Ept barca day 1

[SuuPRlim]

I mean actually it obviously cant be bad. I just don't think it's THE best play, I think calling is the best play (I think)

[SuuPRlim]

actually, we're OOP aren't we.

Yh feel like raising flop is FTW.

[SuuPRlim]

I think you played the hand great actually lol

river simple fold imo wp nh glgl today :-)

[mondatoo]

I think you played the hand great actually lol

river simple fold imo wp nh glgl today :-)

If villain is steaming that he didn't get to raise the flop why would we want to take such a passive line on turn with the nuts ?

[SuuPRlim]

problem with betting the turn is that most draws now will often just call, we don't know if the steam for not being able to raise is genuine or not either, it's all odd.

Checking seems better than betting, I don't know why people think not raising is a mistake calling seems fine to me.

[mondatoo]

problem with betting the turn is that most draws now will often just call, we don't know if the steam for not being able to raise is genuine or not either, it's all odd.

Checking seems better than betting, I don't know why people think not raising is a mistake calling seems fine to me.

Think if he really is tilted at how the flop played out he could definitely just tilt jam the turn with his draws. If we c/r the turn after he gave the impression he wanted to 4b the flop even the biggest fish is going to know we are super strong.

Unless he's an abs maniac what is he wanting to 4b this flop with, 33, JJ, KThh, T9hh maybe AT and AKhh. Guess he could be rofling around with Axhh.

If we believe he really is tilted then surely we should be trying to get as many chippies as possible in on the turn not taking the most conservative line ?

[AlexMartin]

c/shove turn vs spanish fish obv

this, dont see him bluffing river on too many good cards but do see him betcalling turn with some big combodraws and some weird hands.


As played his river timing is pretty crucial, but dont think im folding.

[DMorgan]

If we agree that

a) his 'attempt to 4b the flop' range is sets and combo draws
b) he bets his combo draws when checked to on the turn a reasonable %age of the time and sometimes calls a jam with them
c) he isn't going to bluff the river if he misses

Then its a clear c/jam turn

He isn't going to hero fold sets, he MIGHT hero fold QJ but thats obv only one combo. If he folds a combo draw thats a win for us because we can't win any more chips on the river if he isn't going to bluff. I'm happy to be convinced that c/raise turn non all-in is better, would have to do some maths though. If he's always calling a c/r to like 14k then it could have better expectation that c/jam but obv with the jam he doesn't have to call as often for jamming to still be better. If you think that there is a chance that he calls a jam with KThh/T9hh then c/jam is clearly going to be best imo. If he is never calling a jam with those hands then there will be an optimal betsize. Its around 14kish.

Thats all bollocks if my assigned range of 33/JJ/combo draws is off or if he's gunna bluff river but I think my assumptions are pretty reasonable.

c/c turn would be cool if this was PLO, or we had information to suggest that he would bluff the river but I doubt we can make that assumption vs rando spanish guy even if he does seems pretty tilted. Stacks are also pretty awkward on the river for him to bluff. I doubt a random guy wants to bet half of his remaining stack or more as a bluff in a 10k. Could be wrong on that though, it is Spain after all.

I don't think I'd ever bet here given that its pretty clear how absurdly strong his range is at this point. Doubt he's pulling some sick reverse tell in orbit one.

Cliffs: c/jam > c/raise > c/c imo

Edit: as played pretty quick river fold imo. Even if he always jams JJ/33 (which is debateable) its probably close but I don't think he's always doing that so I fold pretty quick.