Tough turn to play

[Oxford_HRV]

I think Q>A>K>9>5 for views of nightmare turn cards.

Surely the worst turn card is an Ace, followed by a 9. Because villain almost definitely plays all 16 combos of KQ this way on the flop. That's a LOT of combos, and a large % of his overall range, given that this range is going to be quite narrow. An Ace is worse than a 9 obviously since he also likely has all AJ and AA combos too. This is, of course, assuming that villain is always opening KQo and AJo from this position, which is not certain but I'd guess is likely. Villain is certainly much more likely to open AJo from this position than he is QJo or QJs! So I just don't see that the Q is a worse card than an Ace or a 9. Of course, if you are 100% certain that villain will play all 16 combos of AK like this then fair enough the Q is going to mean you have been outdrawn quite a bit. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. But he is definitely playing his KQ this way, right? And we cannot be as sure about the AK.

That's the whole point really. A Q is not the worst turn card that can come, it is not even the second worst card. So if we don't feel hero can continue on the Q turn, then that means there are a LOT of turns hero cannot continue on. Which means hero's flop check-raise is not really a true value-raise, and might even be bad.

Which is NOT what i think of course. I personally think that hero's flop c/r is fine. But then I am not advocating c/f this turn!

I agree Villain plays all his AA and AJ this way, wouldn't be certain he plays KQ this way all the time. He can check back flop sometimes because he wouldn't want to 3 barrell KQ on JT5r vs a calling range. He deffo plays AK this way all the time and his JQ which I think he should deffo be opening MP.

I like the thought, the flop raise is not effectively a value raise. I think as you say on the turn we can be over bet jamming here counter intuitively where we are still value betting but we are hoping villain to fold. that's the kind of understanding I had to sizing the flop much bigger.

[cambridgealex]

Am in total agreement with the notion that KQ is FAR more likely to be played this way than AK. AK should just fold on flop or check back, with so many dirty outs and just 4 clean ones which could be blocked anyway. AK is just gonna call down eh? Hope hero gives up and Ace high holds? Turn an A/K then be happy calling down? Not in my opinion.

[cambridgealex]

I love the idea that if c/f turn is best here then c/r flop is bad initially. Pretty cool thought and hard to argue with the theory Stu presents to back it up. Good thread. 

[pleno1]

I wouldn't c/r this board with anythingn really.

55 and jt makes sense for value, Tt/jj too I guess. But what are we c/r as a bluff? I feel like this board hits our opponents too hard to c/r hands like k9 and 87 here as the hands we want to fold out probably check back flop a lot.

@alex I feel like mtt guys Cbet way too
Much in general. People like cal/brianm etc Cbet like 92% and others really Cbet way too much as well IMO, I imagine they would Cbet here and then when raised would be reluctant to fol, even if it is good to
Fold. Again I may be biased as I know results.

[Honeybadger]

wouldn't be certain he plays KQ this way all the time. He can check back flop sometimes because he wouldn't want to 3 barrell KQ on JT5r vs a calling range. He deffo plays AK this way all the time and his JQ which I think he should deffo be opening MP.

Don't agree with the majority of this. It is inconsistent apart from anything. KQ is a much better cbet than AK. So if he "deffo plays AK this way all the time" then surely he is going to have all combos of KQ here too. I personally don't think he will (or at least should) have AK here too often, and I think it is a bit much to say he definitely plays AK this way all the time. Second, villain may or may not have the 2 remaining combos of QJs in his preflop range, but I would be very surprised if he was opening QJo from MP. Unless there are specific reasons to do so (e.g. dominating the table as the big stack on the bubble) then QJo would be a very bad open from MP.

I wouldn't c/r this board with anythingn really.

55 and jt makes sense for value, Tt/jj too I guess. But what are we c/r as a bluff? I feel like this board hits our opponents too hard to c/r hands like k9 and 87 here as the hands we want to fold out probably check back flop a lot.

I don't see why you are worried about which hands to use as bluffing combos. We have a ton of potential hands to bluff with to balance our sets and two pairs. AQ would be one such hand, if we so choose - with the nut gutshot and two overs. And saying "I don't want to bluff-raise because villain will hardly ever fold. Therefore I cannot value-raise because I am not bluffing here and that would make me unbalanced" is really woolly thinking and is mixing up exploitative play and GTO play in the same thought-bite. If you really do believe that villain is very rarely bet/folding here then that means you should be even more inclined than usual to raise your strong value hands. Just don't bother bluffing much, or even at all! Easy game lol. And btw if you genuinely believe that villain is always bet/calling all his AK on this flop then you should definitely want to raise your strong value hands!

It seems that there are some illogical/contradictory thoughts processes going on here...

