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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 5110529 times)
tikay
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« Reply #126615 on: March 20, 2017, 07:20:33 PM »



Settlement Day

Sorry I'm a day late, bit busy right now.

If anyone is owed by Fred for February bets, let me know please & I'll settle up.

I've settled K4Suited this morning (£40) & will reply to the M from RickBFA shortly.

Any more for any more?

Hi Tikay - You're due me 100 for the Gods Own antepost bet, I'm cool if we want to leave it until after the race though - Less than 2 weeks to go now!!

Details in the spready obv

Cheers

Think I'll settle now, in case things go a bit tits up at Cheltenham. Never been known, obv.

Anyway, it's nice to head into Cheltenham week having paid all my dues, returns (we wish) are all bonus then.

Remind me of your Bank Details please via PM, & I'll get it sorted.

Hi T_Mar,

Did I settle you up for Gods Own (£100)?
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« Reply #126616 on: March 20, 2017, 08:20:08 PM »

This isn't an attack Peter, you are clearly a F1 expert and know the sport inside out whilst I have no idea about the strengths and merits of a formula 1 car but if you've got a ticket at 14/1 ew (presume the terms are 1/3, first three?) and the price is now 9/2 to win it all, how can the e/w part be bad value? You're getting the same place price as the current win odds? In a betting w/o the two Mercedes market, where you were betting to a 100% book, what percentage chance would you make Vettel to win?

I would want 4/1 as a minimum - maybe 7/2 at a push. If it's 9/2, that would be good! However, I think it's 1/4.

EDIT: It's 1/5.

This isn't an attack Peter, you are clearly a F1 expert and know the sport inside out whilst I have no idea about the strengths and merits of a formula 1 car but if you've got a ticket at 14/1 ew (presume the terms are 1/3, first three?) and the price is now 9/2 to win it all, how can the e/w part be bad value? You're getting the same place price as the current win odds? In a betting w/o the two Mercedes market, where you were betting to a 100% book, what percentage chance would you make Vettel to win?

It is a fifth first 3.  Somebody on betfair is currently offering to take 1.9 vettel top 3 right now and has been all night.  I wouldn't rush to take him up.  It is effectively 6 people battling for 3 places and vettel is 2nd favourite of the 6.  We have near 3/1 top 3.  Of course, flukes happen, but 7th in line is Bottas who doesn't represent value at 50/1 top 3 (or so we are told). 

And ofc Peter said "there are some things I recommend", before putting up the multiples. 

I don't normally bother but every f1 bet I put up, Peter says it isn't value.  This one, we must have heard it half a dozen times.  Just glad the damn thing didn't drift.  The damn season hasn't even started yet.



First of all, I did say the "multiple scenario" bets were recommendations in the original post and I probably shouldn't have done, my mistake. Although, I've done them myself anyway because I believe them to be value spots - granted not optimal value, because the singles are more highly priced, but value nonetheless. That actually nicely illustrates my point last week about wild pricing in F1 markets.

You say flukes happen .. but in F1 .. they don't really. The last real "fluke" I can remember happening (although my memory recall is poor!) was Tiago Monteiro scoring a podium at the 2005 US GP when the Michelin runners retired from the race on lap one. That's just one race, and so unbelievably unlikely to happen over an entire season. I'm confused at your Bottas comment?

I do seem to say most of your bets aren't value, but there's a logical reason. I'm always scouring the markets and post when I see value, if I haven't posted it, then I believe it's not value. It's not like Football where different people can find various value spots due to the sheer volume of markets. When it comes to F1, there are only a few markets out there in the first place, and I look at all of them. It sounds like you're possibly taking it personally, but it's certainly not intended that way at all 

It doesn't make any sense

the each way part of this looks sensational

Vettel   14/1   50   £25 e/w 1/5 1,2,3

That's less than 3/1 for the title (14/5, right?  ), I wouldn't be taking that.
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« Reply #126617 on: March 20, 2017, 08:27:09 PM »

No its 14/1 for the title. Just under 3/1 if he finishes 2nd or 3rd or above 50% the current place market price on betfair. I would take that as a w/o Mercedes price, if to want to assume the mercs finish 1-2in the drivers championship, all day every day
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« Reply #126618 on: March 20, 2017, 09:18:47 PM »

This isn't an attack Peter, you are clearly a F1 expert and know the sport inside out whilst I have no idea about the strengths and merits of a formula 1 car but if you've got a ticket at 14/1 ew (presume the terms are 1/3, first three?) and the price is now 9/2 to win it all, how can the e/w part be bad value? You're getting the same place price as the current win odds? In a betting w/o the two Mercedes market, where you were betting to a 100% book, what percentage chance would you make Vettel to win?

