & grass courts.

Stan has improved a lot on hard courts in recent years but this court is very fast and I believe Federer is a bet even when taking into account his 7 months off and age declination variations.

I'm on at 1.76 and I think the current price of 1.71 is still a bet. I make him more like a 1.63 shot.

I think we can see a Fedal final on Sunday morning and I really hope we do  

[arbboy]

why does Stan have such a poor record against Roger?

something in their styles?

Rog is 13-0 up on Hard Courts, 1-0 on Grass, yet its 3-4 on Clay.

Quite simply, Fed is a more effective server, gets more first serves in and wins a much higer % of points on his first serve than Stan. This makes a massive different on hard & grass courts.

Stan has improved a lot on hard courts in recent years but this court is very fast and I believe Federer is a bet even when taking into account his 7 months off and age declination variations.

I'm on at 1.76 and I think the current price of 1.71 is still a bet. I make him more like a 1.63 shot.

I think we can see a Fedal final on Sunday morning and I really hope we do  

What years did the majority of matches take place?  That is the only thing that really matters tbh before you can make a judgement.  Lot of people had shit records against Fed during his prime.  Henman had an awesome head to head v him because he played him loads early on.  Not a fan of raw H2H records tbh.

[TightEnd]

Stan v Fred on a hard court

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Ok.ok.

Sat at Zurich Airport on phone so short/sweet.

Out Sam skybet chase ew

Mentioned as target since start of season so v v hopeful of a run.

Keep drying out and looks chucked in if finding form of last year. 10-1 still looks ok.

oioi, welcome back Adzy.

[Horneris]

why does Stan have such a poor record against Roger?

something in their styles?

Rog is 13-0 up on Hard Courts, 1-0 on Grass, yet its 3-4 on Clay.

Quite simply, Fed is a more effective server, gets more first serves in and wins a much higer % of points on his first serve than Stan. This makes a massive different on hard & grass courts.

Stan has improved a lot on hard courts in recent years but this court is very fast and I believe Federer is a bet even when taking into account his 7 months off and age declination variations.

I'm on at 1.76 and I think the current price of 1.71 is still a bet. I make him more like a 1.63 shot.

I think we can see a Fedal final on Sunday morning and I really hope we do  

What years did the majority of matches take place?  That is the only thing that really matters tbh before you can make a judgement.  Lot of people had shit records against Fed during his prime.  Henman had an awesome head to head v him because he played him loads early on.  Not a fan of raw H2H records tbh.

I despise H2H records as a rule. But there is a reason for this one. Federer wins a lot more points on his serve vs Wawrinkas return on a fast court than Wawrinka does vs Roger's return. My model makes Fed a 1.63 shot and is a stat based model which ignores H2H and takes into account fitness and decline. Ive had a max bet (I'm prepared for sbuse when Stan wins in 3).

[arbboy]

why does Stan have such a poor record against Roger?

something in their styles?

Rog is 13-0 up on Hard Courts, 1-0 on Grass, yet its 3-4 on Clay.

Quite simply, Fed is a more effective server, gets more first serves in and wins a much higer % of points on his first serve than Stan. This makes a massive different on hard & grass courts.

Stan has improved a lot on hard courts in recent years but this court is very fast and I believe Federer is a bet even when taking into account his 7 months off and age declination variations.

I'm on at 1.76 and I think the current price of 1.71 is still a bet. I make him more like a 1.63 shot.

I think we can see a Fedal final on Sunday morning and I really hope we do  

What years did the majority of matches take place?  That is the only thing that really matters tbh before you can make a judgement.  Lot of people had shit records against Fed during his prime.  Henman had an awesome head to head v him because he played him loads early on.  Not a fan of raw H2H records tbh.

I despise H2H records as a rule. But there is a reason for this one. Federer wins a lot more points on his serve vs Wawrinkas return on a fast court than Wawrinka does vs Roger's return. My model makes Fed a 1.63 shot and is a stat based model which ignores H2H and takes into account fitness and decline. Ive had a max bet (I'm prepared for sbuse when Stan wins in 3).

Max bet when you make something 1.63 and you can get 1.76!!!!!  Jesus.  Some people who are nits wouldn't even make that a bet!  haha!  Good luck.

[mondatoo]

Yeah I was referring to the fact he's playing against a different Federer to the one who beat him a lot of those times. Obv Brent knows much better than me about Tennis though, Glgl.

[Karabiner]

Reserve dog wins @10/1 in the prime-time televised 8.56pm at Hall Green but the betty SP is 33/1+

[vegaslover]

Whichever was Fed v Stan goes, I wouldn't be making assumptions on Fed due to age. The 6 months off has rejuvenated him, appears injury for the first time in quite a while

[hhyftrftdr]

Anyone got any thoughts on the Oscars?

I have noticed that you can get a 'Will The Same Movie Win Both The Best Director And Best Picture Oscar? 'Yes' market at 1/2 with B-win, when the best individual prices are 1/4 (picture, La La Land) and 1/7 (director, La La Land again)

Not my cup of tea but looks set to clean up.