Playing a set vs posh boy

[giveyourcash]

2/5 game I have ~650 Alex covers, he has somewhat recently won a pot with top boat getting paid off fairly lightly by a bluff catcher and recently has been playing and running pretty good. The night before I lost a buyin to him where he flopped overs and a flush draw, check raised flop and bet called a brick turn.

I open 55 to £15 one caller and Alex calls from the blinds. Flop is

 

Alex donks 25 I raise to 60 one fold and he calls turn is



He donks 135

We??

[pleno1]

how does he view you?

[giveyourcash]

how does he view you?

Probably on the tight side and reasonably straight forward but able to think a level above from time to time. I think im often the worst or second worst reg in Most DTD 2/5 games in terms of raw poker ability.

[rfgqqabc]

Think al probably has something like "I think donk/calling the flop is pretty bad. You're oop with 4 high against an uncapped range with terrible visibilty (i.e. you're basically bluffcatching when you turn gin and you have no showdown value)" this here.

  maybe AT or JTss? I don't hate a call on the flop, it gives us deceptive value but i think making a sizeable raise is probably best. Mr Goulder did once peel vs me in a similar spot with the  and led out on a  because "he had 60% a straight flush" so I guess he could be light as well. Is he ever folding 2pair on the turn if we flat here, and see a brick turn? Any none K/Q/spade, so 12-15 cards to dodge. Flatting leaves £47 plus +50 and a possible flat behind, making it decent to get stack sizes in.

As played this turn just sucks, and its very hard to decide what to do, as we could get FTOP'd here somewhat, folding when he never has us beat, but has  (just thinking about it he can't have this here right?) I think I'd be tempted to shove the turn, after checking the suits of our cards. Fuck him. Our flop raise size should probably be bigger, as I don't feel he is ever folding here unless you make it ridiculous, like £150. Something around £105 seems about right.

In summary, probably some useful shit in this spiel but donk bets are fucking hard to play against

[Whollyflush]

I'd estimate he has a flush a substantial amount of the time, and a hand like KsQx KsJx a small % if the time. A deciding factor may be whether the caller is a fish which will likely widen Alex's range.

[giveyourcash]

Still taking ideas for the turn but for the sake of completeness I'll move on to the river. We flat the turn leaving behind about a pot sized bet of 410. The river bricks the and our erstwhile villain shoves. Call or no call?

[SuuPRlim]

as long as you can have plenty of flushes then you should fold here imo.

If you can't have enough flushes then Alex has the worlds easiest turn semi-bluff/river bluff and against a player of his ilk you are super exploitable.

[pleno1]

i think i lolfold turn

[giveyourcash]

i think i lolfold turn

Any other thoughts anyone? I think im allergic to folding sets.

[cambridgealex]

i think i lolfold turn

Any other thoughts anyone? I think im allergic to folding sets.

folding turn is a bit far fetched, i mean i have a flush here almost every time, but still, pair up 20% and I might be semibluffing or just spazzing out a tiny %.

Tbh, I can't think of any other time I'll have taken this line without a flush.

[EvilPie]

I can't even fold a set at PLO so I can't see any option other than doing my stack here.

[giveyourcash]

i think i lolfold turn

Any other thoughts anyone? I think im allergic to folding sets.

folding turn is a bit far fetched, i mean i have a flush here almost every time, but still, pair up 20% and I might be semibluffing or just spazzing out a tiny %.

Tbh, I can't think of any other time I'll have taken this line without a flush.

mitch syndrome.

[SuuPRlim]

as long as you can have plenty of flushes then you should fold here imo.

can you have a flush here?

[cambridgealex]

as long as you can have plenty of flushes then you should fold here imo.

can you have a flush here?

definitely. without going into to too much detail about my donking strategy - Big draws, and big made hands. The only made hands I can have are TT and AT (and 55) so the hands I donk/call then donk again are all flushes. Obviously I don't always play these hands like this, c/r, c/c etc, but when I do donk, I almost always have one of those ranges, it's literally 1/100 I do something like this with something funky like

[SuuPRlim]

as long as you can have plenty of flushes then you should fold here imo.

can you have a flush here?

definitely. without going into to too much detail about my donking strategy - Big draws, and big made hands. The only made hands I can have are TT and AT (and 55) so the hands I donk/call then donk again are all flushes. Obviously I don't always play these hands like this, c/r, c/c etc, but when I do donk, I almost always have one of those ranges, it's literally 1/100 I do something like this with something funky like

no no I know YOU can have a flush, thats fairly obv and is prolly what you do have lol, but can HE have a flush? if in your opinion in the hand he has very few if any flushes then it becomes more of a call, imo