Bloody Jacks

[cambridgealex]

6max 100euro comp, this is day 2, in the money.

Winamax Poker - Tournament "W SERIES Event 28 - Jour 2" buyIn: Qualified only level: 15 - HandId: #241224196774952994-89-1379273048 - Holdem no limit (500/2000/4000) - 2013/09/15 19:24:08 UTC
Table: 'W SERIES Event 28 - Jour 2(56164385)#0033' 6-max (real money) Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: marco7526 (112507)
Seat 2: Sr Croissant (209192)
Seat 3: MacBouus (285342)
Seat 4: IceStream (600421)
Seat 5: beb123 (352479)
Seat 6: mimi5970 (312710)
*** ANTE/BLINDS ***
Sr Croissant posts ante 500
MacBouus posts ante 500
marco7526 posts ante 500
IceStream posts ante 500
beb123 posts ante 500
mimi5970 posts ante 500
Sr Croissant posts small blind 2000
MacBouus posts big blind 4000
Dealt to Sr Croissant [ ]
*** PRE-FLOP ***
IceStream raises 4000 to 8000
beb123 calls 8000
mimi5970 raises 16000 to 24000
marco7526 folds
Sr Croissant ?

Ice Stream is a reg, 29/23/11 over 360 hands, table chip leader.
Beb123 is a massive whale, 59/40/17, not folding preflop once he's put chips in.
Mimi is unknown 35/18/16 over the 80 hands he's been here.

I've been playing 24/18/10 at this table (127 hands). I'm in small blind with 52bbs.

Suspect Mimi to be aware that Beb123 isn't folding so is likely to be massively value heavy, but possibly depolarised, so hands like 99, AT, KQ could be in his range, as well as all the premiums. Can't infer much from his sizing, seems good/ standard in position.

Will look hella strong from me to cold 4, so can't imagine I'm in good shape if I get 5bet by Ice Stream or Mimi.

What should we do?

[TL900]

Im going broke, waiting for someone to convince me something else is better though.

[Tal]

Two jacks. A jack AND ANOTHER JACK!

What worries you about this? That it might not look like a re-squeeze so you miss value from TT? That the 3bet isn't a squeeze very often and you will too frequently be behind? That it might go multiway?

Am interested, as this looks like a standard spot to me for a 4bet.

«Quel idiot!», they cry, as he deigns to enter another conversation out of his depth...

[theprawnidentity]

48884

[Tal]

How often would you normally put 50bb in with JJ? Is that an easy question to answer?

You are likely to get respect for a cold 4 bet but that will only be for what 55k? Only a quarter of your stack in the middle, so you can fold if you decide there's a good reason to (assume this will be original raiser more than the squeezer?)

I'm very inexperienced online, so bear with me

[cambridgealex]

My worry Tal is what happens when I 4bet. 95% of the time it'll be one of two things.

Everyone folds - OK we've won the pot, not a bad outcome

Somebody 5bets/sets us in- We have 52 big blinds, lots of chips, and we will be getting it against a very strong range. I'd be happier doing this if the whale wasn't in the middle - since this makes the initial 3bet very likely to be a good hand, rather than a squeeze play with a weak hand. If the initial raiser 5bets, then we're up against an even stronger range, since he has to worry about both of us.

Id estimate the squeezer not getting in TT here, and probably not AQ, so we're vs JJ+ and AK, which isn't great for us.

I don't believe we'd ever get our 4bet just called by either player, so esentially we're never seeing a flop, it's going in pre or it isn't.

So Tal, you're saying we should 4b and then fold to a 5bet? OK, so would you do this with QJ? Why not if you're doing it with JJ? Since we're never seeing a flop (ie we're either getting 5bet or folds). QJ would actually be a better hand to 4b fold since we block QQ, JJ and AQ

Assuming we play a flop 0% of the time, I believe if we're not 4b/folding QJ, then we shouldn't be 4b folding JJ.

And I don't think it's a good spot to 4b bluff, since the 3bettors range is less bluff heavy, and the original raiser has opened utg.

[theprawnidentity]

In this particular spot, both guys in the hand are insanely aggro and 24/18/10 isn't messing about either.  So theres a good chance that we can get eye'd with by worse.  Having just taken note of the stack sizes properly however, there's a chance I make it smaller, around 44k to give the illusion of fold equity.  Given how aggressive the table seems to be, I certainly think OR can think were messing about and put it in our eye with worse.

Against a guy playing redic tight, I would never be getting in JJ pre for 50bb+.

[cambridgealex]

Disagree about the guys being insanely aggro. Mimi's (3bettor) stats are actually more loose fishy than aggro (36/18). This is 6max remember, 18% pfr isn't aggro at all. Yeh his 3bet is high, but it's a tiny sample really.

Can't see either eye balling TT, esp not the OR.

[Tal]

Ok. Maybe I should think about this another way. Holmes says remove all logical possibilities and whatever remains, however illogical, must be the truth.

The alternatives are:

- fold what is likely for now the best hand (can't bring myself to do that on these facts)
- overcall with an initial raiser behind (even if you try something funky because of stack sizes like jamming if OR 4bets and the 3bettor folds but that looks like you're getting it in behind a lot of the time, I can't see this being profitable)
- jam 50bb (only getting called by a better hand and possibly not picking up the pot free as often as you need)

Therefore I raise.

All we need to know is whether OR and 3bettor are keen, so we needn't risk too many chips finding out. As you say, hurdle one is OR. If they fold, we don't mind a call from one of the other two. More likely, OR repops and we think we are behind a good chunk of the time, so the frequent fold is easy.

I think I fold more than I should admit, here. To a 5bet shove, that is.

Thanks for your answer. I think about these hands in a completely amateurish different way.

[theprawnidentity]

Yeh failed to make the connection between stats and 6 max.  Still don't see a way I'm finding the fold button here.  I'm always amazed by what people will show up with in some spots.

I'm not sure about the 3 ballers range been less bluff heavy, stats (granted small sample), look they certainly know how to 3b and this looks like a great squeeze spot to me.

[Pinchop73]

Flattings.

Let there be spew

[pleno1]

I fold these spots. Don't want to,wager it all the pot is already inflated to do a larger 3bet size thus probably won't be called v wide pre flop and not a hand I want to bluff with.

Meh fold

[Pinchop73]

The reason I flat, is to give them the opportunity to make me fold post flop. Let them barrel.

This is assuming that the most likely scenario happens, ie that OR utg folds, and the Whale comes along. The situation rarely deviates from this unless ice stream has woken up with a top 2% hand.

If the hand unravels as expected then we check virtually every flop, giving us a multitude of options with the strongest perceived range and a decent spr.

[pleno1]

We don't really want to be barreled though

[Pinchop73]

Vs a weak range and a possibly strong yet probably weak range, I want to be barrelled into with the 4th best starting hand in nlhe.

Imo on these French sites there's way more value in bluff catching vs non regs than there is in value towning them. Even more so with 6m.