Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

EW bet for me is Mattia Gavazzi, 28/1. He has been pedaling at the back of the race, in fact he is plum last overall. I'm hoping he has been saving his energy for this stage after missing out in stage 1 having been caught in the crash.

He saved a bit, but not enough. 5th

[Tonji]

Stage 7.

Click to see full-size image.

Heck, this stage is difficult to call. If it was a one day race Nibali would be favourite imo. But he is hampered by the following days TT, however he may have the opportunity late on if Wiggins gets isolated on the final climbs. Hesjedal & Evans may also fancy this stage to put the other GC riders under pressure.

Equally a good chance of breakaway succeeding is on the cards. Dilemmas a plenty.

Only bet at the moment is Rubiano Chavez. He is a specialist on this type of parcours. He happily rolled in 6 minutes down today, a good sign perhaps that stage 7 is a target.

More pondering needed.

[Tonji]

Samuel Sanchez is probably only now looking for stage wins. Over a minute behind. This stage looks as good as any for him. EW 33/1.

With Katusha & Luca Paolini looking to defend the Maglia Rosa. His prime support, Giampaolo Caruso may have a chance if they consider the best form of defence is attack. Only 36 seconds down on the overall, I've been impressed. 66/1 feels a decent EW shot.

Looking forward to this stage it could be manic.

[Tonji]

Yesterday had Sir W slip sliding away out of the top 20, down 1.32.



Wiggins is an overwhelming favourite for this stage, he'll will need minutes to get Maglia Rosa. We'll see today if there are any after effects from yesterday & if he has the fight still in him.

Fancy that Nibali & Kessiakoff will be in top 5 todays ITT.

[cheapwetsuit]

Today's ITT in the Giro was a real eye opener, and with the high mountain stages fast approaching, I think I now have all the information I need to make a few recommends. Tonji, it looks like you were right to have Nibali as the pre-race favourite, as I can't see anyone beating him now. He looked very comfortable in the time-trial, and has the beating of Wiggins (and everyone else) in the Alps and the Dolomites.

The markets I'm interested in are the Team Classification (time) and the Young Rider's Classification:

In the Young Rider's Classification, the standings are as follows (with best odds in brackets):
1.   Wilco Kelderman (BLA)   29:50:23        (4/1)
2.   Rafal Majka (TST)            0:00:43        (3/2)
3.   Fabio Aru (AST)              0:01:05        (16/1)
4.   Carlos Betancur (AG2R)    0:02:42        (2/1)

I am really surprised by these odds, and feel that the bookies have over-priced Kelderman and Aru purely on the basis that they are domestiques for their team leaders (Gesink and Nibali respectively), whereas Majka and Betancur have others riding for them. The fact is that Betancur was very disappointing yesterday, in a time-trial that should have suited his limited TT talents. Personally, I was expecting more of a Santambrogio type of performance. Perhaps his outstanding pre-season/Classics form has finally caught up with him, and his legs are feeling a little tired. If that is the case, he has no chance in the high mountains ... and 3 minutes is a rather large gap already. Majka, on the other hand, is in good shape. Although beaten by Kelderman and Aru in the time-trial, it wasn't a whipping, and he has shown that he can handle himself in the mountain stages. The thing that bothers me about his status as 3/2 favourite though, is that he will pretty much be riding the mountains on his own, as Team Saxo-Tinkoff are weak. Add to this the fact that he isn't an obviously better climber than Kelderman or Aru, and the head scratching really begins.

Obviously the bookies think that Kelderman will sacrifice his race for Gesink. But this isn't necessarily so. Gesink has really impressed me thus far, and has a real chance to podium in (if not win) the Giro. But Blanco are strong, with Kelderman, Kruijswijk and Clement all capable climbers. I seriously doubt that the team are hitching all their bets on the Maglia Rosa (not with Nibali in the shape he is in), and if Kelderman is up there with Gesink in the mountains, they will probably instruct him to fight on for both the Team and Young Rider's classifications. Sure, he is young and unproven, but I'm pretty confident in his form and ability, and recommend backing him @ 4/1, while dutching Aru @ 16/1 (he is, after all, the best climber out of the 4, but might sacrifice his race for Nibali).

Next up is the Team Classification (time (not points)). The standings are:
1.   Astana                    88:40:51                   (6/1)
2.   Blanco                      0:00:34                   (7/1)
3.   Sky                          0:02:06                   (EVS)
4.   Lampre-Merida           0:04:55                   (5/1)

No surprises who I'm going for here then. Blanco have the strongest team over all disciplines in this year's Giro. Period. Sky, on the other hand, have the best quality riders. Astana have a lot of riders with problems. I'm not too sure what Lampre are even doing in this discussion.

