Through the streets vs JP in St.Kitts

[cambridgealex]

can people quote my entire post please - id didnt give the explanation so you can mis-quote and question me

please feel free to tell me how happy people are barelling the river and calling off the crai

We are not playing a hand vs population tendancies (to coin the phrase being punting around) - we are playing vs an absolute sicko who is going to make us wish we were outside in the sun on a tricky river, Im happy playing a smaller pot and trading my image later

We are playing against someone good. We have pretty close to the absolute top our range. We can have bluffs / semi bluffs that we would be betting so we should also be betting our good hands. This is as far as thinking needs to go on the turn.

wp on the red text too vs this very good player

U mad?

It's as simple as this. Vs someone good who I know little about I don't really see much option but to default to a GTO approach. That's all it is. I want to be bluffing / semibluffing sometimes so I have to be value betting to balance that. If I'm value betting and have no bluff range or bluffing and have no (or a too thin) value range then it makes it very easy for someone good to play against me so all I'm trying to do is make myself as tough to play against as possible.

Ye this.

Never checking in a million years. What value hands are we betting if we're checking 5x here? Just full houses? Gl getting those turn barrels through when we have draws next time.

[PaintingByNumbers]

Why do so many players want to take unorthodox (stupid) lines when they are up against a player who intimidates them?
No wonder "markups" are so high!

If you must avoid the river crai, then bet turn and check back the river.

You seem to be suggesting that all his air will bluff into you on the river (after you ch b the turn) and all his SD hands will ch/c the river versus your b/ch/b line. Really?

And even if there is something to this, you think it will make up for the times you miss out on three streets of value?

[Eso Kral]

Ok consensus is all ok so far

Villain min+ check raises the turn to 8400

Wwyd now?

[claypole]

Concentrate on the bowl comp at Luton?

[Eso Kral]

Concentrate on the bowl comp at Luton?

ITM

[Oxford_HRV]

Ok consensus is all ok so far

Villain min+ check raises the turn to 8400

Wwyd now?

13k

[Honeybadger]

Bet turn. Checking is silly and completely FPS. If for some reason you do only want two streets of value then it is much better to bet flop, bet turn and check back river due to the texture of the board.

@ Guy... PaintingByNumbers was only quoting those two small parts of your post in order to highlight the logical inconsistency between them. i.e. If you believe that villain "isn't taking us for a 5" then it is illogical to check back the turn since you have a very clear value bet.

Call the turn check-raise now, planning to call on the vast majority of rivers (barring some spidey sense read/intuition that you may occasionally have in a moment of genius). 3betting the turn protects your hand vs his draws etc, but that is pretty much all it achieves (i.e. it does not really work for value). Villain should be extremely polarised when he check-raises the turn and so your hand is now sort of a top-of-the-range bluff catcher (it does beat most of his 5x hands of course though, but you'll still get value on the river from them because he will almost always bet).

If the river bricks and he checks it is actually going to be tough to get value since he is likely folding his entire range (because he was bluffing the turn and has given up). But I guess you can bet smallish to sometimes get a hero/curiosity call out of any of his bluffs that have random showdown value.

[outragous76]

The issue I have with this hand is people are like "wiiiii trips, we are getting 3 streets "

JP  on the turn has just proved to us that we aren't.

JP is also sick enough to c/r river with his entire range  when we go for value, and pretty much can't call. But yet everyone seems to be happy to barrel  the lot off irrespective of river.

Mr badger, it's far from FPS, like I said in my op, I am sometimes happy to lose perceived value, vs the trade off of hating my life with a hand I know I can't fold. (This is also why it's very much a mis-quote to selectively pick things out when the reason for an apparent deviation from the "norm" is suggested)

[smashedagain]

Yeah guy you can't check.

Just need to get Aaron to come into the thread now and say he would check 

[Honeybadger]

JP is also sick enough to c/r river with his entire range  when we go for value, and pretty much can't call.

If you genuinely think that villain will c/r with his entire river range, then why on earth do you think this is a tough spot and that we "pretty much can't call"? We just call the river check-raise happily. If he really is doing this then, great... we have a nice strong hand with which to pick off his bluffs and we also beat many of his thin value check-raises.