I would want 4/1 as a minimum - maybe 7/2 at a push. If it's 9/2, that would be good! However, I think it's 1/4.

EDIT: It's 1/5.

This isn't an attack Peter, you are clearly a F1 expert and know the sport inside out whilst I have no idea about the strengths and merits of a formula 1 car but if you've got a ticket at 14/1 ew (presume the terms are 1/3, first three?) and the price is now 9/2 to win it all, how can the e/w part be bad value? You're getting the same place price as the current win odds? In a betting w/o the two Mercedes market, where you were betting to a 100% book, what percentage chance would you make Vettel to win?

It is a fifth first 3.  Somebody on betfair is currently offering to take 1.9 vettel top 3 right now and has been all night.  I wouldn't rush to take him up.  It is effectively 6 people battling for 3 places and vettel is 2nd favourite of the 6.  We have near 3/1 top 3.  Of course, flukes happen, but 7th in line is Bottas who doesn't represent value at 50/1 top 3 (or so we are told). 

And ofc Peter said "there are some things I recommend", before putting up the multiples. 

I don't normally bother but every f1 bet I put up, Peter says it isn't value.  This one, we must have heard it half a dozen times.  Just glad the damn thing didn't drift.  The damn season hasn't even started yet.



First of all, I did say the "multiple scenario" bets were recommendations in the original post and I probably shouldn't have done, my mistake. Although, I've done them myself anyway because I believe them to be value spots - granted not optimal value, because the singles are more highly priced, but value nonetheless. That actually nicely illustrates my point last week about wild pricing in F1 markets.

You say flukes happen .. but in F1 .. they don't really. The last real "fluke" I can remember happening (although my memory recall is poor!) was Tiago Monteiro scoring a podium at the 2005 US GP when the Michelin runners retired from the race on lap one. That's just one race, and so unbelievably unlikely to happen over an entire season. I'm confused at your Bottas comment?

I do seem to say most of your bets aren't value, but there's a logical reason. I'm always scouring the markets and post when I see value, if I haven't posted it, then I believe it's not value. It's not like Football where different people can find various value spots due to the sheer volume of markets. When it comes to F1, there are only a few markets out there in the first place, and I look at all of them. It sounds like you're possibly taking it personally, but it's certainly not intended that way at all 

It doesn't make any sense

the each way part of this looks sensational

Vettel   14/1   50   £25 e/w 1/5 1,2,3

That's less than 3/1 for the title (14/5, right?  ), I wouldn't be taking that.

The problem is you weren't familiar with the Vettell bet terminology it seems, so need to get comfortable with that before declaring it not to be value.  I don't think Doobs is taking it personally as he has let it slide in the past.  I imagine he's just frustrated at a clear value spot being put down!
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« Reply #126619 on: March 20, 2017, 09:22:16 PM »

Talking of freak results wasn't there a Johnny Herbert win for Stewart when he made an epic tyre selection at the right time?  One of the Hakkinen winning seasons I think.
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« Reply #126620 on: March 20, 2017, 09:46:19 PM »

If anyone sees any bookies with outright markets up for ATP Miami (mens) - please let me know!
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« Reply #126621 on: March 20, 2017, 10:06:02 PM »



Settlement Day

Sorry I'm a day late, bit busy right now.

If anyone is owed by Fred for February bets, let me know please & I'll settle up.

I've settled K4Suited this morning (£40) & will reply to the M from RickBFA shortly.

Any more for any more?

