DTD Mini Deepstack £100, £30,000 GTD 12-15 Sept

[TightEnd]

Freeroll is now in Lobby - look for Dusk Till Dawn / £100 Deepstack / Dusk 100 Freeroll

Sunday night at 10pm, 5 x Summer deepstack seats for the winners. Share this image on fb to be eligible (Nicola checks...)

[DEVIL]

Not to mention that merging stacks is -£ev.  If players want to take more bullets to run up a stack, it only benefits the rest of the field.

If adding to your stack is a -£ev why do so many people have add ons when available?  I'll be playing cause £50k guarantee for £100 is good value but I'm not so keen on the idea that players can merge stacks. 

[mumblesrock]

The reality is that very few people will have stacks merged..... most of the high rollers will be playing away in the wsop so I dot think grass root players should worry to much.

[theprawnidentity]

Not to mention that merging stacks is -£ev.  If players want to take more bullets to run up a stack, it only benefits the rest of the field.

If adding to your stack is a -£ev why do so many people have add ons when available?  I'll be playing cause £50k guarantee for £100 is good value but I'm not so keen on the idea that players can merge stacks.  

Add on's are completely different altogether.  Buying an add on increases your chances of making the money and will reduce variance vs people who don't take the add on.  Also, adding on usually gets you more chips for the same money as the buy in.

Merging stacks is something completly different all together in this scenario.  When you start playing with a 2nd stack you're putting a buy in back into the prizepool without any expectation of a return on the money whatsoever as even when you do min cash again, you don't get anything for it.  Further, the actual process of merging stacks is -£ev as you only have one shot at winning first place in that tournament.  If you had both stacks in different tournaments your max potential return would be £25k, whereas in this scenario we can only win £12.5k max.

Although you do increase your chances of running deeper in the tournament, the value is much less than if you bought in to seperate tournaments.

Also worth pointing out that merging a stack is effectively costing you £200 of profit as you won't be getting paid another min cash.  The prizepool benefits from having £100 put back into plus another £300 in 'upaid' cashes.  Guys merging stacks are basically adding £400 a time to the prizepool.

[JChapman]

Am I thinking this through the right way ?

To merge a stack you obv already need a stack, so the chances of doing so are 1 in 10.
Saying its a 1000-1 shot is wrong ?

Anyone who successfully merges is essentially putting an extra £400 in the prize pool.
The buyin + 1 min cash rule.

Get merging !

For easy maths...assume there was 100 runners every day and 10 % made it through from Day 1( 10 players ) then that would be a genuine 1 in 10 or a 9-1 chance

If the same number made it through the next day (from 100 runners) and the same  player was lucky enough to be in that 10 then his odds  of merging his stack would be 99-1 

If the same number made it through to the next day and the same player was luck enough to make it  yet again then the odds would be 999-1  etc etc

Variables in the odds will occur when this isnt an exact 10%  (ie 101 to 109 runners )

So in answer to your question 3 merged stacks will be approx 1000 -1  (unless there are any other factors)

These maths only work if all players are of *equal* skill level.  This is not the case at all. 

[NoShoes]

Will there be any £15 5 Seat GTD Sats on Sat and Sunday (this weekend)? Can't see anything in the lobby

Cheers

[Vinodh]

Will there be any £15 5 Seat GTD Sats on Sat and Sunday (this weekend)? Can't see anything in the lobby

Cheers

Hi, Usually the lobby is updated everyday! So, I presume it will be there on Saturday morning!

[NoShoes]

Will there be any £15 5 Seat GTD Sats on Sat and Sunday (this weekend)? Can't see anything in the lobby

Cheers

Hi, Usually the lobby is updated everyday! So, I presume it will be there on Saturday morning!

Yeah thought that, but can see the Mon / Tue Hypers already. No worries. Cheers

[david3103]

Will there be any £15 5 Seat GTD Sats on Sat and Sunday (this weekend)? Can't see anything in the lobby

Cheers

To be fair to Rob and the DTD crew let's not be hoping for a potential overlay on the sats for this when they have a) just done their brains on the ISPT sats and event and b) are guaranteeing £50k on a £100 tournament.

Standard sats programme seems pretty fair to me for these.

[redsimon]

Am I thinking this through the right way ?

To merge a stack you obv already need a stack, so the chances of doing so are 1 in 10.
Saying its a 1000-1 shot is wrong ?

Anyone who successfully merges is essentially putting an extra £400 in the prize pool.
The buyin + 1 min cash rule.

Get merging !