In reality of course nobody is going to be 'sick' enough to check-raise their entire river range, and tbh this would not be 'sick' - it would just be bad play. Villain's river range is going to have a high percentage of mid-strength hands in it (i.e. bluff catchers) whereas hero's range for betting the river is strong and polarised. Why on earth would a good player choose to c/r the river with a mid-strength bluff-catcher type hand?

I've only played with JP a few times, but from what I understand he is a really good player. Really good players don't go around making spewy moves all the time just because they are 'sick'.

[SuuPRlim]

The problem you have is if you take a super passive line with a really good hand (one of the best hands you can have here ofc) against a player as observant as JP then you kinda hold a white flag up to him and say "I'm scared to play big pots against you" and he'll 100% use that to ramp the pressure on you later on. He's a superstar JP but at the end of the day he's OOP to you and he cant see your cards, he's not the type to randomly go berserk either so play strong, or at least don't play weak just cos it's him.

As for the actual hand obviously this is exploitable but I think in a vacuum folding the turn is a very real option, calling here and calling the river prolly isn't a good play here but obviously if we wanna get theoretical you should be making him show you his hand here the vast majority of the time.

[Honeybadger]

As for the actual hand obviously this is exploitable but I think in a vacuum folding the turn is a very real option, calling here and calling the river prolly isn't a good play here but obviously if we wanna get theoretical you should be making him show you his hand here the vast majority of the time.

Dave, you know JP's game well. So presumably this advice ^^ is based on the fact that you believe when JP takes this line he very very often has a fullhouse (44, 54s, 88 or 85s)? This would be the only reason to ever fold to the turn c/r. And it would be a super-exploitative play... basically 'outplaying' villain by taking advantage of his extremely narrow range on the turn by making a big fold.

[SuuPRlim]

Yh i'm posting with the benefit of knowing a lot about JP's game, it might be different if I was playing against him in this hand given that he knows the way I play a lot better than he know's Rich's but from a purely vacuum based observation in game I'd be asking myself what, if he is bluffing, is he trying to make me fold, 99? TT? AJs? I'm sure JP will be well aware WE COULD have a 5 here, after all we bet the flop multi-way and have bet the turn again 44, 56s, 53s, 57s, A5s, (prolly much less likely 88) all very possible for us. I just don't think JP would ever try make someone he knows nothing about to fold a 5 here. (or at the very least a strong range - and our range has to be pretty strong to bet twice here IMO) with the tiny re-raise as well.

I think you'll find you've prolly just run into it more often than not. Obviously folding the turn is an exploitative play and theoretically un-sound but I think that's fairly obvious that in theory our "turn defending range" should include K5.

[Honeybadger]

@ Guy ... This is precisely the sort of problem with making huge adjustments based on a read or perception of an opponent. You're posting saying that JP is 'sick enough' to c/r the river with his whole range. But then Lil'Dave - who knows JP's game pretty well - suggests that he pretty much only has the effective nuts when he c/r the turn, let alone the river. So you'd be making a massive adjustment based on a 'read' that is completely wrong!

(I don't agree with the adjustment you suggested anyway... but that is a different issue and something I have already made clear in a previous post ITT)

@ Dave ... We both agree that folding on the turn here is hugely exploitative. You'd have to be supremely confident in your read about JP's range in order to make such a massive exploitative adjustment. Which is fine of course, if you really are that confident. I've never been so confident in my ability to completely outplay a very good player... and make no mistake about it, if you fold to the turn c/r (and are indeed correct about his range) then you have massively outplayed/exploited JP.

Obviously if Dave's read is correct, and JP really is so tight with his turn (or river) check-raises, then it makes the turn and river absolutely mandatory bets. They'd be bets anyway of course. But if villain is never going to put us in that horrible 'indifferent to calling or folding' spot by c/r the turn or river with a balanced polarised range, then it makes it even more comfortable for us to get three streets of value.

[outragous76]

I'll post more later, I'm obv not suggesting he is stone cold bluffing all of the time, I anticipate it goes without saying there are going to be a tonne of hands in his range that beat us by the river (which include his semi bluffs now)

I'm not in the habit of getting to the point where I'm bluff catching with the top of my range.

We have gone from being in love with our hand to giving theoretical consideration to folding turn with the best possible hand we can have! Well surely we anticipate he can c/r turn, when we bet and have a plan already? Not reasses now?

There are huge advantages to be gained from being seen as passive if you arent!