Super Tuesday 40 left turn spot vs Faroe Islands

[stato_1]

PokerStars Hand #111688884152: Tournament #858629493, $1000+$50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIII (1000/2000) - 2014/02/12 4:24:57 WET [2014/02/11 23:24:57 ET]
Table '858629493 23' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: Masterfo (107582 in chips)
Seat 3: Raistj (166622 in chips)
Seat 4: KuuL (36345 in chips)
Seat 5: BrynKenney (73147 in chips)
Seat 6: harddecision (148009 in chips)
Seat 7: milldollbaby (50629 in chips)
Seat 8: stato_1 (69979 in chips)
Seat 9: Moorman1 (151827 in chips)
Masterfo: posts the ante 250
Raistj: posts the ante 250
KuuL: posts the ante 250
BrynKenney: posts the ante 250
harddecision: posts the ante 250
milldollbaby: posts the ante 250
stato_1: posts the ante 250
Moorman1: posts the ante 250
Moorman1: posts small blind 1000
Masterfo: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to stato_1 [ ]
Raistj: folds
KuuL: folds
BrynKenney: folds
harddecision: folds
milldollbaby: folds
stato_1: raises 2000 to 4000
Moorman1: folds
Masterfo: calls 2000
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Masterfo: checks
stato_1: bets 4650
Masterfo: calls 4650
*** TURN *** [ ] []
Masterfo: checks
stato_1: bets 11600
Masterfo: raises 28175 to 39777


Not long moved to the table but villain seems to be loving life so far. Limp called utg and OOP vs Bryn Kenney from about 25 bigs not that much before this, then didnt some other generally non-recommended stuff, just raised flop on A73 rainbow, got called by J7 and gave up.

Whats the plan?

[pleno1]

Yuk

I feel like we just have to go with it. As described I think opponent is just able to have enough 2 pairs, sets and 86s that we have to commit and go with it. It's pretty disgusting spot though and he obviously has a bunch of club combos but just feels like we have to go with it is bet fold all 2 pairs and sets as wed be blocking the hands he could go with. Just think our hand is just there in terms of strength that we have to go with it.

What's the pot size ott btw? Vs this opponent I'd maybe go a little bit bigger ott as he will have hands he never ever folds (pairs and club and pairs and 8 for oesd) and we will get our value from this turn most of the time as he can hero fold river or board runs out such we can't value bet so I want a big juicy street ott.

[scotty77]

Go with it x20

[lucky_scrote]

If he min raised id be saying FYL. His line looks fairly strong but I dunno if you can exclude  a lot of other value hands that you beat. His peeling range is really wide which helps of course.

[theprawnidentity]

Think I agree with everyone else here, if he happens to have cc then GL to him.

[gs08bjohnson]

gg good run.

Just jamming, never peeling on this board texture with pot to stack so shallow

[AlexMartin]

is turn bet standard in these games?

[youthnkzR]

All in. I kinda feel like he's got 8x with sizing. I know this seems super specific and a little silly but would be super surprised if he has us beat ATM due to sizing. Really interested to see results!

[lucky_scrote]

is turn bet standard in these games?

It's a tournament, you don't need to balance against a fish with a good hand here like you would vs a cash reg.

[lucky_scrote]

All in. I kinda feel like he's got 8x with sizing. I know this seems super specific and a little silly but would be super surprised if he has us beat ATM due to sizing. Really interested to see results!

An ambitious flop peel!

[theprawnidentity]

All in. I kinda feel like he's got 8x with sizing. I know this seems super specific and a little silly but would be super surprised if he has us beat ATM due to sizing. Really interested to see results!

An ambitious flop peel!

mtts tho

[AlexMartin]

is turn bet standard in these games?

It's a tournament, you don't need to balance against a fish with a good hand here like you would vs a cash reg.

its not balance, its range

[dakky]

his sizing looks like he's more scared of another club coming; whether that means he has a small flush already or 2pair etc I couldn't tell you (but I'm allin)

[AlexMartin]

his sizing looks like he's more scared of another club coming; whether that means he has a small flush already or 2pair etc I couldn't tell you (but I'm allin)

when you assess his range like that, why would you do this?

[youthnkzR]

All in. I kinda feel like he's got 8x with sizing. I know this seems super specific and a little silly but would be super surprised if he has us beat ATM due to sizing. Really interested to see results!

An ambitious flop peel!

Don't think its that ambitious. From OP guy seems pretty bad, A high is good a lot of the time, has all the nut backdoors and there's not a lot of the deck that we fire again as a bluff (other than broadways realistically). Don't expect him to c/c good draws too often (would expect a different line a decent % - and most bad draws expect him to fold pre), therefore I think he's weighted towards showdown over draws - which we cant expect him to fold much other than the very bottom of his 'showdown hands' range to just flop / turn bets (even if turn is e.g. Kx - which is a card which rarely to never improves him to hands other than 2 pairs - he doesn't just make one pair on a Kx turn), also this isn't really a board we want to be firing three on that often unless it runs out really really good for us to barrel. Another thing is our flop size. Think it would be best to be very unbalanced vs this guy on this flop and bomb value hands in order to get the max as it's very unlikely he folds any piece of this board to 1 bet. Bluffs should be smaller in order to allow us to fire smaller turn barrels (if we want) on good cards in order to get value from the very bottom of his range which we fold out for 2 post flop bets (can also get a cheaper river card when he most likely checks every turn to us) and fire a smaller third barrel on nut runouts (again to get value from bad showdown hands which cant call river) - otherwise we can 'bomb' a good runout (in relation to pot size) for a lower % of our stack than if we bluffed bigger on the flop - giving him a less attractive price and making him fold a stronger range on the river - its all how we (stato) views villain.

^ Seems a lot of bollocks but what im trying to get at is, because of our flop size he gets to turn with a weaker range (including floats with backdoors...etc), so with that and factoring in that he check / called he has it a lot less of the time than he would have if we bet bigger on the flop. Also kind of expect him to 'attack' our sizing with a draw a decent % (whether it be check raise / bet / bet OR check raise / 4b jam vs our flop 3b - sizing dependant). Feel like he can have turned 2 pair a lot / can have T8 (with    - which he would check / call a lot more than a flush draw due to two clubs) and is trying to protect but commit himself but think that's less likely.