If you said to me that Sky was going to ride the rest of the Giro as individuals, then I would agree that evens was a fair price, and would call them favourites. The fact is that Sky are not interested in the team classification competition. They want to win the pink jersey, and Wiggins is their man for the job. This means that their tactic over the mountain stages will be to ride the other teams into the ground, so that they cannot break from the lead group. It's a pity for Henao and Uran really, having to sacrifice their races, because they're both in sublime form, but they'll get their chances in the future. Wiggins still has another ITT to contest, and he will be given a certain amount of leeway till then. I'm afraid that, based on current evidence, he will struggle in the mountains (especially if it continues to rain), and will hold his teammates back (like with Froome in the TDF last year).

Astana also have good climbers. Unfortunately, Kessiakoff seems to have caught a bug, and has not yet recovered fully. And Tiralongo has apparently injured his knee. On the flip side, Aru is sublime and Kangert has impressed. However, with Nibali now in the ascendency, you can bet that Astana will not be concerned with anything other than securing the Maglia Rosa, and will forfeit their domestiques' ambitions accordingly. This is not to say that Astana winning the Team Classification is outside the realms of possibility. I just think that Blanco are in better shape, more well-rounded and better motivated to prove themselves as the best team in the Giro. I've already backed them @ 10/1 last week. I've now added a decent sum @ 7/1.

Your thoughts, Tonji...

[Tonji]

Really interesting post cws, thanks.

Young riders, a few of my thoughts.

Rafal Majka, has a couple of Vueltas under his belt, a big advantage over his rivals. 2012 he was 32nd, top Saxo rider after Contador. I'd see him as having a more solid final week than the other three. Agree re his team not as strong, but he looks like he'll be able to make the final selection in the high mountains, but maybe not win. 3/2 is probably too short, but I'd have him as favourite.

Betancur does to me look like he could crack. Being able to recover day after day while riding at the front is generally found after two or three GTs. Although in 2011 he had a decent final week at the Giro.

I'd predict (but based on a little research over coffee this morning):

Majka
Kelderman
Betancur
Aru.

 

[Tonji]

Stage 9.

No bets for me, not really had a look at the betting. Ahead of a rest day, a breakaway may succeed. Betting would be more a lottery than ever, any of 40 riders could podium today.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-9/winner

Bookies favourite is Visconti at 11/1.

Edited: thrown a dart at Rubiano (again)

[Tonji]

Team Classification.

Lampre won the team class in 2012, with Scarponi & Cunego, 4th & 6th.

I wouldn't write them off. Scarponi certainly fancies his chances for top 3, but suspect top 5 is achievable. Niemiec, is the best form of his life. Currently in 9th overall, I'd have him as a solid top 10 finisher.

Re Sky, currently 3 riders in top 10. Bet depends on their tactics to get Wiggins in Maglia Rosa. Will they sacrifice Uran & Henao to achieve it? They will have to change from a team that defends the lead to offensive tactics that put Nibali & Astana under pressure & I'm not sure they can rely on doing it in the mountains. Stage 12 looks like it could be an opportunity to attack ahead of the big mountains.

But agree Blanco look better & looks a good bet @ 7/1. With 4 riders in top 30 & as you say Gesink looking in top shape.

I had bet Movistar (now looks dead in the water) & Garmin. Garmin could still be in with a shout, but requires Stetina & Danielson to have a strong final week. I'm hopeful.

[Tonji]

Weather needs to improve for Wiggins as he seems to have lost all confidence in the wet.

[vegaslover]

Weather needs to improve for Wiggins as he seems to have lost all confidence in the wet.

Wiggins looks shot mentally and we haven't even got to the hills yet. How he thinks he  should be team leader ahead of Froome for TdF is laughable.

Sky need to go for broke imo and try to smash the peleton in first couple of mountain stages

[Tonji]

Great to see Alex Dowsett win the ITT, he made a brave move to leave Sky last year, nice to see it pay off.

[Tonji]

Weather needs to improve for Wiggins as he seems to have lost all confidence in the wet.

Wiggins looks shot mentally and we haven't even got to the hills yet. How he thinks he  should be team leader ahead of Froome for TdF is laughable.

Sky need to go for broke imo and try to smash the peleton in first couple of mountain stages

I don't know how quickly a rider can regain confidence, maybe a few dry days in the mountains.

Rumours that Henao & Uran will be given a free roll to attack at the first opportunity.

Plenty of drama still to come, I'm lovin it.

[Tonji]

A week in & today is a rest day.

Tomorrow, stage 10.



Giro proper starts here in the high mountains. It's a tough stage, but it'll be the first of six extreme days in the mountains over the next two weeks.

[Tonji]

A photo gallery review of stages 1-9.

http://cyclingtips.com.au/2013/05/colours-of-the-giro-stages-1-to-9/

[Tonji]

A few comments from Wiggins in the media:

"Let's be honest. I descended like bit of a girl really after the crash... Not to disrespect girls, I have one at home. But that's life and we have to push on and deal with the disappointments."

On Nibali: "He will continue to ride aggressively. I can't see him trying to defend 30 seconds from now until Brescia,"

On Cadel: "Cadel is the best I've seen him since he won the Tour. He is the danger-man in that position. He showed [in the TT] he is in good shape."

On tomorrows stage: "It will be one of the toughest finishes of this Giro, that's for sure. The race could tip upside down again."