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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 5776228 times)
nirvana
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« Reply #126600 on: March 20, 2017, 11:07:34 PM »

Once upon a time one of my bosses said, quite exasperated like, "I'm trying to explain it to you". I just smiled and said "Keep trying"
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rinswun
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« Reply #126601 on: March 21, 2017, 12:03:37 AM »

This isn't an attack Peter, you are clearly a F1 expert and know the sport inside out whilst I have no idea about the strengths and merits of a formula 1 car but if you've got a ticket at 14/1 ew (presume the terms are 1/3, first three?) and the price is now 9/2 to win it all, how can the e/w part be bad value? You're getting the same place price as the current win odds? In a betting w/o the two Mercedes market, where you were betting to a 100% book, what percentage chance would you make Vettel to win?

I would want 4/1 as a minimum - maybe 7/2 at a push. If it's 9/2, that would be good! However, I think it's 1/4.

EDIT: It's 1/5.


Could you post the rest of the prices you'd make the drivers w/o the Williams pair? Given Vettel is as short on the outright as you've made him w/o Hamilton and Bottas, there must be an opportunity to find some others who is going to give us value on the place part of an e/w bet.
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rinswun
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« Reply #126602 on: March 21, 2017, 12:18:55 AM »

Great post Dakka. Really informative and well put together. Cheers.
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Dekka
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« Reply #126603 on: March 21, 2017, 12:39:13 AM »

Great post Dakka. Really informative and well put together. Cheers.

Cheers!  I'm already envisaging re-reading it after all six Renault cars are pathetic in Melbourne and just hanging my head in shame!
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« Reply #126604 on: March 21, 2017, 12:39:45 AM »

Posted pre season about betting shields for the cup + league, they just made the fa vase final 6-1 on aggregate. They really are an amazing team.
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« Reply #126605 on: March 21, 2017, 08:05:13 AM »

Great post Dakka.  Will be interesting to see where Renault are pitched in the spreads for total points.  In the indices they have them in 7th behind Mclaren and Force India.
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Chompy
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« Reply #126606 on: March 21, 2017, 10:32:06 AM »

Posted pre season about betting shields for the cup + league, they just made the fa vase final 6-1 on aggregate. They really are an amazing team.

No prices available?
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tikay
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« Reply #126607 on: March 21, 2017, 10:57:57 AM »

Great post Dakka.  Will be interesting to see where Renault are pitched in the spreads for total points.  In the indices they have them in 7th behind Mclaren and Force India.

Crikey, THAT bad?

Not sure I agree with that. Is there any way we can or should get with Renault in the "Total Points" Market?
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tikay
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« Reply #126608 on: March 21, 2017, 11:00:49 AM »


Have much enjoyed the various views put forward on F1 by a variety of contributors.

Don't forget, for non betting F1 chat, there is a 2017 F1 thread here.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=67394.0


Action gets underway this weekend, though unfortunately at non-friendly hours. Can't wait.

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DungBeetle
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« Reply #126609 on: March 21, 2017, 12:05:12 PM »

Great post Dakka.  Will be interesting to see where Renault are pitched in the spreads for total points.  In the indices they have them in 7th behind Mclaren and Force India.

Crikey, THAT bad?

Not sure I agree with that. Is there any way we can or should get with Renault in the "Total Points" Market?


Quotes are not out for points yet Tikay.  I assume they are doing them over the next day or so.  I'm just going off the constructor indicies which is a market that behaves a bit differently.  If I were to guess Renault points right now I would quote 70 to 80? Probably pitch McLaren 85 to 95?
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« Reply #126610 on: March 21, 2017, 12:21:43 PM »

Great post Dakka.  Will be interesting to see where Renault are pitched in the spreads for total points.  In the indices they have them in 7th behind Mclaren and Force India.

Crikey, THAT bad?

Not sure I agree with that. Is there any way we can or should get with Renault in the "Total Points" Market?


They only got 8 points last season.  The faltering McLaren; 76.  To be fair, I was pretty surprised at the gap too.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #126611 on: March 21, 2017, 12:39:39 PM »


Have much enjoyed the various views put forward on F1 by a variety of contributors.

Don't forget, for non betting F1 chat, there is a 2017 F1 thread here.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=67394.0


Action gets underway this weekend, though unfortunately at non-friendly hours. Can't wait.


Great reading, and I don't even like F1 Cheesy

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DungBeetle
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« Reply #126612 on: March 21, 2017, 01:13:32 PM »

How disappointing.  I don't think there are going to be spread markets for driver/constructor points this year. 
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Dekka
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« Reply #126613 on: March 21, 2017, 03:27:34 PM »

Cheers Dung for the nice comment. 

If Renault manage to finish above Force India (and therefore presumably in the 5th place they are targeting) in the constructors championship I'd be pretty surprised tbh and they'd be delighted.  I think I said in my post that I felt they'd quite possibly be quicker than the Force Indias by the end of the season but I'd still fancy them to be behind them points-wise over the full season itself.

What I can't have is Mclaren in 5th or 6th in the constructors championship and if Tikay's looking for a spot ... rather than getting with Renault I'd be looking to get against Mclaren.

As Doobs points out Renault, whose 2016 car really was woeful, got a miserly 8 points last season and Mclaren totalled 76.  I think if Renault only get 8 points this year they'll still finish above Mclaren.

Teams are only allowed 4 engines per driver each season before taking a penalty.  Mclaren were on Honda engine number FIVE at the end of the two tests at Barcelona this winter.  It was at least 20kmh slower on the straights than pretty much everyone else.  The Honda engine was around 45 - 50 bhp down on the one Mclaren ran in Abu Dhabi last year, although they'd have had it "dialled down" while searching for reliability but it fell down there too. Over the two tests in Barcelona the longest run it managed without failing is some way was eleven laps.  ELEVEN!

All is not well in the Mclaren camp. They're having trouble attracting sponsors which must be tough for the TAG Mclaren marketing team charged with bringing them in.  Over the years they've become used to not having to work at courting sponsors as so many huge global brands wanted to be associated with them.  In my dealings with Mclaren I always felt the whole company were a reflection of Ron Dennis himself and projected ruthlessness, aloofness and an arrogance that's often associated with the top teams and players in sport.  Those attitudes won't be standing them in good stead now that they're struggling.

On the plus side, on paper they do have one of the best driver pairings on the grid but that won't be enough to help them in 2017.  Vandoorne's a superstar in the making who'll be battling with Verstappen for titles in the future but he's new to the grid in 2017 and he's been used to being at the sharp end of races rather than plodding round at the back.  I'm pretty sure Alonso must regret rejoining the team.  Of course he's earnt a fortune thanks to Honda but he would have done that with any other team and he'd have had the bonus of points, podiums and race wins on top.  Alonso's contract is up at the end of the season and he's already said he wants to stay in Formula 1 in 2018.  I think for this 2017 season he'll be far more interested in getting a deal sorted with a top team rather than working hard between race weekends at Mclaren and with Honda to try and somehow drag them out of the hole they look to be in.

I wouldn't be completely surprised if Mclaren scored no points at all this year, that's how much trouble I think they're in.
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #126614 on: March 21, 2017, 03:44:15 PM »

I take on board what you are saying Dekka but what is different from last year for McLaren?  They were abysmal at this stage then (atrocious in terms of pace) as well and somehow managed to cobble together 75 points. 

If somebody wanted to sell McLaren at 40 points against me I'd snap their hands off.  Mind you I'd fully expect them not to score for the first few races.
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