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Kmac84
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« Reply #2865 on: December 18, 2014, 05:09:23 PM » |
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Any thoughts on one of this threads heroes Hector Crouch in the next race at Kempton.
Tissue price was 10/1, best price I seen earlier was 7/2 when I looked at the race but now around 2/1 mark and shorter in places.
Strange move imo.
I was planning on betting Barwah smallish e/w just think the tongue tie might bring about some improvement in a pretty weak race.
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Kmac84
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« Reply #2866 on: December 18, 2014, 05:13:23 PM » |
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And now drifting like a barge thing!
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simonnatur
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« Reply #2867 on: December 18, 2014, 05:15:14 PM » |
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had missed this, seems plenty short to me
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Reluctant to race, came home in own time
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bobby1
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« Reply #2868 on: December 18, 2014, 05:35:08 PM » |
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Will be having 2pt win Trickaway 2.50 Exteter 7/2 B365
well done bud |
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
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nuros
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« Reply #2869 on: December 18, 2014, 06:55:19 PM » |
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Thanks and vwp Simon, Trickaway and showtime blues boom!
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BigAdz
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« Reply #2870 on: December 18, 2014, 06:59:17 PM » |
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Missed the first one but had a tickle on the Showtime. Magic stuff Simon. Keep it up Sir!  |
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Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
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Kmac84
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« Reply #2871 on: December 18, 2014, 07:23:41 PM » |
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Sick. Was on the phone to Sky and missed the last one. Well played buddy.
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icles test
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« Reply #2872 on: December 18, 2014, 07:49:48 PM » |
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Does Derek Thompson watch the same race as the rest of us? Is there a worse commentator in Racing.
Its clear what hes backed in the race, I backed one earlier and he was congratulating the piece of c*** for its run it second when its been held 20lb below its mark. I think he commentates based on what hes bet. Varsovian at 11/2 in the last it kempton seems decent, 1/4 maybe better incase theres an improved/3lb is enough to get it beat. |
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« Last Edit: December 18, 2014, 07:52:01 PM by icles test »
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icles test
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« Reply #2873 on: December 18, 2014, 07:55:29 PM » |
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6.15 Kemp Showtime Blues 0.5pt e/w 11-1 BV Lads WHill pretty dirty e/w shape to race and sire has 21% strike rate on all weather sprints. Trainer has 1 win and 3 places from last 11 a/w runs. worth a tiny speculative punt?
bet more points bro, n1 decent tip earlier aswell |
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Kmac84
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« Reply #2874 on: December 19, 2014, 05:20:21 PM » |
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I was looking at the Wolverhampton card earlier today and thought the 4:50 had the shape of a dirty e/w look about it, conditions obviously not ideal but although we have 11 runners realistically I thought 4 had absolutely no chance of getting close. I thought the fav was going to be a little short. I'd have backed it @ 11/8 but when I got round to looking at the race in any depth it was 4/7. Trading just over Evns on machine. I thought the 2nd fav might have difficulty getting a position early from the 10 box. JO's normally improve for the run and was friendless on the machine for a spell.
I ended up with 2: Souk al Thab and Sir Keltic Blue - hardly original picks in this sort of race, but opted for the latter, as my main e/w bet as I like Ellison as a trainer and I like the jockey also. Negatives are I'm not keen on the draw, I think this trip might be a bit sharp but its drifted a bit from when I backed it. On the otherhand I had a smaller bet on Souk al Thab but my main negative with this one was it might just plod along as it will get a handicap mark after tonight.
I can lay off my win part of the bet on the Machine and the fav is now a backable price what should be my best way of doing this should I lay off the win? Just back the fav win only or let the bets ride. Obvs a bit late for this race now but for future what you guys reckon?
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Kmac84
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« Reply #2875 on: December 19, 2014, 05:24:20 PM » |
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Sure read that race well. That wasn't one of the 4 I thought had no chance but would have been my 5th pick.
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simonnatur
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« Reply #2876 on: December 20, 2014, 11:21:26 AM » |
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Just posting as a public service (hopefully) Calum Madell tweeted he likes Kilcooley in 2.40 Haydock and Pine Creek in the Ladbroke (PC also the pick of Adzy and Linfoot)
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Reluctant to race, came home in own time
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simonnatur
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« Reply #2877 on: December 20, 2014, 12:13:50 PM » |
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12.45 Ascot 1pt e/w Absolute Bygones 16-1 Wizards Bridge and Rascal - both 8-1 a little more reasoning on TFT
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Reluctant to race, came home in own time
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simonnatur
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« Reply #2878 on: December 21, 2014, 11:12:10 AM » |
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Just posting as a public service (hopefully) Calum Madell tweeted he likes Kilcooley in 2.40 Haydock and Pine Creek in the Ladbroke (PC also the pick of Adzy and Linfoot)
Kilcooley won 11/2 Pine Creek 2nd 10/1 - Great call by Adz, advised on TFT @ 16-1 |
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Reluctant to race, came home in own time
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Karabiner
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« Reply #2879 on: December 24, 2014, 12:02:41 PM » |
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I quite like the idea of Wishfull Thinking running a big race in the King George.
It's really not that far away on official ratings, only 7lbs below top-rated Silviniaco Conti, and is in the form of it's life this season since it had a wind operation in the summer. I know it's eleven years old but so was Edredon Bleu who had a similar profile.
I think 25/1 with 1/4 odds 1-2-3 is tempting enough.
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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