A thread of winter woes and hopefully some cheer?

[pokerfan]

Rick

Re the draw at Southwell

I am always aware of the draw anywere but the draw is usually factored into the market in my opinion.

For example at southwell over 6 furlongs stall 1 and to a lesser degree 2 have a very poor recent record.

Thanks.

I knew I'd read about the draw somewhere.

In David-Lee Priest's book "The Betting Edge" he studied the draw there.

He concluded that for all races over 5 furlongs, ie not over the straight course, for animals within 5lb of the top weight, the outside 4 stalls had a significant advantage.

His sample was taken from races between March 2008 til July 2011. The above criteria had 429 qualifying animals and £100 invested on each returned a total of £36,300.

I have been meaning to follow this strategy since reading this and never got round to it!!

Pick this up from a bargain bin if you can.

[horseplayer]

thanks for very kind comments much appreciated

got the way it ran completely wrong and a nice surprise as at best it looked a dead heat, I bang on a lot on tips for tikay about variance in horse racing there is a prime example any other point of that race the bet is a loser.


running total = £1152.50

My favourite picture from today frankel doing his work this morning


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A435_98CcAAyOp1.jpg

[tikay]

RED ALERT, RED ALERT!

That book (^^^^) is by blonde's very own Chompy.

Best avoided, he has the dreaded Timeform Doube Squiggle. (Not to be trusted, a thorough rogue).

[horseplayer]

7.50 Kempton Oasis Dancer 14-1 vcbet £20 win

a cracking race very much out of place with rest of the card, haven't studied in the depth i would like but instinct says a horse as good on the all weather as oasis dancer shouldnt be 14-1 in any class 2.

One other race i quite like but will wait until tommorow for that one

Thanks again

[tikay]

Lovely bet horsey, well done!

[Leatherman]

Nice one pal. 

[horseplayer]

thank you again

tikay i have sent you a pm sir

[tikay]

thank you again

tikay i have sent you a pm sir

Thank you!

I'll reply tomorrow if I may, I've had a real bruiser with this and that the last few days, and so I'm off to bed shortly, as my battery needs charging.

[horseplayer]

of course no problem

[Karabiner]

Nice one horsey but I feel that you can thank me to some extent for being on the earlier one and failing to check back for the later selection.

[bobby1]

well done mate.top bombing

[horseplayer]

thanks again

the other horse is in the 8.50 tonight at kempton

it looks quite unlikely i will get the price i really want but will update thread if i can nearer the off

[horseplayer]

Horse has drifted a bit so is now a bet

REGGIE PERRIN 8.50 KEMPTON £20 WIN 4-1

Horse has ran fairly well last four starts (last run was to high a class) is still unexposed as a stayer the fav i am far from convinced stays this trip

[horseplayer]

Well two bets one started 10-1 from 14-1 and one 5-2 from 4-1


oasis dancer just ran ok without ever looking like winning really

reggie perrin looked slow and hard work but quite how squad found a 3 length sprint in the final furlong is beyond me sometimes such things happen


almost certain having a day off tommorow wolverhampton looks to tough and the turf racing looks even harder .




running total = £1111.50

[horseplayer]

not a bad card at wolver this evening and a few bets

5.45 wolverhampton

menelik may well be better than these but from the outside box and at 7-4 now i cant have it with anybodys money and as such is taking up far to much of the market in my opinion.

AMETHYST DAWN has run very well since joining this yard, is consistent and this drop in trip looks if anything a plus especially with the 1 draw hopefully can try and make all and 9-2 is a little bigger than expected by me.


7.15 wolverhampton

worried about the money for tartan on first start for baker but the horse has serious temperament issues and unless something has changed in that department would not be for me.

GOAL is a solid horse around here , has a professional jockey back on again is 12lbs lower than when winning here last year and looks likely to go close to me at 5-1.

In the same race vcbet are going 50-1 VICTORIAN NUMBER ok the negatives, the jockey rarely rides a winner, the trainer has never had a winner Positives are has been running perfectly fine here and at kempton generally running its race 50-1 is just to big.


BETS

£30 WIN AMETHYST DAWN 9-2 GENERAL

£20 WIN GOAL 5-1 GENERAL

£10 WIN VICTORIAN NUMBER 50-1 VCBET

£10 EWAY DOUBLE A DAWN AND GOAL at 9-2 and 5-1