Hi Tikay - You're due me 100 for the Gods Own antepost bet, I'm cool if we want to leave it until after the race though - Less than 2 weeks to go now!!

Details in the spready obv

Cheers

Think I'll settle now, in case things go a bit tits up at Cheltenham. Never been known, obv.

Anyway, it's nice to head into Cheltenham week having paid all my dues, returns (we wish) are all bonus then.

Remind me of your Bank Details please via PM, & I'll get it sorted.

Hi T_Mar,

Did I settle you up for Gods Own (£100)?

Yep you sent the week before, cheers Tikay

I was counting our money as it cruised to the 2nd last with Douvan knowhere to be seen - Still trying to work out how we drew a blank 😮
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« Reply #126622 on: March 20, 2017, 10:59:38 PM »

As I'm a fully fledged masochist who loves a good heated debate I've decided to dip my toes into the feisty F1 conversation!    

Seriously, I'm not looking to be shot down in flames, I just felt this post might add something to the thread as the season kicks off this weekend.  There's only a few clues here from conversations I've had with some F1 insiders recently and a fair chunk about the three teams powered by the Renault engines who haven't had much of a mention in any previous posts.  

Caveat: I've nowhere near the technical knowledge or amount of info that Peter has and I've learnt from lurking on here that I'm definitely not often as shrewd as Doobs!

I worked in F1 on the marketing side for a few years a while back.  I nurtured the West Tobacco sponsorship on the Mclaren's in the late 90s and organised corporate events for TAG Mclaren, Williams, Arrows, Jordan etc so I got to meet some interesting people, some of whom I'm still in touch with.  They keep me up to speed with what's being said behind the scenes and in the paddock which is basically what I'm passing on here.


Ferrari / Vettel

I'll start by saying that of course the Vettel bet @ 14s 1/5 ew is cracking value ... but for plenty of reasons on top of the very obvious ones Doobs and others have pointed out already.

Anyway, here, in italics, is a short summary of what I've been told over the weekend about Ferrari:

Nobody outside of the Mercedes team knows how much they were sandbagging in the tests but it's felt that they held back between 0. and 0..  If it's anywhere near 0. Ferrari are more than a match for them and Ferrari's long run pace in Barcelona really impressed and surprised a lot of people in the paddock.  The Ferrari aero package is clever; they've gone a slightly different way to some of the other teams and it's felt they may have stolen a march on their rivals.  The design seems to allow the Ferrari to work well on all the tyre compounds which hasn't been the case in recent seasons and I'm told this aspect alone could prove to be a game-changer for them.

Vettel likes the wider rear tyres and says they really suit his driving style.  Kimi probably isn't bothered. Apparently Vettel's genuinely excited by this year's car (He's saying this behind the scenes as well as in front of the press).  The car's been reliable in testing too which is always an advantage in the early part of the year. Mercedes are probably still quicker over one lap and with the new 2017 tyres this may be more of an advantage than in previous years as more races are expected to be "one-stoppers".  This means qualifying will be even more crucial than in recent seasons as with less pit-stops there'll be less opportunities for overtaking via undercuts.


And here's my own tuppence worth on Ferrari and Vettel that definitely isn't "expert inside info"!

1) It's not unusual for the prancing horse to go like Frankel in Barcelona at pre-season testing.  Sadly by the tail end of the season they've a habit of looking badly handicapped in a 0-60 at Chelmsford.  Ferrari just don't seem to improve through the season enough to keep pace with the other major runners. If you stand still in F1 you go backwards, and quickly. If they can sort this out in 2017 the Vettel bet obviously looks in even better shape.

2) Ferrari always respect and honour their traditions.  Annoyingly one tradition they've kept going over the years is throwing at least one race win and a couple of podium finishes away by making completely bonkers strategy calls.  They were better when James Allison was around but he's gone to Mercedes now so this is definitely Ferrari's loss and a big gain for Mercedes. He's really talented and will improve Mercedes once he gets established.

