What are the odds ?

[the sicilian]

Can someone who knows odds tell me what the odds are on the following :

Last night in the G i play behind Pizzled on the blackjack... he plays the top box which is for 3 of a kind etc..

in 5 hands he hit 2 X 90-1 shots and 1 X 180-1 shot... the 90-1 shots were back to back

[SuuPRlim]

is it not 90x90x180 ?

If it is then i think that's like 1,500,000 - 1 maybe that's a bit high. So actually, I guess i just don't know lol

Happy to have helped

[AndrewT]

is it not 90x90x180 ?

If it is then i think that's like 1,500,000 - 1 maybe that's a bit high. So actually, I guess i just don't know lol

Happy to have helped

Yeah, but it happened 3 times in 5 hands, so divide that by 10 - so about 145,000-1

[Doobs]

I think we are still overstating the odds.  If we sat down and said what are the odds on the next 5 hands containing the two 90/1 shots and a 180/1 shot then AndrewT would be right.  If he has plated 200 hands and there are a whole host of events we would judge unusual then we aren't looking at things properly. 

For example if we just look at the two 90/1 chances in a row.  I think the chance of one following the last one is only 90/1 and unless we are a bit weird then we aren't going to find one hitting unusual.  So we are really just looking at the chance of one following another which is 90/1.  If we are going to also gasp if a 180/1 follows, then the odds of what we perceive to be highly unusual is only 60/1.  Then we can say what is the chance if one of these 90/1 or 180/1 chances happening in the next 3 hands we get down to something like 1200/1.  If we would also find it weird if it happened over 7 hands and in any 3 hands in 7 we get much lower. 

Hope that all makes sense

[George2Loose]

Yeh it's like what are the odds of the same roulette number hitting 3 in a row? It's just as likely as 3 other combos.

Am I right or being a div?

[tikay]

I think you just ignore the first one.

Once you hit ther first, what are the odds of hitting another, sort of thing. (As per Doobsy).

[Tal]

I'm not sure everyone is answering the same question.

If you are asking what are the odds of hitting the first 90-1 shot, that's obviously 90-1.

If you're asking what are the odds of hitting another 90-1 shot immediately after, you discount the first 90-1 and the odds are 90-1.

If you're asking what are the odds of hitting a 90-1 shot AND THEN hitting ANOTHER 90-1 shot immediately afterwards, then you get into 8100-1 territory.

If you're asking what are the odds of hitting a 90-1 shot, followed by another 90-1 shot, followed by a miss, then another miss, then a 180-1 shot, you'd need to know the odds of the miss (whatever that was). It would then be - to get the exact sequence that happened - 90-1 x 90-1 x P(first miss) x P(second miss) x 180-1

If you're asking what are the odds of hitting two 90-1 shots and a 180-1 shot within five hands, where the two 90-1 shots are consecutive, my head hurts. It's less than the one above but more than the others.

Hope this helps but suspect it doesn't.

[kinboshi]

I think it's more easily explained with the example of a dice and the chances of rolling a specific number.

[Tal]

I think it's more easily explained with the example of a dice and the chances of rolling a specific number.

Depends on who's rolling

[Simon Galloway]

It depends on the point you start measuring from.  Whats the chance of hitting back to back 90/1 shots?  If you say "in the next 2 hands" then you can multiply the odds.  If you only start paying attention once the first one is already in the bag, then oifc the odds of the back-to-back are 90/1.  You are measuring from a different point.

As to all the misses amongst a batch of hands.. the maths is simple, you just need to know if order is important or not.  The answer to that will tell you to use Permutaions (nPr) or Combinations (nCr)

[mondatoo]

of hitting a set ?

[Simon Galloway]

Let's give you that pair of ducks Ray.

so there are only 2 desirable outcomes left in the remaining 50 cards.

So on the flop your odds of missing a set are  48/50 x 47/49 x 46/48 = 0.88

So the odds of hitting a set (but note that this doesn't remove the odds of hitting quads, but thats not a bad result anyway..) = 0.12 = 7.5/1 in old money

Think that's close enough.. but been a while since I played with these things...

[Cf]

The question as stated in the OP is made more complicated due to the 5 hand period mentioned and the back to back nature of 2 of the outcomes. So we have to get the combination button out on our calculator.

It's also not clear if it has to be these specific hands or we're counting some of the lesser wins too or excluding them from our allowed results.

In all it's a bit of a headache to work out so i'm going to give an answer in plain English.

It's very unlikely.

[jgcblack]

52

[kinboshi]

The question as stated in the OP is made more complicated due to the 5 hand period mentioned and the back to back nature of 2 of the outcomes. So we have to get the combination button out on our calculator.

It's also not clear if it has to be these specific hands or we're counting some of the lesser wins too or excluding them from our allowed results.

In all it's a bit of a headache to work out so i'm going to give an answer in plain English.

It's very unlikely.

Not as much of a headache as reading your posts with blue text.