Tips by Tighty

[TightEnd]

Updating

Profit £157.74 on £718.25

ROI 21.9%

[RickBFA]

You're probably busy at DTD today.

I've had a look at L1 and L2 tomorrow.

On Coventry are 7/4 at home to Swindon. I think Swindon are wobbling a little.

Like York at 31/16 against Bradford - Bradford drew in midweek and may be tiring/demotivated after Wembley. Promotion looks a long way off now.

Also on Morcambe at 8/5 against Rochdale. Morcambe scored 14 goals in last 6 games. Rochdale scored 2 in last 6.

And Barnet 21/10 at Plymouth. Plymouth struggling at home (last 3 homes games - lost 1-0, drew 0-0 and drew 0-0) and Barnet are under rated for me, they have put together 3 decent results recently.

You got any views on lower leagues this weekend?

[TightEnd]

Not got a lot of time to be look tbh, been touched off on a few things recently too

I have Sheff Wed/Forest, Cov/Swindon and York/Bradford as draw type games over on the Nit thread

[TightEnd]

Short of time

Updating from TfT

Anderson top series bowler E v NZ £20 at 9/4 Stan James

£50 real Madrid to qualify 4/6 on the free bet offer, free bet 11/8 over 3 goals in the match on the refundable

[TightEnd]

Updating

Madrid to qualify at 4/6 won, and I was refunded on the over 3 free bet which missed by a goal

Profit £191.08 on £768.25

ROI 24.87%


Live bets £20 Anderson top series bowler 9/4, Federer £10 e/w Indian wells 11/2 1/2 odds 1,2

[TightEnd]

as per TfT

£25 Ireland 11/10 v France this weekend

[TightEnd]

Smallish Non League bets this weekend

I see a lot of the Southern League, think both prices here are way way wrong, Bet365

Weymouth 4/5 v Banbury £20

Hemel 10/11 at Bedworth £22

Both, in terms of quality, are 1/2 shots v the other side


Add those to the Ireland bet today, and Anderson/Federer outstanding

[TightEnd]

Research notes

PTC Snooker next Tour event starts Tues

The draw is so lopsided it is eye-popping

1    Mark Selby       v       Jack Lisowski         
2    Martin Gould       v       Tom Ford         
3    Marco Fu               v       Mark Joyce         
4    John Higgins       v       Allister Carter         
5    Neil Robertson       v       Jamie Burnett         
6    Barry Hawkins       v       Li Hang         
7    Graeme Dott       v       Xiao Guodong         
8    Judd Trump       v       Alfie Burden    

so the top half has selby, trump, higgins and robertson. These would be the top 4 in the betting pre-draw

     
9    Ding Junhui       v       Andrew Higginson         
10    Robert Milkins       v       Anthony McGill         
11    Mark Allen       v       Mark Davis         
12    Stephen Maguire       v       Joe Swail     

the third quarter has Allen and Maguire, Ding Still much weaker than the top half
   
13    Rod Lawler       v       Cao Yupeng         
14    Ken Doherty       v       Kurt Maflin         
15    Ben Woollaston       v    Mark Williams         
16    Stuart Bingham       v    Joe Perry

the final quarter is extremely weak. Lawler/Doherty and Williams who is out of form.Bingham beat Perry comfortably in Wales

Bingham again. check e/w odds to final. we have a run through to the semi's


check oddschecker

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/players-tour-championship/players-tour-championship-finals/winner

the top four in the market are in the same half of the draw. check

Ding, Maguire, Allen are the next three in the betting. they are in the same quarter. check

Bingham at 22-1 11-1 e/w to final with a run to the semi's that is unusually weak (next lowest odds in his quarter Wollaston 80-1)?

If Bingham can win his quarter we can back to get the stake back on his opponent at the semi

Bazinga.

[tikay]

Love that logic Rich.

Bazinga

[TightEnd]

On 22-1 £10 e/w Bingham. Price should go. Definitely priced up without a proper look at the draw

[TightEnd]

Smallish Non League bets this weekend

I see a lot of the Southern League, think both prices here are way way wrong, Bet365

Weymouth 4/5 v Banbury £20

Hemel 10/11 at Bedworth £22

Both, in terms of quality, are 1/2 shots v the other side


Add those to the Ireland bet today, and Anderson/Federer outstanding

Weymouth won, +16 to the balance

Hemel postponed

[TightEnd]

Updating

Not sure how Ireland failed to win, but they did

Profit £183 on £813.25

ROI 22.5%


Live bets £20 Anderson top series bowler 9/4, Federer £10 e/w Indian wells 11/2 1/2 odds 1,2, Bingham 10 e/w at 22-1

[tikay]

You need a a spready, Rich.

Great results, too.

[TheChipPrince]

Good spot that Tighty.

I didn't have you down as a big snooker fan, how did you come across the draw?

[TightEnd]

Good spot that Tighty.

I didn't have you down as a big snooker fan, how did you come across the draw?

Hope it its a good spot

I am a snooker fan, but more generally I am a bit of a draw anorak across various sports, looking for opportunities


In snooker currently the top 4 in any pre-tournament market are Trump, Selby, Robertson, Higgins

the markets generally pay 1/2 e/w 1-2...so when here you have all four in the same half, there has to be e/w value in the other as prices are longer

More notably here, the bottom quarter is by far the weakest on average ranking. This is a function of where various players finished in their PTC roups in the qualification rounds pre-Xmas

I chose Bingham, but may be the wrong call....we'll see