Ignoring ICM

[theprawnidentity]

Was sweating a session last night and this hand came up.  Sorry I don't have the HH available but it's fairly straight forward.

4 handed on final table of a $15 180 man, blinds 2.5k/5k/500ante

CO (hero) 42,000
Bu (random playing really tight) 30,000
Blinds are regs (sb aggro reg, bb tight reg) with roughly 99,000 each

We have  .

I ran this spot through ICMIZER and it suggested pushing KJo.  I then ran the same ICM spot using the new Future Game Simulation (which magically calculates ICM with regards to possible future action), and it said we should shove KTo.  I'm also fairly sure that the button will be willing to blind down to 1bb to make the jump.

My question is do we stick strictly with the ICM calculations here, or do we take this slightly -ICM spot (I think we lose $1.18 by shoving in this situation) and give ourselves a shot at winning?

[MC]

Presuming you adjusted their ranges?

I would say jam, it's not like our edge will be too great with 2 regs with chips and a nit. They might fold tighter than normal given stack layout.

[Sulphur man]

These 180's are really all about that first place. Having the guy who is willing to blind down to 1bb on the CO might actually help here aswel since the payjump between 4th and 3rd is significant to us mere mortals.
With gameflow considerations by this point I'm normally playing way more aggressive then at any point in the 180.

[Sulphur man]

What is the cEV of this shove rather than icm out of intrest? Fully agree with MC here btw.

[lucky_scrote]

I think you'll need to adjust blinds ranges for calling too right here even if they're regs. They will like their position and would rather open on you and make chips that way I'm sure.

Regardless of your hand, this has to be a great jamming spot. Not folding.