ISPT Forfeiting your Day 2 Stack (And Any Other Thoughts)

[FUN4FRASER]

Hi Guys

The ISPT 300 Euro Day 2 satelites are nearly upon us  , 7 online and 3 live (10 in total )

I think its fair to say this is a unique event with a lot new ideas and innovative concepts, so with a great deal of money at stake I thought it prudent to discuss and hopefully understand all potential variables

One thing in particular that has made me think Is the value of the Day 2 stack .

Ill try and start with the basic facts as I see them (pretty sure Ive got the information right but please correct me if wrong)


So...The buy in for the event is 2700 Euros + reg fee = 3000E  for that you get 50000 chips

The satelites cost 270 Euros + reg fee = 300E and for that you get 5000 chips ( both live and online ) 

Nice and easy to understand ( so far ) as everything is exactly 10 percent . Now its starts to get a tad complicated.

As you are aware  you can enter multiple day 1s so should you be lucky enough to make Day 2 you have options  ...so I  ask the question

What is the smallest stack you are willing to forfeit or play ?

So bearing in mind the blinds will re start on day 2 at 100/200 and the direct buy in players will have 50K..I think its fair to say that any stack 25/30k plus is very playable

Lets assume  you made day 2 with a smaller stack say 20K  ,In theory your stack is worth 1200 Euros (40% of a 50k stack) however you may want to think about other things such as the cost of travel and accommodation but then of course there is the" you were there at Wembley " angle  which possibly  makes it worthwhile  just for the experience.

One very important thing to bear in mind is that if you have made Day2  with a short stack and you do decide to have another go then you immediately forfeit your first stack so theoretically you could of been going to Wembley ( be it with a SS ) and then not make the top 10 percent again. Also you have to remember there are refunds available for unused 300E tokens after you have qualified so one more thing to consider.

With so many imponderables it could be potential minefield for stakers and stakees , and to that end I had a quick chat with Ray about his "7 bullet " staking plan which made me realise Ray has to consider a decision for his backers too (Its like anything though with good communication and clarity there will be no problems)


Maybe Im making this sound too complicated as its quite feasible all of the Top Ten Percent will go through with  40/50/60K plus stacks but with the sums involved its worth considering every eventuality.


Anyway ...Its Food for Thought .

Good Luck to All those That Play .

Cheers

Fraser

[Boba Fett]

I was wondering the same myself. I have further to travel so I dunno if that should factor in what stack I'm willing to go with. Also, doesn't something like 75% of day 2 make the money?

[outragous76]

yes but min cash isnt 6k ergo, day 2 seat not worth 3k (as in in you make day 2 with 50K stack via a day 1 and want to sell)

[smurf]

I have two day ones and will try for a third on Sunday, getting to day 2 itself won't be that easy with 90% of the field missing out on each day one so I would think pretty much any stack is playable - even 10k is an early shove stack for day 2 with a trip to wembley and an overnight in London for a day out

I'd be surprised to see anyone forfeit a stack unless they intend to buy in to day 2 anyway

I think I read no one has done it since they introduced it in previous tournaments

(50% of day 2 make the money with the estimated min cash 540 euros)

[TightEnd]

Sample payout schedules, starting at 1000 runners

http://www.dusktilldawnpoker.com/ispt/ispt-payout.pdf

[AndrewT]

If you are someone who would forfeit a small stack then you're highly unlikely to have a small stack, aren't you?

If it's getting close to the bubble on Day 1 and you've a small stack, a potential forefeiter is going to be in ultra-aggressive mode, punishing those who are trying to scrape in. So they're either going to have a big stack or they're going to get knocked out.

[cambridgealex]

If you are someone who would forfeit a small stack then you're highly unlikely to have a small stack, aren't you?

If it's getting close to the bubble on Day 1 and you've a small stack, a potential forefeiter is going to be in ultra-aggressive mode, punishing those who are trying to scrape in. So they're either going to have a big stack or they're going to get knocked out.

