Wizardry Required! (PLEASEEEE)

[youthnkzR]

£5 / £10 - 6 handed (Mr X views Mr Y as a lunatic who plays to a pretty good standard - just likes to put people in spots and has too much money but doesn't donate at all).

Stacks:
Mr X : £2130
Mr Y : £3000

Unopened to Mr Y who opens BTN to £30. SB folds.

Mr X looks down at   in the BB and 3bets to £100. Mr Y calls £100 total. (Pot total £205).

Flop : ( )

Mr X Bets £130. Mr Y raises to £330. Mr X Calls. (Pot total £865).

Turn : ( ) ( )

Mr X checks, Mr Y bets £450, Mr X raises (all in) for £1700 total. Mr Y Calls his range consisting of to   (not a9 and a10 for obvious reasons), all combos of 910 / 1010 / 99 / 22,   ,   ,   ,   ,   ,   , Half the combos of KQ and half the combos of QJ (Pot is £4265).

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Ok guys, what I want to know is:

1. How often Mr X's turn jam has to get through vs Mr Y, if Mr X has 0% equity when called (which is impossible due to his hand), to make his play break even.

2. What Mr X's equity is in the hand with his specific hand (     ) vs This exact range of Mr Y;   to   (not a9 and a10 for obvious reasons), all combos of 910 / 1010 / 99 / 22,   ,   ,   ,   ,   ,   ,  Half the combos of KQ and half the combos of QJ

3. How often Mr X's turn jam has to get through vs Mr Y, if Mr X has (answer to question 2) amount of equity in the hand.

4. When he jams turn, Is Mr X risking £1250 more into a pot of £1765 (£865 + £450 + £450) or is he risking £1700 into £1315 (£865 + £450) ?

Pretty sure I'm being thick here but a few different people have different answers to questions 1 and 3.

[Honeybadger]

I can tell you the answers and (more importantly) show you how to do these sort of calculations. Going to sleep now though. Prod me if I forget to get round to answering...

[willrobrobu]

could be totally wrong/messed up way of doing the calculation, this is based on gcse algebra rather than poker calculations.

1315 won if shove gets through
2130 lost if shove fails to get through w 0% equity

a= % fraction

1315a - (1-a)2130 = 0 (break even)

1315a - 2130 +2130a = 0
3345a = 2130
a = 2130/3345 = 0.6368

=63.7% of the time shove has to get through to break even

no idea where to start working out number 3, imagine its nearer 30-40%, but looking forward to honeybadger's explanation

[youthnkzR]

I can tell you the answers and (more importantly) show you how to do these sort of calculations. Going to sleep now though. Prod me if I forget to get round to answering...

Thanks mate that would be great.

@Rob, thats totally different to what I get haha! 3. should be pretty easy to work out via a program called 'pokerstove', I don't have it on this laptop though and I cant find the download.

[Honeybadger]

1. How often Mr X's turn jam has to get through vs Mr Y, if Mr X has 0% equity when called (which is impossible due to his hand), to make his play break even.

willrobrobu gives the right algebra, but the wrong answer unfortunately (see below). If you are not a maths guy then you will be pleased to learn that the 'complicated' algebra to work this out simplifies down to an easy to remember equation:

Break Even = Bet/(Bet+Pot)

So it is 1700/(1700+1315)

Which is 1700/3015 = 0.5638

So if Mr Y folds 56% of the time then Mr X has a break even bluff.

willrobrobu - you have got the algebra correct but one of the values you have entered is incorrect. Instead of 2130 'lost if the shove fails' it should be 1700, because that is what Mr X has left in his stack on the turn - i.e. his jam size (he did start the hand with 2130, but has put some of this in preflop and on the flop and these chips are now no longer his, they are part of the pot).

2. What Mr X's equity is in the hand with his specific hand (     ) vs This exact range of Mr Y;   to   (not a9 and a10 for obvious reasons), all combos of 910 / 1010 / 99 / 22,   ,   ,   ,   ,   ,   ,  Half the combos of KQ and half the combos of QJ

has approximately 34% equity against the range you ascribe to Mr Y.

3. How often Mr X's turn jam has to get through vs Mr Y, if Mr X has (answer to question 2) amount of equity in the hand.

Mr Y must fold 32% of the time in order for Mr X to have a break even jam.

I can show you the equations for working this out if you want. But tbh, just google 'fold equity calculator' and you will find sites that allows you to enter the variables and will then calculate it for you.

4. When he jams turn, Is Mr X risking £1250 more into a pot of £1765 (£865 + £450 + £450) or is he risking £1700 into £1315 (£865 + £450) ?

