Main event fml spot vs Jake Cody

[MANTIS01]

Yea not folding so guess calling is better. I'm not feeling the presume villain calls theory as isoing Alex hu with all the factors against him seems pretty smart, calling seems more likely to generate multiway farmer action which wont be as good for him.

[cambridgealex]

I think the flop is pretty bad personally, yes you might have the best hand, yes you might hit an ACE/KING but it's a very awkward spot with really messy stacks and its not like Jake is gonna misplay many turns given his range.

I think calling PF is ok personally, you're getting a verrrry veryyyy good price, as has been said many times 3betting PF is the mistake.

Mate why do you think 3betting pre is the mistake? If we have premium and 3betting is likely to generate more action from worse why is that bad for us?

Jake can decide we're fos and 4bet or Jake can fold and we pick up a loose call from a worse player. The mistake imo is fps and not smashing it in pre. People are talking about the bb's but it's the SPR which is relevant. We go to the flop with over 13k in there and only 18k behind, oop vs a better player, who was the pre-flop aggressor with 75k, pretty suicidal coup really. Alex says he doesn't want to flip vs jacks, but given the factors 50% is a much better coup than this, and that's if he gets called at all. Good for the rep vs pig farmers as well. Alex plays the hand good if he has AA imo but equity plummets post wit AK & good villain prob gets away when you hit anyway. This is the problem when you don't believe in reverse implied odds

If we presume Jake is the most likely person to call the 3bet, which seems reasonable, we are effectively isolating one of the best players in the field when we could call and overflush/overstraight any of the people behind. However, I completely agree that 5bing is better than calling, but I definitely believe if we were presented with either calling or folding then calling would have to be correct.

Jake is the least likely to call the 3bet imo. My range is really strong in this particular spot and we're not deep enough for him to peel like 98s for 2.3k more when I have 20k back. The recs in the hand are less likely to care about this and will just flick it in (see my exit hand lol).

I personally think that if Jake is bluffing preflop then it is pretty bad, since my range preflop is so strong (probably JJ and AK) and he can't expect me to fold much (if any) of that range.

I mean everyone expected me to jam AK here (and it's arguably the best play once I've 3bet), so he'll probably think the same, and therefore can expect 0 folds from my 3betting range.

However he may perceive my range to be wider than JJ+ and AK, but other than two light jams he's saw me make 2 years ago, he has no real reason to think this based on our history.

Jake gets people to spew off constantly vs him because of his PS badge, triple crown and they all remember the T4 hand in the WPT. He's probably had it in every 4/5/6 bet pot ever since lol. Yesterday someone 6bet jammed QJ into his Aces in the main event lol.

My conclusion: He had it, but I still butchered it!

[rfgqqabc]

I think the flop is pretty bad personally, yes you might have the best hand, yes you might hit an ACE/KING but it's a very awkward spot with really messy stacks and its not like Jake is gonna misplay many turns given his range.

I think calling PF is ok personally, you're getting a verrrry veryyyy good price, as has been said many times 3betting PF is the mistake.

Mate why do you think 3betting pre is the mistake? If we have premium and 3betting is likely to generate more action from worse why is that bad for us?

Jake can decide we're fos and 4bet or Jake can fold and we pick up a loose call from a worse player. The mistake imo is fps and not smashing it in pre. People are talking about the bb's but it's the SPR which is relevant. We go to the flop with over 13k in there and only 18k behind, oop vs a better player, who was the pre-flop aggressor with 75k, pretty suicidal coup really. Alex says he doesn't want to flip vs jacks, but given the factors 50% is a much better coup than this, and that's if he gets called at all. Good for the rep vs pig farmers as well. Alex plays the hand good if he has AA imo but equity plummets post wit AK & good villain prob gets away when you hit anyway. This is the problem when you don't believe in reverse implied odds

If we presume Jake is the most likely person to call the 3bet, which seems reasonable, we are effectively isolating one of the best players in the field when we could call and overflush/overstraight any of the people behind. However, I completely agree that 5bing is better than calling, but I definitely believe if we were presented with either calling or folding then calling would have to be correct.