Doesn't seem to quite work like that though, firstly you can get crippled right at the end - or you can just get your shoves through and pick up the blinds a lot. Quite a few ways you can be stuck with a bowl at the end.

I've been in that spot before with the Grand Prix, and I just found it impossible to just throw away chips, it was 8 big blinds, and just couldn't bring myself to just shove 73o over a raise or anything, so made just made day two with a bowl and mincashed like a boss

[AndrewT]

That's why it's not impossible, just highly unlikely. Someone who essentially had a stack that was worthless (as they were ditching it) would (or, rather, should) be just getting it in with any old crap.

[cambridgealex]

That's why it's not impossible, just highly unlikely. Someone who essentially had a stack that was worthless (as they were ditching it) would (or, rather, should) be just getting it in with any old crap.

just can't see what a "worthless" stack is.

Even 5k is still 25 big blinds going back. and worth a few hundred euros in equity.

Do you mean having like 800?

[OverTheBorder]

The travel for this is a nightmare for me as you cannot book return tickets as you do not know if it will be 2-3-4-5 days or if you will be in Stringfellows for a month trying to spend a Million Euros. Last minute tickets are very expensive so it is a pain. I would probably forfeit up to 20k, I think 20k being 100 bigs is my point.  On the second bullet (if it is my last) I will see how cheap I can get down and assess if the "Wembley Factor" is worth shelling out a few 100 to play a few hands.

As a matter of interest how would you price up 10% of a 10k stack for staking purposes.  I would have thought it would be more valuable then 30 euros being 10% of the entry fee but considerably less than 600 euros (1/5th of day 2 direct entry).  This is based on a player who would normally sell at spot.

[pleno1]

Whats day 1 structure? Chips etc?

[TightEnd]

Whats day 1 structure? Chips etc?

online structure

http://www.ispt-poker.co.uk/couk/program/course/

live is 50,000 with 38 min clock starting 100-200, then levels as on the link x10

Stacks carried forward to Wembley, live stacks divide by ten to equalise with online stacks

[AndrewT]

That's why it's not impossible, just highly unlikely. Someone who essentially had a stack that was worthless (as they were ditching it) would (or, rather, should) be just getting it in with any old crap.

just can't see what a "worthless" stack is.

Even 5k is still 25 big blinds going back. and worth a few hundred euros in equity.

Do you mean having like 800?

A worthless stack is any which the player thinks 'I can't be bothered with this'

One player may well be happy with 800, as for them it's all about playing at Wembley. For another player, who is playing FTW they might consider anything below 25k as too big of a disadvantage.

There's no empirical value.

[Sweetman]

I don't think any stack below 1000 is worth forfeiting.

I appreciate the travel and accommodation need to be taken into consideration, but if you did make day 2 with circa 5BB, you just turn up and play, and book a hotel if u make day 3, and drive home if you don't, surely the experience of playing on the pitch at Wembley is worth not forfeiting the bowl stack!

I think the option to forfeit is only there to allow a player who gets all in and "almost covered" and loses in the last hand of the day 1.

[outragous76]

I don't think any stack below 1000 is worth forfeiting.

I appreciate the travel and accommodation need to be taken into consideration, but if you did make day 2 with circa 5BB, you just turn up and play, and book a hotel if u make day 3, and drive home if you don't, surely the experience of playing on the pitch at Wembley is worth not forfeiting the bowl stack!

I think the option to forfeit is only there to allow a player who gets all in and "almost covered" and loses in the last hand of the day 1.

You aren't appreciating that this isn't a normal tourney, and I can assure you that is fairly bad thinking.

This is essentially a $300 tourney with $1m up top and possibly <1500 runners for day 2 (which is technically a day 1 in MTT terms).

Therefore starting with that kind of disadvantage against the field is always going to be a huge mistake when you have the OPTION to try again.

I have put alot of time into this (both sattys and MTT's) and although I didnt come up with a definitive "sweet spot" for forfeting, there are some strong and compelling reasons to do so.