Golden Chip Satellite - AA on Bubble

[Rod]

Firstly I am not very good at Satellites so sorry if this is not even a sensible question :-)

OK simple enough question, is it correct to fold AA preflop here given the action before me. The table has been playing tight and not putting it in light very often. I therefore think they are likely to have decent hands like 2 broadway, Pair or Ax. fwiw I won the hand but then thought I probably should have folded, is this correct? I am about 70% to win the hand against their range I think. Is this enough to go for it in this spot?

GAME #5821344634: Texas Hold'em  NL  Tournament 2014-06-30 20:35:09/GMT
Table Dusk Grand Prix Golden Chip, 831248568, 6274624347 (Tournament: Dusk Grand Prix Golden Chip Buy-In: £5.00+£0.50)
Seat 1: Direw0lf (£47,125.00 in chips)
Seat 2: NCFCDTD (£59,000.00 in chips)
Seat 4: dtdangel (£67,275.00 in chips)
Seat 6: maximassive (£84,971.00 in chips)
Seat 7: 53offfavhand (£42,351.00 in chips)
Seat 10: autobetkelv (£119,278.00 in chips) DEALER
Direw0lf: Post Ante £400.00
NCFCDTD: Post Ante £400.00
dtdangel: Post Ante £400.00
maximassive: Post Ante £400.00
53offfavhand: Post Ante £400.00
autobetkelv: Post Ante £400.00
Direw0lf: Post SB £2,000.00
NCFCDTD: Post BB £4,000.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to NCFCDTD [ ]
dtdangel: Raise (NF) Allin £66,875.00
maximassive: Fold
53offfavhand: Allin £41,951.00
autobetkelv: Fold
Direw0lf: Fold
NCFCDTD: Allin £54,600.00
*** FLOP *** [ ]
*** TURN *** []
*** RIVER *** []

[Ironside]

how many seats and how many players left?

[Rod]

how many seats and how many players left?

It is the bubble, there are 5 seats with 6 players left.

[Ironside]

yeah fold is good you will either be in the money or there will be a very short stack and you will still be 4/6

[lucky_scrote]

V easy fold

[theprawnidentity]

Not run this but pretty sure we should call with AA here according to ICM.  Even if the short stack survives (which is much more likely 2 way vs 3), he still has 6bb left so we're hardly home and dry.

I actually think this is really close.  If we call the short stack will busto roughly 87% of the time.  If we fold, the short stack busts around 43% of the time.  I want say something that involves 44% now but its too late, I had a bad session and I'm not thinking straight 

Will think about this tomorrow with a clear head.

[Rod]

Thanks for the responses so far :-)

I am still not sure if it should be a fold or call, my logic may well be flawed somewhere though.

The way I see it is that we have a shove who should have a strong range and a caller who should have a stronger range. I don't expect a hand like 89s or the hands that play best against my hand to be in either range. I honestly think there are pairs and hands containing aces in their range maybe the odd KQs? I have put a few ranges in to odds oracle and always end up with me being around 70% to win and the other two being around 15% each. There are two scenarios which are good for me here which happen about 85% of the time between them

1) I win the hand
2) The OR wins the hand

So that leaves 15% of the time when the shortstack survives. Of that 15% I beat the OR about 80% of the time? So I only bubble about 5% of the time?

So 85% of the time I win a seat there and then

10% of the time I end up with an 8BB stack against a shortstack with a 2BB stack (who is in the BB next hand) so am still in decent shape and probably win a seat at least 70% of the time from this spot?

5% of the time I lose the hand and the seat.

So If I call it's fair to say I win a seat about 92% of the time? It's at least 90% of the time anyway. Am I really more than 90% to win a seat if I fold?

My logic may well be flawed here as I said am I not understanding something simple?

[h]

Thanks for the responses so far :-)

I am still not sure if it should be a fold or call, my logic may well be flawed somewhere though.

The way I see it is that we have a shove who should have a strong range and a caller who should have a stronger range. I don't expect a hand like 89s or the hands that play best against my hand to be in either range. I honestly think there are pairs and hands containing aces in their range maybe the odd KQs? I have put a few ranges in to odds oracle and always end up with me being around 70% to win and the other two being around 15% each. There are two scenarios which are good for me here which happen about 85% of the time between them

1) I win the hand
2) The OR wins the hand

So that leaves 15% of the time when the shortstack survives. Of that 15% I beat the OR about 80% of the time? So I only bubble about 5% of the time?

So 85% of the time I win a seat there and then

10% of the time I end up with an 8BB stack against a shortstack with a 2BB stack (who is in the BB next hand) so am still in decent shape and probably win a seat at least 70% of the time from this spot?

5% of the time I lose the hand and the seat.

So If I call it's fair to say I win a seat about 92% of the time? It's at least 90% of the time anyway. Am I really more than 90% to win a seat if I fold?

My logic may well be flawed here as I said am I not understanding something simple?

With one to go i think its a clear fold  we do not bubble in this hand if we fold 100% of the time                                                                                                       the the only outcome we do not want see is a split pot between the other two

[EvilPie]

A lot depends on how active the other stacks have been. If you think they're going to grind it down to 2 or 3 bigs then call now and get it over with.

The fact that you're on the bubble and there's nobody with less than 10bbs suggests that people generally aren't playing very well so it's highly likely to be over long before you need to put your chips in any kind of jeopardy.

These sats can easily be won by playing tight because so many others play loose and knock each other out. This one looks pretty close so tend towards tight and just fold.

TomTom; Can't really see the point of running it as you'll never get anywhere near the correct ranges. What would you assign to DTDAngel? It should be incredibly narrow but knowing these sats it will include more pairs than you could possibly imagine as well as a surprising amount of Ax hands.

[lucky_scrote]

I ran the numbers on ICMIZER and it says a call. I adjusted the UTG jam to 5.4% as it said 95% was optimum but nobody ever jams wide, especially not these players.

However, because ICMIZER says call, it's providing everyone is playing correctly somewhat. If you consider that everyone plays so badly and you can just fold to victory so often and just win this hand, you can happily fold.