Mr X is risking 1700 into 1315.

[Honeybadger]

Just a quick additional note, to explain something that no-one ever seems to understand about break-even calling and bluffing frequencies.

It is really important to understand that if Mr X jams and it turns out that Mr Y is folding exactly 32% of the time then Mr X has LOST THE POT.

32% of folds means that Mr X has made a 'break-even bluff'. However, break-even means EV = 0. In other words, Mr X is indifferent between bluffing and just folding.

If your EV = 0 and there is already 1350 in the pot, then what has happened to that 1350? It has gone to your opponent, obviously. In other words, his EV is exactly the size of the pot - so he has 'won' the entire pot. That's why whenever you have a break even bluff it means you have 'lost the pot' at the point at which you make this bluff.

It is the same if you are ever put in a spot where you have a break-even call. Imagine your opponent jams on you on the flop and you have exactly the required equity, but no more than that, vs his range to make a break even call, given the pot odds you are receiving. This means you have been put in the worst spot possible. You are now completely indifferent between calling and folding. Which means your EV = 0. Which means your opponent's EV = the entire pot. Which means you have LOST THE HAND, regardless of what you decide to do.

 

[cambridgealex]

^A great concept to get your head round.

Interesting the idea that a break even call is the "worst spot possible". Makes sense when you think about it a bit.

[SuuPRlim]

great posts (surprise surprise Stu!)

dumb question, but both players can make +EV plays on a street yes?

[Honeybadger]

dumb question, but both players can make +EV plays on a street yes?

Yes ofc. Provided there is something in the pot to start with then both players can play in a way that makes them money.

To borrow an analogy that you yourself once used... think of the current pot as being like a pie. A nice juicy apple pie. Each player is entitled to a share in this pie, and usually both players get to eat at least some of the pie, even if one gets more than the other. But sometimes one greedy guy is able to steal all (or most) of the other guy's share and eat it all himself. Lucky bastard.

Same in poker. Both players are usually entitled to a % of whatever is in the pot. They are both able to make a +EV play on the same street. But sometimes you get to put your opponent in a spot where he is indifferent between calling and folding, and this means that whatever is in the pot at the moment when you do this is ALL YOURS! Sadly though, sometimes he gets to do this to you, and you go hungry

You cannot do anything to prevent these spots occurring some of the time - when you double barrel a good top pair and get raised on the turn by a strong opponent who has a balanced and polarised range even TPTK has pretty much been turned into a bluff catcher, and you are usually going to be fairly indifferent between calling and folding. It's a pity, but shit happens. However, we should try to avoid this happening any more than is absolutely necessary. Don't let an opponent steal our entire pie any more often than we can sometimes steal his.

Also, don't allow the pies that our opponent is able to sometimes completely steal be too big and juicy and tasty. People who bet hands they shouldn't be betting make this mistake all the time - i.e. guys who overplay their hands, bloating pots with the wrong sort of hands. For example, the check-raise top pair for value/protection in a bad range vs range spot and then when they get 3bet on the flop (or even worse when they double barrel the turn and get raised) their 'value hand' has become a pure bluff catcher that is often very close to indifferent between calling and folding. They have put a LOT of ingredients into what is now a very big tasty pie... and suddenly all (or most) of it gets eaten by their opponent.

[youthnkzR]

Wow! Thanks a lot Stu, this was a lot more than I was hoping for!

Just a quick additional note, to explain something that no-one ever seems to understand about break-even calling and bluffing frequencies.

It is really important to understand that if Mr X jams and it turns out that Mr Y is folding exactly 32% of the time then Mr X has LOST THE POT.

32% of folds means that Mr X has made a 'break-even bluff'. However, break-even means EV = 0. In other words, Mr X is indifferent between bluffing and just folding.

If your EV = 0 and there is already 1350 in the pot, then what has happened to that 1350? It has gone to your opponent, obviously. In other words, his EV is exactly the size of the pot - so he has 'won' the entire pot. That's why whenever you have a break even bluff it means you have 'lost the pot' at the point at which you make this bluff.

It is the same if you are ever put in a spot where you have a break-even call. Imagine your opponent jams on you on the flop and you have exactly the required equity, but no more than that, vs his range to make a break even call, given the pot odds you are receiving. This means you have been put in the worst spot possible. You are now completely indifferent between calling and folding. Which means your EV = 0. Which means your opponent's EV = the entire pot. Which means you have LOST THE HAND, regardless of what you decide to do.

 

^ This is something I've never even given a thought to before. Amazing, cheers mate!

[zerofive]

Too metaphor me

[Rod]

Really useful interesting post here by Honeybadger. Never really understood this concept before.