3) Bottas, who I think has more natural talent than Rosberg, could prove to be a serious match for Hamilton and if this is the case they will consistently take points off each other which is great for the Vettel bet. Mercedes won't put team orders in place until one of them can't win the championship and this will cost them dearly one year.  On the other hand everything we know about the Ferrari drivers tells us that Vettel will beat Kimi in the vast majority of races.  He's their genuine number one driver and will be supported as such by Kimi and the team.  This could be a big factor in what I think will be a close driver's championship. See the Renault bit below re Verstappen and Ricciardo.

4) I'd make Ferrari odds on to be more reliable than the Mercedes over the season, especially in the early races so I wouldn't be at all surprised if they get an early lead in both championships. I've no opinion on whether Ferrari are value at the currently available 100/30 for the constructors championship but I wouldn't be surprised to see them shorter than that after the first 2 or 3 races.  

4) Finally, one huge advantage for all Ferrari or Vettel backers is that you aren't handicapped by having my money on your side.  I haven't been able to like the team or trust 'em with my bets since Jean Todt, their former team manager and now bigwig at the FIA, started shoving me and calling me a "putain imbécile inutile" at Silverstone in '99.  At the time I was trying to help him get a lift to the hospital in Eddie Irvine's helicopter following Schumacher's accident where he broke both legs after his brakes failed at Stowe Corner.  Our little "scuffle", which was refereed and curtailed by Schumacher's manager Willi Weber, was briefly caught on camera and broadcast live on the Silverstone TV big screens.  Coincidentally my career in F1 ended a couple of months later.  C'est la vie.


Renault, Toro Rosso & Red Bull

Here's a bit about Renault and the other two teams running Renault engines

This weekend I've spoken with someone involved in the works Renault team which had a pretty grim year all round in 2016.  I'm told that for 2017 Renault have completely re-thought their engine design and it's worth noting that they've got plenty of previous for building seriously quick, innovative and reliable championship winning engines. The new power unit proved to be rapid but temperamental at the tests in Barcelona but apparently they've now "completely nailed the problem" which was "something to do with the ERS".  (I can almost see Peter's eyes rolling at this technical info I'm passing on)

They'd already indentified the engine problem on the test beds pre-Barcelona but didn't have the time to fix it.  They weren't surprised that they had problems testing but they were pleased that it was quick with good driveability when it actually ran for a few consecutive laps.  While a lot of this will be down to their excellent aerodynamics I think Red Bull running the new Renault engine were quickest through the speed traps in Barcelona.  I've read and taken on board Peter's posts cautioning about reading too much into the Barcelona times but it's gotta be better to be fastest rather than slowest eh?

In 2016 the works Renault team found themselves in the unenviable position of being slower than the two customer teams that use their engines, Toro Rosso and Red Bull. Renault want this pecking order to change asap.  Over the last winter Renault have thrown a lot of money and resources at their factory in Enstone (where Lotus were based).  All the Renault employees are in good spirits and enjoying their jobs that they hated last year. My pal said it's been like working for a completely different team since the end of last season (but sadly not Mercedes).  Since the 2016 season ended Renault have recruited around 120 new extra staff at all levels of seniority and expertise to focus on developing a decent chassis to complement the new engine.  Last year's car was dreadful and they want to be winning races within 2-3 years.  It'll be too late for 2017 but they've headhunted a new "head of aerodynamics" from Red Bull who's learnt under Adrian Newey.  I can't remember his name, he's very highly thought of throughout the paddock but sadly doesn't start at Enstone till July.   The Renault engines continue to be built and developed in France.  

The official Renault 2017 PR line is that they're aiming to win the midfield battle and they are publicly targeting 5th in the constructors championship, a big leap up from 2016.  As a company they're pretty ashamed to be behind customer teams, they're in F1 for the long term hence the huge overhaul at the factory. They are also in Formula 1 to win championships but they won't be doing a Brawn this year.  If, and it's a huge if, they've got the chassis right they might just spring a few surprises though and I'll be looking to get on the side of Renault whenever there's some value spots in the "points finishes" and "top 6" markets in inclement weather or where the grid's mixed up after qualifying.  I think they're being publicly over-ambitious but I do expect them to be much better than last year, possibly the biggest improvers on the grid and capable of picking up points here and there.

