Independence Referendum

[Somerled]

Just out of interest who gets to vote in this referendum?

Is it Scottish born, Scottish residents or people of Scottish descendancy or is there another criteria? Do the rest of the UK have a say in whether they want Scotland to stay or whether they'd prefer them kicked out?

Also do Scottish people's passports say Scottish or just UK the same as the rest of us?

How will they know who's allowed to vote?

At the moment it's any folk resident in Scotland at the relevant time - including EU citizens. Guess it's just done by the Electoral register.


Interesting in today's Scotsman newspaper on page 5 there's a headline "Scots split on Independence" saying that a survey showed 44% against, 43% in favour, rest don't know.......then right at the end "it was a survey of about 100 people".

Then on the following page current bookies odds - 7/1 yes, 1/16 No.

Wonder which stat is the more relevant? 

[George2Loose]

Think if it did happen the England could play hardball. IE: Withdrawal of currency, sanctions etc etc. Depends how bitter the split was.

Personally I would like to see the union remain. I see myself as British, not English. However I know this is not the case with a lot of people.

[mulhuzz]

independence horrible for scotland as they'd no longer be in the EU. gg them.

Hi Daily Mail!

no chance whatsoever this happens. 

hate the daily mail. do have a pretty keen understanding of the european union though, and the chance is a) not nil, and b) likely that Scotland would have to leave the EU. Scotland isn't a signatory to any EU Treaty, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is, though.

If Scotland take independence, they are no longer part of the UK, which means that they are, de facto, no longer part of the EU. Then of course they can reapply for admission as their own nation state (and I welcome their right to self determination) but this might be problematic particularly because France has pledged to hold a referendum on all subsequent EU admissions and could easily use CAP and other EU wide measures as a tool to beat Scotland with.

Plus, for the record, if Scotland becomes an independent state (and good luck to them if that's what they choose), good luck keeping the oil.

[AndrewT]

independence horrible for scotland as they'd no longer be in the EU. gg them.

They would - when Germany unified they remained part of the EU (admitting the bit that wasn't). Scotland declaring independence would be the same in reverse.

Also, there's no way that Salmond would push ahead with it if he hadn't already got the nod from Brussels.

[AndrewT]

Personally I would like to see the union remain. I see myself as British, not English. However I know this is not the case with a lot of people.

Bit of a tangent this, but George mentions a very interesting point.

Being 'English' is something which is seems to be viewed as a white thing. I would say (and am prepared to be corrected if wrong) that most English-born people from an ethnic background would describe themselves as British, whereas English-born white people wouldn't think of themselves in the same way, and describe themselves as English, and only describe themselves as British in counterpoint to something foreign (European/American etc)

[doubleup]

independence horrible for scotland as they'd no longer be in the EU. gg them.

Hi Daily Mail!

no chance whatsoever this happens. 

hate the daily mail. do have a pretty keen understanding of the european union though, and the chance is a) not nil, and b) likely that Scotland would have to leave the EU. Scotland isn't a signatory to any EU Treaty, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is, though.

If Scotland take independence, they are no longer part of the UK, which means that they are, de facto, no longer part of the EU. Then of course they can reapply for admission as their own nation state (and I welcome their right to self determination) but this might be problematic particularly because France has pledged to hold a referendum on all subsequent EU admissions and could easily use CAP and other EU wide measures as a tool to beat Scotland with.

Plus, for the record, if Scotland becomes an independent state (and good luck to them if that's what they choose), good luck keeping the oil.

There is no chance that a referendum will be successfull if Scotland doesn't remain part of the EU, so it will simply never happen.      

As far as the oil is concerned, I think we should keep our share of the nukes to solve that problem.  

[The Camel]

Personally I would like to see the union remain. I see myself as British, not English. However I know this is not the case with a lot of people.

Bit of a tangent this, but George mentions a very interesting point.

Being 'English' is something which is seems to be viewed as a white thing. I would say (and am prepared to be corrected if wrong) that most English-born people from an ethnic background would describe themselves as British, whereas English-born white people wouldn't think of themselves in the same way, and describe themselves as English, and only describe themselves as British in counterpoint to something foreign (European/American etc)

That's interesting, despite my earlier post, I do think of myself as English rather than British.

On a slight tangent, I was in Vegas for a Bellagio tournament and a scottish guy made a final of an event.

They did a little introduction for each finalist

"And in seat 4 from Scotland, in England is..."

