Very interesting hand

[Patonius2000]

Think a bluff is just about ok with 6x. I would expect him to be bluffing this river with a very low frequency (particularly given what he knows about your ability to check back strong hands) so it really depends on how often you expect him to fold a flush. Worst hand I'd ship for value is 67.

[Honeybadger]

Think a bluff is just about ok with 6x. I would expect him to be bluffing this river with a very low frequency (particularly given what he knows about your ability to check back strong hands) so it really depends on how often you expect him to fold a flush. Worst hand I'd ship for value is 67.

Pretty much this is what I was intending to say, before I got side-tracked by Guy's idea about how to combat a polarised range. You phrase it a lot better and more succinctly than I would have done though.


Guy, response to you coming soon ...

But just to note: when we consider turning combos of 6x into a bluff we are not doing this to combat a polarised range, we are doing this to combat a de-polarised range. i.e. we are trying to fold out opponent's flushes, not his bluffs. If you believe opponent is polarised when he overbets it would be terrible to try to turn 6x combos into bluffs.

When you said opponent might be turning a small flush into a bluff I think this is pretty insane thinking. If opponent has a flush he is betting it for value, not as a bluff, and his overbet is not polarised.

[pleno1]

hey,

when he went for 80 i figured he always had a big hand such as a flush or trips.

i had 89o

[Honeybadger]

@ Guy

If villain is indeed heavily polarised to (effective)nuts/air then as long as he gets his ratios correct it does not matter whether you call or fold with the non-nutted part of your range; you have 'lost the pot' either way. More specifically, villain needs to have a ~60/40 nuts/air ratio for you to be indifferent between calling or folding (actually 62.5/37.5). So if he is bluffing with the right frequencies then your bluff catchers (and a flush or a straight are now bluff catchers) have EV=0 whenever he makes the bet.

The only thing you can do to make your equity worse than zero is to raise with either a bluff catcher or with air. He will fold about 40% of the time and win your entire stack about 60% of the time!

If your read is that villain is likely to be really out of line with his frequencies (you think he has far too many bluffs in his range) then raising becomes more interesting. But be careful, because if villain is only slightly out with his ratio then recklessly bluffing ATC increases his EV.

As an extreme demonstration of this, do the maths for a 50/50 nuts/air ratio (it is super simple) and you will see what I mean. Note that for villain to have a 50/50 nuts/bluff ratio is obviously terrible - but see what happens to villain's EV when hero jams some of his non-nutted hands.

If villain instead has an extended value range (e.g. small flushes) then turning a few of your made hands into bluffs is important, to put pressure on the bottom of this extended range. Obviously the more depolarised villain becomes, the more your own value jamming range widens - and so the more combos you get to turn into bluffs. Starting with 6x hands is logical obviously.

Does the make sense? It's kinda hard to explain in words... much easier with numbers/formulas, but they can look impenetrable on a forum post. If you are mathsy then do the sums and you'll see it. Or if you like I can put the sums in another post to show you.

[Honeybadger]

@ Patrick

I am interested in your thought process on the river. Your instincts must have been telling you that either a) villain was polarised and massively out of line with his nuts/bluff ratio, or b) villain was heavily depolarised trying to exploit his perception that you will be hero calling a lot here. Which one of these two did you have as the reason for your jam?

I realise that you likely didn't think of it in exactly the same words, and it was probably instinctive. But your instincts follow logic too, and they must have been following one of these patterns. Can you think back and work out what your instincts were actually telling you?

Btw, if villain called you with something like A8 then it is a sick level on his part. And if villain actually bet A8 with the intention of calling your jam (did he call quickly?) then it is even sicker. That said, I'd have to do the maths to work out whether such sickness can sometimes be a profitable exploitative play, or whether it is always completely reckless FPS.

[pleno1]

hey,

will reply when not on phone. but villain tank and waited to the last second (not slowrolling) w/a7hh

[Honeybadger]

More I ponder this hand, the more interesting it becomes. Especially with what is going on beneath the surface with the ranges.

Patrick, given your perception of him having an extended value range (i.e. it includes flushes and 6s), what do you consider your value jamming range to be? Presumably the NF is too thin given that this also marks the likely bottom of his calling range? So it is going to be 76 (or perhaps a little stronger) at the bottom of your value range, right?

His bluff-catching range on the river displays something counter-intuitive. He might have an easier call with a hand like A6 than with a flush. And completely paradoxically, there is even possible that it is an easier call for him with a non-nut flush than with the nut flush! (this last concept is weird though, and would lead you to adjust further your value range)

[Honeybadger]

I think I might have made a silly error in my last post @ Guy. I've been typing all these posts when out and about on my iPhone, so that's my excuse! I will check either later on tonight, or tomorrow.

The logic/concepts are correct... it is the exact figures that might be incorrect, that's all.

Edit: Just checked again in my head, and maths was approximately correct... villain needs a little more than 60% of his betting range on the river to be for value. I am being a bit dim today due to lack of sleep lol.

[SuuPRlim]

can we not fold the turn with 89o here more profitably than doing anything else?

[pleno1]

Villain is swedish and had a v high c/r on both flop and turn I had adjusted by having a good checking back range in the flop but not quite mastered the turn in match.

Jozef thinks cb flop is fine but turn is
A little too thin for value.