The reality of F1 is that if the top 4 teams get all eight cars to finish a race without any dramas everyone else on the grid is effectively fighting for 9th and 10th so points for all of the midfield teams will be hard to come by.  Not many people expect Renault to be up with Force India and Haas but I think they might be quicker than both by the end of the season.  I guess we'll know a lot more about their raw speed after Australia even if they conk out during the race.  I'll be watching 'em closely.

I'm biased 'cos I knew him as a kid but I think Jolyon Palmer could surprise a few people and outperform his more experienced team mate Hulkenberg so I'll no doubt do my conkers this year backing JP in match bets v The Hulk race after race.  I've followed Palmer's career since he first sat in a go-kart.  He's had pretty average debut seasons in every formula he's raced in with dramatic improvements from year 2 on.  He won the GP2 championship in 2014 on the bridle and had Mclaren's highly coveted new hotshot Stoffel Vandoorne behind him in 2nd with Felipe Nasr 3rd.  Like a lot of people I think Vandoorne is a real talent and in the same cars he would be quicker than Palmer.  Sadly Vandoorne won't be quicker than anyone this year as he's driving a Mclaren.

Renault really like what Palmer brings to the table.  His feedback's excellent, he works hard away from the circuit, he's great with sponsors, comfortable in the team and got a huge boost from being retained this year.  This obviously had nothing to do with his old man opening a new corporate driving event at a circuit he's building in France soon that'll no doubt be filled with Renaults and not a Citreon or Peugeot in sight.

Final comment on the Renault situation is an obvious one if you've made it this far.  "If" Renault have got the engine right the Red Bulls could be a genuine threat to Mercedes and Ferrari at the front of the grid. Christian Horner's been saying nice things about this year's engine which hasn't been the case for a while to say the least!  Both drivers are world class and Verstappen has the potential to be really special.  Maybe they are title contenders too?  LOL.

Good luck with all your F1 wagers and enjoy the season.  I think we could see some really great racing this year.  Hopefully we'll make a few bob too!


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« Reply #126623 on: March 20, 2017, 11:07:34 PM »

Once upon a time one of my bosses said, quite exasperated like, "I'm trying to explain it to you". I just smiled and said "Keep trying"
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« Reply #126624 on: March 21, 2017, 12:03:37 AM »

This isn't an attack Peter, you are clearly a F1 expert and know the sport inside out whilst I have no idea about the strengths and merits of a formula 1 car but if you've got a ticket at 14/1 ew (presume the terms are 1/3, first three?) and the price is now 9/2 to win it all, how can the e/w part be bad value? You're getting the same place price as the current win odds? In a betting w/o the two Mercedes market, where you were betting to a 100% book, what percentage chance would you make Vettel to win?

I would want 4/1 as a minimum - maybe 7/2 at a push. If it's 9/2, that would be good! However, I think it's 1/4.

EDIT: It's 1/5.


Could you post the rest of the prices you'd make the drivers w/o the Williams pair? Given Vettel is as short on the outright as you've made him w/o Hamilton and Bottas, there must be an opportunity to find some others who is going to give us value on the place part of an e/w bet.
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« Reply #126625 on: March 21, 2017, 12:18:55 AM »

Great post Dakka. Really informative and well put together. Cheers.
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« Reply #126626 on: March 21, 2017, 12:39:13 AM »

Great post Dakka. Really informative and well put together. Cheers.

Cheers!  I'm already envisaging re-reading it after all six Renault cars are pathetic in Melbourne and just hanging my head in shame!
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« Reply #126627 on: March 21, 2017, 12:39:45 AM »

Posted pre season about betting shields for the cup + league, they just made the fa vase final 6-1 on aggregate. They really are an amazing team.
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« Reply #126628 on: March 21, 2017, 08:05:13 AM »

Great post Dakka.  Will be interesting to see where Renault are pitched in the spreads for total points.  In the indices they have them in 7th behind Mclaren and Force India.
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« Reply #126629 on: March 21, 2017, 10:32:06 AM »

Posted pre season about betting shields for the cup + league, they just made the fa vase final 6-1 on aggregate. They really are an amazing team.

No prices available?
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