WSOP $10k Heads Up (Sold Out)

[The Camel]

I played 3k hu today and was joking around quoting my edge at some ridiculous number but in reality the field was decent , the old cowboys just don't buyin to these comps. The fact you argue a sng player has an edge seems silly to me, il take any decent poker player over any sng player in the world even at this format. Id be surprised if most of these sng pigeons were even break even in the field let alone value, (that has nothing to do with Dan)

Obviously I'm stick my money where mouth is, so any bets people want is fine but I dont wanna antifunk Dan, so obv involving other sng piegeons

I'll take this if you give me 6/5.

I mean, I've got a very small player pool to pick from, you have the rest.

[geordieneil]

pm sent dan, let me know asap.....cheers and gl

[skolsuper]

Actually, with it being a heads up comp, if the prize structure is known it would be trivially easy to work out your precise ROI for a given win %. Can understand if the investors would rather not know though.

Wouldn't you need the EV of the other players in the field to do this?

No. It's a binomial, if Dan just suggest what he expects his win % to be in an average match in this tournament, you can extrapolate how often he finishes in each position. Multiply p (the probability of each finishing position) by P (the prize money for that position), add them all together and you have his expected return. The only assumption is the average win % which Dan will provide.

[geordieneil]

Just had word from the blondie one that he will back me as a gaurantor (tikay) if I can't kick some Singaporean butt in time, please be patient it will arrive but this is Singapore and they like to do things differefent

cut n paste from over ther border but same issues

sort of wish it was hong kong so i could kick off, but singaporeans are sooooooo foooookin polite (irritatingly nice)


bear with me, if u feel the need to free up i can understand, but i know ur gonna bink so it will pee me off a little

[Junior Senior]

1.18 really? Gonna be sick tough field. If it sells out il sell whatever u want at evens as a gamble. Nice kid but obv ridiculous price

Genuine question with no hidden agenda and i have no alliances here but...

i am interested in what you hope to achieve by asking this question? And in making this statement in the thread. You can obviously say what you feel as its an open forum but just interested to understand the motivation behind it.

Thanks

[skolsuper]

1.18 really? Gonna be sick tough field. If it sells out il sell whatever u want at evens as a gamble. Nice kid but obv ridiculous price

Genuine question with no hidden agenda and i have no alliances here but...

i am interested in what you hope to achieve by asking this question? And in making this statement in the thread. You can obviously say what you feel as its an open forum but just interested to understand the motivation behind it.

Thanks

Waitlist me for 5% at evens when this sells out plz dubai

Edit: misread junior's post

[The Camel]

Shipped.

gl

[Doobs]

Actually, with it being a heads up comp, if the prize structure is known it would be trivially easy to work out your precise ROI for a given win %. Can understand if the investors would rather not know though.

Wouldn't you need the EV of the other players in the field to do this?

No. It's a binomial, if Dan just suggest what he expects his win % to be in an average match in this tournament, you can extrapolate how often he finishes in each position. Multiply p (the probability of each finishing position) by P (the prize money for that position), add them all together and you have his expected return. The only assumption is the average win % which Dan will provide.

All very correct, but not sure if you have made the best choice of person to provide the independent estimate of the win percentage.

I expect it is spurious accuracy to factor in tougher average opponents as you go through each round, but should be easy enough on a spreadsheet. 

More importantly, how well does Dan flip, given the possibility of the first round bye? 

[DMorgan]

I played 3k hu today and was joking around quoting my edge at some ridiculous number but in reality the field was decent , the old cowboys just don't buyin to these comps. The fact you argue a sng player has an edge seems silly to me, il take any decent poker player over any sng player in the world even at this format. Id be surprised if most of these sng pigeons were even break even in the field let alone value, (that has nothing to do with Dan)

Obviously I'm stick my money where mouth is, so any bets people want is fine but I dont wanna antifunk Dan, so obv involving other sng piegeons

Are you coming out for the main? Would happily have this discussion but there would need to be alcohol involved cos its pretty dull.

Implying that being a SNG player and being a good player are mutually exclusive is pretty lol though. If we were talking about 9max turbos where nobody beats the rake then I'd agree with you, but we're not.

[DMorgan]

Shipped.

gl

Received, ty

[pleno1]

weird..

[MC]

Implying that being a SNG player and being a good player are mutually exclusive is pretty lol though. If we were talking about 9max turbos where nobody beats the rake then I'd agree with you, but we're not.

+1 to this

I mean this would include Serkules and Moca Choca which is obv ridic

[mondatoo]

Implying that being a SNG player and being a good player are mutually exclusive is pretty lol though. If we were talking about 9max turbos where nobody beats the rake then I'd agree with you, but we're not.

+1 to this

I mean this would include Mondatoo and Longy which is obv ridic

FYP

[MC]

Implying that being a SNG player and being a good player are mutually exclusive is pretty lol though. If we were talking about 9max turbos where nobody beats the rake then I'd agree with you, but we're not.

+1 to this

I mean this would include Mondatoo and Longy which is obv ridic

FYP

<3

[DMorgan]

weird..

fml getting pretty hungry over here