Hands that got messy at the GUKPT Number 1

[Doobs]

I think the bubble has just burst.  I think there were 8 or so at the table.  Blinds are 4000/8000 ante 1000. 

I think I was UTG, Villian is Marc Wright and he is sat 2 to my left.  He has been sat two to my left on two different tables for several hours (FML).  He knows who I am and has played me online.  No idea what notes he has, but due to his presence two to my left I have avoided a lot of spew during the day.  I am reasonably sure I have been playing tighter than I normally would online.

I have just over 300k at the start of the hand, Marc has been running over the table and has a gazillion (well close to a million).

I open to 16K with    .  Marc calls, everyone else folds.

The flop comes   ,  , 

I bet 25k, he calls.

Turn is  , I check and Marc checks behind.

River is  , I lead 50k, he pauses for a while (maybe 30 secs) and then raises to 130K. We have about 230K back.

I say "why did I bet?" and tank.

What now?

[theprawnidentity]

Unless you have any reason to believe he is raising your value bet with air (or would turn his hand into a bluff) I probably fold.  Can't rule out missed spades though.  When you check back the turn its obviously to turn your hand into a bluff catcher, c/c river imo (which it sounds like you already worked out).

[youthnkzR]

Do you think he would expect you to check  on the turn ? If no then I think it's a call.

[AlexMartin]

Think i prefer bet turn, seems like a good chunk of value and im not concerned about being bluffed, think this is probably close to the bottom of turn double range utg v mp.

 i dislike this exact line as i think its actually too thin for value against this player, i think he will vbet thinner than he will call and we allow him to play his turn checkback range (10X, gutters, weak Ax and fd's) perfectly.

[Patonius2000]

Interested to hear what people think of betting vs checking the turn. I think it's close, although I'd be inclined to check flop if you're going to take a line like this particularly as your perceived opening range is probably v tight. He'l value own himself on good runouts and bluff it off some. Rather have a bdfd with this line but whatever.

River bet is really bad because he'l probably just fold his missed spades and maybe Ax, both of which he is kind've obliged to bet when checked to. Your line looks super strong imo and very value heavy. I think it's a pretty straightforward fold now - you could jam but that'd be probably be spew.

[pleno1]

20k ott/tank, call, snap river vs villain.

[Doobs]

I tanked for a while, and he called the clock.  It was probably fair.  I am not sure how long I was and had almost called a couple of times before thinking better of it, though was nearer two minutes than five.  I have been trying to think a bit longer these days when I have a tough decision live, I used to pretty much snap do most things.  Of course I still fold pretty quickly if there isn't much thinking needed.

Does calling the clock change anything?  I am still a bit of a live fish (and online fish too, before pleno pipes up!).

[pleno1]

Not fish. It's probably weak because Sam grafting did it to him and he hero folded. But who knows.

[railtard1]

Not fish. It's probably weak because Sam grafting did it to him and he hero folded. But who knows.

Way off the mark in regards to why I called a clock.
I'll post my thoughts on this hand when doobs gives results.
I actually liked my line in this hand fwiw. And agree with Alex's comments l