FTOPS main lolriver

[TL900]

Semi deep in FTOPS main pretty annoying/dirty spot

Villian is Dermot Blain ive been at the table 3 hands and niether of us have put a chip in a pot he will see me as random punter.

Blinds 2500/5k/500

Dermot opens the button to 10k off of 190k

I call in the big blind off 80k with  

Yes obviously I can jam pre but I think this can be a more effective way to play the hand cuz we can x/r gii on a wide range of flops etc.

Flop   (Pot 27k)

Check/check

Turn  

We bet 16475 kinda big but i think its a good spot to bet big as its really tough for me to have a hand etc and I dont expect him to fold the turn ever. Also allows us to jam the river.

He calls.

River   (Pot 60k)

We have 53k on the river, fml?

[pleno1]

6665- fold?

[lucky_scrote]

Min bet fold? Not sure. You don't have a single Ace in your range as it's so default to 3bet jam here and if you decide to not jam A2o then you're not peeling it.

Think bet calling is most optimum line, deffo bet small enough to make it look like you can be folding to a jam as he doesn't know you and means he can call with a J. He will just check a J back otherwise.

[action man]

part of me wants to jam this as you have literally no Ax in your range and hope Jx QQ/KK which is feasible, hero calls you.

[lucky_scrote]

part of me wants to jam this as you have literally no Ax in your range and hope Jx QQ/KK which is feasible, hero calls you.

Yeah I nearly posted this, but thought about it and think that a random (TL is a random in this hand fwiw) doesn't usually just bluff all their chips off on this type of board, just what I think with experience. You will most definitely see a random/fish bluff the river here though, just think that they don't usually commit all their chips in this spot.

Still, you think about all the hands that opp checks back flop and calls turn they are VERY heavily weighted to hands with a jack in them. Possibly some with an ace in them too unfortunately. You'd expect him to bet out all hands with no showdown value because tom's perceived range has no aces in it and probably not many high cards in it either.


Don't think I mind betting or jamming tbh, never checking though obv, think that's terrible.

[action man]

kinda more worried about Quads than a single Ax here. With your range being highly weighted towards broadways its likely any Ax would bet the flop here pretty small

[lucky_scrote]

kinda more worried about Quads

nitnitnitnitnitnit

[verndog158]

would he not bet an ace on the flop if he had one?

[SuuPRlim]

iv literally never said this in a NL PHA thread before but... fold pre? I'd always fold this over doing anything else, calling off 16 bb seems a bit spew hoping to flop a pair or a FD, where I think he'll play pretty perfectly against you. E.G if you flop 874 and c/r AI he will fold AK/AQ/KQ and so on, and call AI with TT or w/e, Maybe if it comes 28Jccx he will bet/fold 44 or A2 or something but I don't think we're gonna put him in many tough PF spots here... Going all-in for a decent amount of equity with 7high seems spewy as well?

I don't like the big bet on the turn either with no image, bog bet turn/shove river yes bluffy but is he ever gonna give "random punter#1" credit for just pouncing on his "capped flop range" and putting his whole stack in, or is he just gonna think, "meh prolly has AJo or something and was too scared to go all-in preflop" knowing Dermot, he's not calling KK to a river jam on a bricked river vs a random, nor do I think he should.

I'd bet small make it look like either a silly bluff, or a timid JT or something, and i'd bet smallish on the river as well (if its blank obv) having said that we've bet big OTT and gotten a silly river card, I have no idea. c/c and hope he value cuts himself with QQ/KK/KJ? Jamming over-reps your hand a bit which i never really like doing and betting small/calling seems very similar to betting small and folding. Yes you have very few Ax but with the image of a Random Punter Nit I think it's very feasible you've flicked the 5k in with an ACE because you didn't want to be AI pre-flop, I'm sure that happens all the time in tourneys?

[DMorgan]

vs competent villain I'd much prefer to just jam this pre, I think given that he thinks that you're a random punter he's going to make a way bigger mistake by calling you too light than he's likely to make postflop in position.

I like your turn sizing over something smaller, I think against an unknown both sizes get equal credit for bluffs, he's calling turn always so just go bigger. I think with your image you can safely bet/fold river, I don't expect him to take off with KK/QQ/Jx vs a small river sizing, he's just gunna call and jam his Ax so I'm going with pads' 6665/fold line I think

Jam pre >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> peel vs this villain for me though

[SuuPRlim]

Jam pre-flop? Seriously? Am I way behind the times but this seems kinda bad...

[mondatoo]

Jam pre-flop? Seriously? Am I way behind the times but this seems kinda bad...

Most people's ranges will be wide enough, and not calling joke wide, that we can profitably jam here.

Maths/Geeks rule the world.

[SuuPRlim]

Jam pre-flop? Seriously? Am I way behind the times but this seems kinda bad...

Most people's ranges will be wide enough, and not calling joke wide, that we can profitably jam here.

Maths/Geeks rule the world.

surely there are miles better hands? Anything with a big card or a blocker would be miles better?

[lucky_scrote]

Jam pre-flop? Seriously? Am I way behind the times but this seems kinda bad...

It can be very profitable. We've only played 3 hands though so I don't think I'm going to do this myself. If someone opens 75% of buttons and calls the jam with say  25% of his range then you are going to show a great profit. A good tool for this is found here: http://www.fpppro.com/fold-equity-calculator.php

I understand nobody really opens 80% of buttons but it's just an example, also 25% would also be a wide calling range, but it's a rough adjustment for someone opening so many buttons. Anyway, using the figures above it looks like this:

Estimated equity when called 35.7% (Used pokerstove for this)
Opponent would need to fold 55% of the time to show a profit.

If the values above were true, you'd be making quite a large profit by jamming as opponent is folding to your jam 66% of the time. Of course this is all in a vacuum and it's pretty hard to determine buttons true btn opening frequency and calling adjustments if he is aware that you are 3bet jamming a lot here. In reality he should stop opening on you if you're going to stick 75s in his eye.

I'm a geek.

[lucky_scrote]

Haha monda, we both made a geek reference. Go us.