Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

Stage 3. My picks.

Nacer Bouhanni ftw.

Luca Paolini top 3.

Giacomo Nizzolo, outsider.

[cheapwetsuit]

There are so many riders in the peloton capable of winning this sort of stage that I'm not going to bother trying to whittle it down to a select few. Any one of your selections, Tonji, could do the necessary today. Nonetheless, I have had a fun little bet on Betfair's place market, where I've plumped for Vicioso and Wyss, but I'm not expecting anything back. You'll be hearing a lot more from me when the Giro hits the mountains.

As for yesterday's TTT, the major disappointment for me was the performance of Betancur and his AG2R team. But this was more than made up for by the great ride by Vini Fantini and Santambrogio. I think I might be filling up with more Mauro later today Also, Garmin should really have done better, but Blanco turned in a solid time. Movistar were the most impressive, but I've somehow managed to swerve them in the Team Classification (although I've got Intxausti to podium). Pity about Cobo getting injured, though, as it might hurt their overall chances.

By the way, I think your Spilak pick has gotten me restricted on PaddyPower!?! 

[Tonji]

Sky still keep pushing the boundaries of technology in cycling. The aero skin suits worn yesterday looked to have moulded aero foils on the back.

[Tonji]

There are so many riders in the peloton capable of winning this sort of stage that I'm not going to bother trying to whittle it down to a select few. Any one of your selections, Tonji, could do the necessary today. Nonetheless, I have had a fun little bet on Betfair's place market, where I've plumped for Vicioso and Wyss, but I'm not expecting anything back. You'll be hearing a lot more from me when the Giro hits the mountains.

As for yesterday's TTT, the major disappointment for me was the performance of Betancur and his AG2R team. But this was more than made up for by the great ride by Vini Fantini and Santambrogio. I think I might be filling up with more Mauro later today Also, Garmin should really have done better, but Blanco turned in a solid time. Movistar were the most impressive, but I've somehow managed to swerve them in the Team Classification (although I've got Intxausti to podium). Pity about Cobo getting injured, though, as it might hurt their overall chances.

By the way, I think your Spilak pick has gotten me restricted on PaddyPower!?! 

Hi cws

I didn't see yesterday live. Disappointed in BMC was hoping for better, not sure what happened there.

Liking the Movistar performance, it shows their ambition for the team classification at least. But early days.

The Spilak coup for me was with 365. I tend to spread cycling bets across 365, PP, Sky, Laddies & Unibet, not always taking the best price.

Todays stage bets was an hour research this morning over breakfast, not ideal....never enough time in the day with running my own business.

Keep your views coming cws, always interested.

Good luck.

[Tonji]

Luca, bravo

What a fabulous stage. Love the attacking racing & bombing down the descents.

[Tonji]

highlights

[Tonji]

Click to see full-size image.

Stunning photo from today on the Amalfi Coast. I wanna go there.

[Tonji]

The longest stage of the race, with a tough finish. I'm expecting a group of 20 or so riders to contest the finish.

Favourite: Mauro Santambrogio. His form still looks to be 100% & he must be confident of a high finish in the overall. Showed today he can mix it with the big name GC contenders & has a nifty turn of speed in a sprint. Almost certainly a stage he & his team have designs on winning. 6/1 available in a few spots.

Top 3 pick: Giampaolo Caruso team mate of Paolini, in good form, he could follow Luca's tactic today & attempt a solo break sometime on the final climb. 33/1 best price.

Outsider: Sky won't defend too strongly if a breakaway gets away with some riders that will not trouble the GC. I think this stage may see the Bardiani Valvole team try to nick a stage win. Stefano Pirazzi will be the go to man, 2.45 down on GC, he may get the opportunity. 33/1.

Banzai outsider: Przemyslaw Niemiec. Lampre are now likely to be looking for stage wins with Scarponi's crash today. Niemiec is an ideal rider for this stage so long as he has retained the form he showed in Trentino & Catalunya. 100/1 with our friends at PP 

[cheapwetsuit]

Well done, Tonji. Once again, knowledge is king. Apparently, according to post-race reports, Luca Paolini is a fantastic descender. Obviously this information would have been useful to know beforehand. Watching the highlights, I thought he might clip his head on someone's house, he was gripping those downhill corners so tightly.

