Had an interesting hand in the £150, £100k GTD at the weekend.
Action:I open the Hijack at 1,000/2,000 (300) to 4,400 with
playing a ~65k stack.
Folds to Villain in the Big Blind who calls from a ~90k stack
Flop =
(Pot: 12k)
Villain checks, I check
Turn =
(Pot: 12k)
Villain bets 6,800, I call
River =
(Pot: 26k)
Villain bets 21,500
Villain:Villain is Jim Moult (bookiebasher) although I think who it is is largely irrelevant, my perception of them is more important. I've only played a little with Jim. My perception of him is that he is a decent to good player, I think he plays fairly tight, and think that perhaps he "tends to have it" in big pots, but expect him to be good enough to be aware of his image and perhaps exploit it at times.
His perception of me? ... I'm pretty sure he knows who I am, he knows my name and we chat a little. So he probably thinks I am a good player but can't tell you much more than that.
Thoughts on this hand:Meh @ fold pre, think it was fine based on the players to my left and my image. I guess I could bet the flop, but think checking is fine given this flop hits his peeling range.
Obviously on the river he is completely polarised. He either has a ten or he doesn't. I think we could have Q9 in this hand and it would be virtually the same.
Even if he were betting for value thinner than a ten, he can't have any sets that don't 3-bet preflop except for 44, of which there is 1 combination. I don't expect him to bet two pair for value here, and we beat almost all 2 pairs that he doesn't 3-bet preflop anyway.
What tens call preflop and bet the turn? I think AT and KT bet the turn 100%. I think QT and JT are somewhat possible, but will check the turn a reasonable amount. 9Tcc and 9Tss are also possible, but don't necessarily bet the turn. All these are potential peeling hands preflop, although I'm not sure he would defend some of these offsuit.
I really thought this was AT, KT or I was good, which is such a narrow range it feels like a call.
However I had a big problem putting him on a hand that bets the turn and then bombs the river that didn't include a ten.
Obviously we expect a lot of hands with showdown value to check here (Which is basically all pairs J+ and two pairs) and don't expect villain to turn many hands into a bluff.
So we essentially beat random dry flush draws that stabbed the turn and are now bluffing, or complete air, unless he turns a few hands like J8cc into a bluff, which just seems really unlikely. It seems unlikely that complete air would stab an ace which hits my check-back the flop range pretty hard. I also don't expect hands like 78ss to bet the turn all that often.
Getting slightly better than 2:1 on a call. Thoughts?
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