Jake is the least likely to call the 3bet imo. My range is really strong in this particular spot and we're not deep enough for him to peel like 98s for 2.3k more when I have 20k back. The recs in the hand are less likely to care about this and will just flick it in (see my exit hand lol).

I personally think that if Jake is bluffing preflop then it is pretty bad, since my range preflop is so strong (probably JJ and AK) and he can't expect me to fold much (if any) of that range.

I mean everyone expected me to jam AK here (and it's arguably the best play once I've 3bet), so he'll probably think the same, and therefore can expect 0 folds from my 3betting range.

However he may perceive my range to be wider than JJ+ and AK, but other than two light jams he's saw me make 2 years ago, he has no real reason to think this based on our history.

Jake gets people to spew off constantly vs him because of his PS badge, triple crown and they all remember the T4 hand in the WPT. He's probably had it in every 4/5/6 bet pot ever since lol. Yesterday someone 6bet jammed QJ into his Aces in the main event lol.

My conclusion: He had it, but I still butchered it!

I wrote call the 3bet but should have wrote continue. This seems like a really solid coffin spot for him to put you in with very little risk. I thought because his range would be strongest but forgetting the field is full of fishcakes ^.^

If your calling AK then do you jam JJ? Or peels pre?

[SuuPRlim]

Mate why do you think 3betting pre is the mistake? If we have premium and 3betting is likely to generate more action from worse why is that bad for us?

Jake can decide we're fos and 4bet or Jake can fold and we pick up a loose call from a worse player. The mistake imo is fps and not smashing it in pre. People are talking about the bb's but it's the SPR which is relevant. We go to the flop with over 13k in there and only 18k behind, oop vs a better player, who was the pre-flop aggressor with 75k, pretty suicidal coup really. Alex says he doesn't want to flip vs jacks, but given the factors 50% is a much better coup than this, and that's if he gets called at all. Good for the rep vs pig farmers as well. Alex plays the hand good if he has AA imo but equity plummets post wit AK & good villain prob gets away when you hit anyway. This is the problem when you don't believe in reverse implied odds

I think it was a mistake personally because I don't think we can get out stack in in good shape pre-flop (I think 3b/5b jamming is pretty bad personally) I always think 3b/folding is a HUGE shame when we have a premium, suited hand multi-way, there will be lots of worse A* hands, and K* hands in the field, and maybe even some worse hearts. Lets say jake for example has AJ, and we flop A high its going to be very hard for him not to lose 2 bets to us post-flop. If one of the weaker players has KJ and it comes Kxx then we'll v likely get three streets.

Obviously a lot of the time it comes J74 or something and we'll c/ fold but this is the main its a ridic long tournament, AKs vs a strong players UTG open and few peels 80bb deep isn't actually as premium a spot as it sounds. When the stacks are deeper things get a little more complex than just making pots bigger with premium hands. The immediate value of our hand becomes less to consider and the future playability of our hand down the flop/turn/river (as it's likely we'll have to play all those streets with chips behind) should become a main consideration, if you think that your hand might struggle down the streets then keeping the pot small and under-repping your hand is usually the safest way to play it, and this is the type of tourney where playing it safe is usually ftw.

If we're 3betting we should be doing so because we're very confident we could 5bet ALLIN over a 4bet, because we're not Jake has been able to very cheaply put us in a real tizzle here, I mean he might have just had KK but even if that was the case here we've given him an opportunity to put us in a very bad spot.

[SuuPRlim]

Alex if you're suggesting your 3b range is JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AKs then i'm fairly sure 3betting at all is pretty bad, and I'd be very surprised if that how anyone perceives it.

Surely if this is your range, and Jake shouldn't ever be bluffing then you need to fold JJ and QQ to the 4bet no?

[outragous76]

So peelers and going broke on any A or K high board I assume?

[cambridgealex]

Alex if you're suggesting your 3b range is JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AKs then i'm fairly sure 3betting at all is pretty bad, and I'd be very surprised if that how anyone perceives it.

Surely if this is your range, and Jake shouldn't ever be bluffing then you need to fold JJ and QQ to the 4bet no?

It's fine to have a faceup strong range to a good player when there's two others in the pot that'll peel 52s. You're forgetting about these two, one of them was literally the worst. Not 3betting JJ+ and AK just because jake will probably realise we have a good hand is terrible imo.