The look on the geezers face was a picture.

[mulhuzz]

independence horrible for scotland as they'd no longer be in the EU. gg them.

They would - when Germany unified they remained part of the EU (admitting the bit that wasn't). Scotland declaring independence would be the same in reverse.

Also, there's no way that Salmond would push ahead with it if he hadn't already got the nod from Brussels.

i'd never like to predict what Salmond would do tbh.

also, it's not the same at all - Germany was already a signatory to the EU (plus, as a note, german reunification was pre-Maastricht) and their border was essentially just redefined. This is certainly not the same thing in reverse. In reverse, it would mean, correctly, that the UK had redefined its borders and still remained part of the EU, not that Scotland would automagically accede.

[Jon MW]

independence horrible for scotland as they'd no longer be in the EU. gg them.

They would - when Germany unified they remained part of the EU (admitting the bit that wasn't). Scotland declaring independence would be the same in reverse.

Also, there's no way that Salmond would push ahead with it if he hadn't already got the nod from Brussels.

i'd never like to predict what Salmond would do tbh.

also, it's not the same at all - Germany was already a signatory to the EU (plus, as a note, german reunification was pre-Maastricht) and their border was essentially just redefined. This is certainly not the same thing in reverse. In reverse, it would mean, correctly, that the UK had redefined its borders and still remained part of the EU, not that Scotland would automagically accede.

There was an article on the BBC covering different factors to examine whether Scotland would be better or worse off.

The answer is very much - it depends.

With the EU they could just add Scotland as a member - the UK is a member; Scotland is part of the UK - therefore Scotland is already a member and they just need to work out the paperwork.
Or they could treat Scotland as a new member of the EU - this probably would just be a formality - the 'interesting' part is that all new members of the EU are required to adopt the Euro as their currency. Which is obviously all a bit iffy - but even if Scotland weren't forced to join the Euro because of that, there's no obligation on Westminster to 'allow' them to keep using sterling - and if they did it would mean Scotland would have monetary policy being decided by a foreign country.

The currency issue seemed to be one of the biggest ones because of the knock on effect on business, particularly inward investment to Scotland.

Much more important than oil - the article suggested that with fluctuating oil prices, even if Scotland retained nearly all the oil and even if the oil didn't run out - the Scottish economy would still have regular deficits to make up if it didn't attract enough business - hence the currency question being so key.

My impression was that Scottish independence might provide a slight dent in the rest of the UK's economy (at worst)
but at worst Scotland could get completely screwed over.

[Jon MW]

....  My gut feeling is that there'll be a huge debate about it, it will cost tonnes of money which will all be wasted when they decide to leave things as they are.

this is what I think will happen.

With the added caveat that I think a lot of Scots know the problems that a fully independent Scotland will have so what they really want is the Devolution Max solution - which basically means they'll get all the benefits of independence but without any of the risk.

[MANTIS01]

If Scotland was independent the RBS crisis would have sent them busto already. I was listening to a debate about this on radio 4, some English MP raised the point that without the British bail-out Scotland would be basically Greece with shit weather. The Scottish MP became angry and said he felt Scottish people are shrewder in every way than English people and thus would have predicted the financial crisis better than the English and would have managed it better than the English. I thought good answer braveheart.

[AndrewT]

the 'interesting' part is that all new members of the EU are required to adopt the Euro as their currency.

EU - 'If you want to join us you'll have to adopt this mickey mouse joke money'

Scotland - 'Have you seen our banknotes?'

[George2Loose]

the 'interesting' part is that all new members of the EU are required to adopt the Euro as their currency.

EU - 'If you want to join us you'll have to adopt this mickey mouse joke money'

Scotland - 'Have you seen our banknotes?'

Adopting the currency would cost shitloads too

[doubleup]

If Scotland was independent the RBS crisis would have sent them busto already.

more Daily Mail rubbish. 

RBS was regulated by the smart city boys in London, and it was rescued because of its systemic importance to the UK as a whole.  If the whole situation was replayed under independence the English arm would have been ringfenced and either RBS wouldn't have had the capital for its expansion or it would have been the English company that expanded and went busto (nothing to do with Scotland).

[MintTrav]

My gut feeling is that there'll be a huge debate about it, it will cost tonnes of money which will all be wasted when they decide to leave things as they are.

Deciding to leave things as they are wouldn't necessarily mean that the money spent was wasted.