It also goes to show that there's money to be made in this cycling game when the stage favourite, Bouhanni, finishes in the last group, 20 minutes behind the winner. To celebrate your run of results, I've maxed out on Niemiec ... a whopping £1.68 e/w. If he comes in, I will surely have my account closed down n1

[cheapwetsuit]

I know I said that I would be putting more money on Santambrogio to podium, but after seeing Intxausti @ 100/1 (to win overall) with Betfred and BetVictor, I've had a slight change of heart. At this early stage of the Giro, Hesjedal looks to be the safe bet for 3rd place. However, I rate Intxausti as being just as capable a climber and time-triallist as the Canadian, and therefore have to jump all over the price offered. I just figure Santambrogio to lose too much time to the other overall contenders over the ITTs. Then again, I will probably eat my words after Mauro storms to victory tomorrow.

[Tonji]

Well done, Tonji. Once again, knowledge is king. Apparently, according to post-race reports, Luca Paolini is a fantastic descender. Obviously this information would have been useful to know beforehand. Watching the highlights, I thought he might clip his head on someone's house, he was gripping those downhill corners so tightly.

It also goes to show that there's money to be made in this cycling game when the stage favourite, Bouhanni, finishes in the last group, 20 minutes behind the winner. To celebrate your run of results, I've maxed out on Niemiec ... a whopping £1.68 e/w. If he comes in, I will surely have my account closed down n1

Close today, well ish!

Bardiani Valvole did get their win, but not with Pirazzi, who did attempt a breakaway, but was never likely to succeed. Others also were in the finishing bunch. But never really a sweat.

Value to be had, particularly in stage racing, the winner & 2nd started at over 50/1. Just needs research to find the edge against the bookies, & a good dose of luck.

Bouhanni again dragging in 17 mins down, either saving himself or just not feeling it?

[Tonji]

I know I said that I would be putting more money on Santambrogio to podium, but after seeing Intxausti @ 100/1 (to win overall) with Betfred and BetVictor, I've had a slight change of heart. At this early stage of the Giro, Hesjedal looks to be the safe bet for 3rd place. However, I rate Intxausti as being just as capable a climber and time-triallist as the Canadian, and therefore have to jump all over the price offered. I just figure Santambrogio to lose too much time to the other overall contenders over the ITTs. Then again, I will probably eat my words after Mauro storms to victory tomorrow.

Betting wise, I've not really looked at the overall since the start. I think I got, like yourself a small EW on Betancur. Some interest in the KOM, but that will play out in the final week I think. Team classification with Movistar & Garmin. Top 10 with Danielson.

Agree re Santambrogio, I think top 10 & one or two stage wins is the best he can hope for. I fear the tough stages ahead & even tougher last week could blunt his form. We'll see.

[Tonji]

Stage 5.

Conundrum for this stage is if Cavendish & the other big sprinters can get over the final climbs. All of which trundled in 17 mins or so down today. Bookies had Cav at 3/1 early but has drifted to 16/1. Frankly I don't have a view yet, tomorrow morning may yield more info but I'm unlikely to be around then.

Only bet for me. Oscar Gatto, purely on price 100/1 EW, & the finish at first glance looks to have the parcours of a one day classic, in which he has had some useful results in this year.

Prices could change dramatically if positive noises come from the sprinter teams & the weather is warm & dry. Also of note, OPQS, OGE & Argos - Shimano riders looked to be saving energy today. Cav wants the red points jersey back, but certainly stage 6 will be better for him.

[Tonji]

Stage 6.

Likely/certainly a bunch sprint, baring crashes.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-6/winner

Cav too short as expected.

EW bet for me is Mattia Gavazzi, 28/1. He has been pedaling at the back of the race, in fact he is plum last overall. I'm hoping he has been saving his energy for this stage after missing out in stage 1 having been caught in the crash.

[Tonji]

How some of the young riders are getting on.