Why would Jake expect me to be light here? And pretty clearly I wouldn't be 3betting 99 or AJ or anything here...

[SuuPRlim]

Alex if you're suggesting your 3b range is JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AKs then i'm fairly sure 3betting at all is pretty bad, and I'd be very surprised if that how anyone perceives it.

Surely if this is your range, and Jake shouldn't ever be bluffing then you need to fold JJ and QQ to the 4bet no?

It's fine to have a faceup strong range to a good player when there's two others in the pot that'll peel 52s. You're forgetting about these two, one of them was literally the worst. Not 3betting JJ+ and AK just because jake will probably realise we have a good hand is terrible imo.

Why would Jake expect me to be light here? And pretty clearly I wouldn't be 3betting 99 or AJ or anything here...

Not saying he thinks you're light I'm just saying if you ask him, or any other generic good player in his spot I would lay you 50-1 they wont say your range is entirely JJ+/AKs.

Those guys in the pot are all well and good, but Jake has the strongest range of all of them, and that has to be fulll consideration, if Jake folds and one of them calls with A8 then obviously this is fantastic but so is Jake calling and open mucking the flop.

Just saying that if your range, and perceived range is JJ+/AKs and Jake cant ever be bluffing then AKs is a very trivial fold to his 4bet?

[George2Loose]

Why is his 4 bet bad when he's put u in a coffin with a hand this strong? Just admit u got pwned by the guy

[SuuPRlim]

Not 3betting JJ+ and AK just because jake will probably realise we have a good hand is terrible imo.

This isnt what im saying at all... I have a good hand, lets raise is kinda basic thinking, how does the hand play vs Jake's range, vs other players ranges in the pot and how much visibility will you have down the streets?

Obviously vs an open, and two calls you are crushing everybody, once you 3bet and get called by Jake you're still doing good, but not quite AS good and you might have playability issues on later streets, you might force A7 and K8 out from the other players and Jake might 4bet in which case now your hand is doing kinda badly.

Nto saying their is no merit to 3betting, there clearly is.

[cambridgealex]

Not 3betting JJ+ and AK just because jake will probably realise we have a good hand is terrible imo.

This isnt what im saying at all... I have a good hand, lets raise is kinda basic thinking, how does the hand play vs Jake's range, vs other players ranges in the pot and how much visibility will you have down the streets?

What do we always say to John Black, basic thinking ftw! I have a good hand, let's raise.

[cambridgealex]

Why is his 4 bet bad when he's put u in a coffin with a hand this strong? Just admit u got pwned by the guy

I've already admitted that

[MANTIS01]

When we call flop we already have less than a psb so playing thru the streets is not on the menu imo. Villain can put us in several tough spots at a very cheap price and when he picks up some equity or has enough info to read us for AK/AQ he can just flick us all-in ott. That's just good poker and he doesn't need the nuts to do it. Prefer to jam pre and count to 2 than deal with this mind fuck.

[SuuPRlim]

When we call flop we already have less than a psb so playing thru the streets is not on the menu imo. Villain can put us in several tough spots at a very cheap price and when he picks up some equity or has enough info to read us for AK/AQ he can just flick us all-in ott. That's just good poker and he doesn't need the nuts to do it. Prefer to jam pre and count to 2 than deal with this mind fuck.

This is exactly why 3betting pre-flop might not be the best play, obviously if you're happy 5betting all-in here then its all gravy. I promise you though 3b/5b Jam is not very good here, maybe 5b jamming is better than calling the 4bet (despite me previously saying otherwise) for these reasons ^

[dwayne110]

I can't see how 3 bet/5 bet jamming can ever be particularly bad, although I do prefer flatting original raise to keep it lower variance/small ball play & for deception when we hit. We have A-K and therefore blockers to Aces/Kings so it's highly unlikely we'll be worse than a flip if called. It looks very strong too so, there must be decent fold equity for non-premium Jake pairs (possibly folding 9's/maybe 10's downwards?). Ultimately it's a tournament and you have to take risks at some stage to create a stack where you can put pressure on/take hits with marginal calls, a suited A-K with a lot of chips in the middle and not much wiggle room to play down the streets seems a good shove spot to me.