River Spot in $5 1r1a

[prettygreen]

Villain was fairly nitty until he recieved a gifted treble up and has loosened up a lot since. My bets are usually <1/2 pot, but decided here on turn to rep real strength as opposed to a standard dodgy c-bet (as he comes across as a thinker)

Do we give up now or do we bet riv? If so what size? If we bet are we genuinly showing a hand?

Thoughts appreciated

Seat 1: badzio (61824 in chips)
Seat 3: Perfect1232 (37564 in chips)
Seat 4: domsch (106599 in chips)
Seat 5: HERO (129017 in chips)
Seat 6: KevinThorn (166164 in chips)
Seat 7: ksyushe4ka (17378 in chips)
Seat 8: speedy_mex_6 (105855 in chips)
Seat 9: MBk19 (114794 in chips)
badzio: posts the ante 350
Perfect1232: posts the ante 350
domsch: posts the ante 350
Hero: posts the ante 350
KevinThorn: posts the ante 350
ksyushe4ka: posts the ante 350
speedy_mex_6: posts the ante 350
MBk19: posts the ante 350
MBk19: posts small blind 1400
badzio: posts big blind 2800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Perfect1232: folds
domsch: folds
Hero: raises 2800 to 5600
KevinThorn: calls 5600
ksyushe4ka: folds
speedy_mex_6: folds
MBk19: folds
badzio: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
HERO: bets 9875
KevinThorn: calls 9875
*** TURN *** [ ] []
HERO: bets 23235
KevinThorn: calls 23235
*** RIVER *** [ ] []

[LonOhRay]

Pots 80 and you have 90 back?

In this soft c/f river for me, doubt he ever folds a king on that run out

Would you jam river with KJ?

[prettygreen]

I don't think i'm jamming riv regardless of my hand because board is so dry. If u get snapped for roughly pot size bet then they have KQ+ imo, that is a distinct possiblility in this situation for oppo, so i think if we were to have another pop it would only need to be a 1/3ish bet. The equilibrium where overbetting gets rid of hands that beat us and gets calls from hands that don't beat us is very limited, thats why i think this is a tricky river spot. Likewise if i have KQ+ im probs just value betting to pick stray calls of weaker kings + underpairs. Dont think weaker K than KQ calls shove especially for most of their stack when we are up with the CL.

[prettygreen]

I should add "i'm never jamming river regardless, agaiinst this sort of opponent"

[OverTheBorder]

How deep are we? and any idea of average? I cant see what he call/call/folds its a very thin drawing board....this level you just dont get people on hands

[OverTheBorder]

How deep are we? and any idea of average? I cant see what he call/call/folds its a very thin drawing board....this level you just dont get people on hands

Also on OPR, this guy has been +ve ROI since 2008 in 1000's of games, if he calls and I brick the flop quite bad, I probably dont double barrell, or if I do bet size lower to make it look like value betting, and to keep investment lower and allow more room for maneouvere on river...in summary, I think there will be so many bad players in this tournie, I will pick another spot

[rfgqqabc]

He's nutted here so often. Check/fold.

Might give up on turn but would depend on ingame.