1/9 pot back, bluff allin?!

[cambridgealex]

First PHA for a long time, been waiting for a fun one like this....

5/10 live cash. Villain is in his 50s, smartly dressed, Chinese. Played snug so far but not been here long.

utg opens 30, villain peels mp, I peel btn , the blinds also call.

checks to villain who bets 60, I raise to 200, folds to villain who raises to 670 with 2k back. I put him on a vstrong range, set or a straight basically. Not a draw, my read was that this player wouldn't play a draw thing way.

giving me a double gutshot. Villain bets 1.5k (full pot) with 500 back. This may be a big mistake, but getting 2:1 pot odds and also getting the extra 500 100% of the time we get there, I'm getting near enough bang on the right price if all my outs are live which I was sure they were. / I fancied a punt.

villain checks

What on earth does he check here? I thought perhaps a straight scared of the full house, or a hand like 74 counterfeited two pair, or even like 76 or JJ, could be quite a few weird hands that don't bet, but are always calling it off.

But given my assigning him a super strong range prior to the river, maybe once he checks I should realise he isn't as nutted as I thought and perhaps might have a missed draw or random bluff and getting an insane price on a bluff, go for it and jam river?

Also are my assumptions about his range prior to the river too presumptuous and is this a butchery ie, I should jam flop / fold turn?

Fun spot!

[cambridgealex]

I know I should fold the turn almost definitely. Would rather replies on the river spot as that's more interesting!

[pleno1]

 I don't think I'd raise flop vs a lead and Gree when he 3bets he's super super nutted which makes bluffing river less appealing as the only thing he could maybe have is a5hh kinda hand which may still call the river anyway.

If we go all in I announce all in and try and not move any chips in the pot so he doesn't realize the price he's getting. Not sure if this is an angle or not.

[cambridgealex]

He's not lead, OR has checked, but your point may still apply.

[Rexas]

If we assume that his flop range is super nutted, and that all our outs are live (as stated in the OP) then surely everything that checks is going to call this river bet? Could be that he read in a book somewhere about checking to get value from missed draws, could be that he's just made quads and has wet himself, whatever. We are effectively readless, and I'm not sure I can find the merits of running a crazy 9th pot bluff or however much it is against a guy who we don't know. We also aren't calling the turn bet to bluff the river, because of how strong with think the guys range is, we're calling because we're effectively getting the odds to do so, so I see no reason to deviate from that plan now. Check back and hope he has imo, and re-evaluate the guy based on the hand he shows down so we can play better vs him next time.

[George2Loose]

I assume u checked back and lost to a bluff that was beating you. Is this thread a little results oriented?

If we assume he jams all his values hands isn't it worth doing what Pleno said and announcing all in. The bluff only has to work a small % of the time to be profitable. Problem is it probably only works a very small % of the time and in game I would probably just give up

[AlexMartin]

counterfeited 2 pair guy in 50's way more likely to just click call I think. think fold flop tbh.

[pleno1]

counterfeited 2 pair guy in 50's way more likely to just click call I think. think fold flop tbh.

Raise calling flop has to suret be way better than raise folding this hand.

[DMorgan]

Generally I'm in the jamming camp in these sort of spots with tiny SPRs on rivers as you tend to get a surprising number of folds but in this particular spot I think you're hand is so so obv a draw and villain as described isn't folding a counterfeited 2pr I think you just gotta give it up

[SuuPRlim]

If he folds 11% of the time then you have a profitable bluff.

He does not fold 11% of the time I will guarantee you that much.

[cambridgealex]

I guess it is a results orientated thread but the results got me thinking about how bad my assumptions were.

I checked. He said you win. Goes to muck, then decides he'll turn his cards over just in case is good.

[DMorgan]

Wow, I guess we just chalk that one up as an anomaly...

[cambridgealex]

Wow, I guess we just chalk that one up as an anomaly...

Felt absolutely sick when I saw his hand. 4.5k pot that could have been mine with a £500 bluff lol.

[Rexas]

I guess it is a results orientated thread but the results got me thinking about how bad my assumptions were.

I checked. He said you win. Goes to muck, then decides he'll turn his cards over just in case is good.

Eurgh...

[AlexMartin]

counterfeited 2 pair guy in 50's way more likely to just click call I think. think fold flop tbh.

Raise calling flop has to suret be way better than raise folding this hand.

his sizing fked it, just don't see us getting paid too often and can be in pretty horrible shape/phantom out hunting