For easy maths...assume there was 100 runners every day and 10 % made it through from Day 1( 10 players ) then that would be a genuine 1 in 10 or a 9-1 chance

If the same number made it through the next day (from 100 runners) and the same  player was lucky enough to be in that 10 then his odds  of merging his stack would be 99-1 

If the same number made it through to the next day and the same player was luck enough to make it  yet again then the odds would be 999-1  etc etc

Variables in the odds will occur when this isnt an exact 10%  (ie 101 to 109 runners )

So in answer to your question 3 merged stacks will be approx 1000 -1  (unless there are any other factors)

These maths only work if all players are of *equal* skill level.  This is not the case at all. 

I don't think anyone thinks all poker players are equal either in ability or deepness of pocket. What edge do you think a better player needs to be +EV to try and get two or three (or more!) stacks through to Day 2?


I think they would have to have an "insane" edge tbh.

[NoShoes]

Will there be any £15 5 Seat GTD Sats on Sat and Sunday (this weekend)? Can't see anything in the lobby

Cheers

To be fair to Rob and the DTD crew let's not be hoping for a potential overlay on the sats for this when they have a) just done their brains on the ISPT sats and event and b) are guaranteeing £50k on a £100 tournament.

Standard sats programme seems pretty fair to me for these.

I'm not asking for anything that not been advertised...but agree 100% with what you are saying

[theprawnidentity]

These maths only work if all players are of *equal* skill level.  This is not the case at all. 

I think they would have to have an "insane" edge tbh.

Exactly this.  For a player to make merging stacks profitable they would have to have an ROI exceeding 400% (I think, though im not 100% sure that my thought process is right, that a 430% ROI would be somewhere round break even).

However you want to look at it, im 100% sure that only the prizepool benefits from merged stacks.

[JChapman]

Am I thinking this through the right way ?

To merge a stack you obv already need a stack, so the chances of doing so are 1 in 10.
Saying its a 1000-1 shot is wrong ?

Anyone who successfully merges is essentially putting an extra £400 in the prize pool.
The buyin + 1 min cash rule.

Get merging !

For easy maths...assume there was 100 runners every day and 10 % made it through from Day 1( 10 players ) then that would be a genuine 1 in 10 or a 9-1 chance

If the same number made it through the next day (from 100 runners) and the same  player was lucky enough to be in that 10 then his odds  of merging his stack would be 99-1 

If the same number made it through to the next day and the same player was luck enough to make it  yet again then the odds would be 999-1  etc etc

Variables in the odds will occur when this isnt an exact 10%  (ie 101 to 109 runners )

So in answer to your question 3 merged stacks will be approx 1000 -1  (unless there are any other factors)

These maths only work if all players are of *equal* skill level.  This is not the case at all. 

I don't think anyone thinks all poker players are equal either in ability or deepness of pocket. What edge do you think a better player needs to be +EV to try and get two or three (or more!) stacks through to Day 2?


I think they would have to have an "insane" edge tbh.

Quantifying edges at a level where each player is not world class is just too difficult.  Barely any player is reasonable in their assessment of themselves and others, and then the perceived skill gap between themselves and others.

I was merely pointing out that the formula provided is slightly inaccurate and there are more variables to take into account.  I would personally be more concerned with the ability for colluding teams to generate monster stacks, repeatedly.

I like the idea of not punishing people for playing more than one Day 1.  I am not sure that merging has any positive benefits over "best score goes through", where the negatives are less.

Can you show your workings out that prove a 400% ROI is needed for merging in two single, independent events that only are linked by a score that is joined at the end? I would reason that if a player has a 30% ROI in these events, then merging is a distinct possibility, as this player will be more profitable than the rest of the players in the tournament.

[theprawnidentity]

I can.  When I've finished work later I'll go into the tank and write a proper explanation.  Unless someone beats me to it!

[theprawnidentity]

I would personally be more concerned with the ability for colluding teams to generate monster stacks, repeatedly.

This would be a completely pointless exercise.  If these teams were colluding to create 'moster stacks' then they would be retarded.  Assuming all players are plus ev (which I would highly doubt given the proposed plan), the 'team' would be better off with 3x 300k stacks going into day 2 than 1x 900k stack as 3x £300 + 3x equity of remaining prizepool would be far better than 1x £300 and 1x equity of remaining prizepool. 

Ran the numbers (in a crude fashion) through ICMIZER to show how much the stacks would be worth at the FT assuming there was £40k left on the table:

ICM For 900k stack

£8825

ICM For 3x 300k stacks

3 x £4520 = £13,560

Gotta be honest, ive been trying to write a reasoned and easy to follow explanation for why I think merging stacks is -£ev but keep getting tangled up in my own argument.  I will have another shot at this tomorrow unless someone steps in to bail me out (where's lil' dave when you need him).