[rfgqqabc]

I can't get too in depth right now and I've not really had time to absorb everything thats been said properly. I check raised small to take the initiative and because I thought my opponent would cbet AK often and call a raise to this size. I agree people cbet too much.

This is the next part of the hand.


PokerStars Hand #122219298240: Tournament #919442822, $5000+$200 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XX (1250/2500) - 2014/09/29 7:42:30 CET [2014/09/29 1:42:30 ET]
Table '919442822 92' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: fr0zZy (79070 in chips)
Seat 2: UndrAAge (97443 in chips)
Seat 3: XD89lol<3 (32415 in chips)
Seat 4: Tulkaz (138099 in chips)
Seat 5: Harleyy30040 (74436 in chips)
Seat 6: Demonic16 (176890 in chips)
Seat 7: dimjik999 (150976 in chips)
Seat 8: vinnkels (138247 in chips)
Seat 9: toetagU (396375 in chips)
fr0zZy: posts the ante 325
UndrAAge: posts the ante 325
XD89lol<3: posts the ante 325
Tulkaz: posts the ante 325
Harleyy30040: posts the ante 325
Demonic16: posts the ante 325
dimjik999: posts the ante 325
vinnkels: posts the ante 325
toetagU: posts the ante 325
Harleyy30040: posts small blind 1250
Demonic16: posts big blind 2500
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Demonic16 [ ]
dimjik999: folds
vinnkels: folds
toetagU: folds
fr0zZy: raises 2875 to 5375
UndrAAge: folds
XD89lol<3: folds
Tulkaz: folds
Harleyy30040: folds
Demonic16: calls 2875
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Demonic16: checks
fr0zZy: bets 5970
Demonic16: raises 8596 to 14566
fr0zZy: calls 8596
*** TURN *** [ ] []
Demonic16: checks
fr0zZy: bets 16540

~40k in and ~59k eff

[WotRTheChances]

i'd probably bet turn in this hand. In the comps i play think it's the nut line, or c/call and c/call a lot of rivers. In a 5k vs someone decent/good c/f might be better than betting or c/calling.
Imo villain pretty rarely has AK bet-calling JTx otf, but i guess maybe people don't like to fold. Feels to me like betting turn we will rarely get raised/jammed on as a bluff, but can certainly get called by worse (KT, KJ, KQ,T9,J9,Q9,AQ,KK,AA potentially). I guess vs someone good you'll find people checking back almost all of those hands if you check turn, so c/f has got to be an option. Not one i usually take vs the frogs

[Honeybadger]

I'm c/r jamming now that you've checked and he's bet. SPR makes this a pretty comfortable play, and board texture almost demands it. Check-calling keeps in his bluffs ofc, but you're out of position on what is now a very wet board. And all his bluffs have pretty good equity. Villain definitely gains EV from there still being money to bet on the river, given the board texture and the fact he is in position.

It has gone past the point now where you worry about things like 'he's only calling with better'. Pot is so bloated in relation to stacks now that we gain so much from simply preventing villain's equity realisation. But also he will call with hands that you beat. He'll feel priced in with stuff that he bet that he perhaps shouldn't have bet.

Pleno's idea that everyone is playing well and will know to check back KQ/KJ type hands here does not fit in with his belief that AK gets bet/called all the time on the flop. Unless he has the most specific of specific reads on the population, which I don't think is possible really.

Obviously I am pretty sure that you are beaten here based on Pleno's comments that he knows what happened. So I imagine villain has AK. But that's just after-timing IMO.

[pleno1]

Lol it's not. He didn't have ak by I'm strongly strongly convinced that the majority of regs b/c ak otf. Hands that I think bet/f the flop are random hands like a9o, a4s, 87s.

[AlexMartin]

I'm c/r jamming now that you've checked and he's bet. SPR makes this a pretty comfortable play, and board texture almost demands it. Check-calling keeps in his bluffs ofc, but you're out of position on what is now a very wet board. And all his bluffs have pretty good equity. Villain definitely gains EV from there still being money to bet on the river, given the board texture and the fact he is in position.

It has gone past the point now where you worry about things like 'he's only calling with better'. Pot is so bloated in relation to stacks now that we gain so much from simply preventing villain's equity realisation. But also he will call with hands that you beat. He'll feel priced in with stuff that he bet that he perhaps shouldn't have bet.

Pleno's idea that everyone is playing well and will know to check back KQ/KJ type hands here does not fit in with his belief that AK gets bet/called all the time on the flop. Unless he has the most specific of specific reads on the population, which I don't think is possible really.

Obviously I am pretty sure that you are beaten here based on Pleno's comments that he knows what happened. So I imagine villain has AK. But that's just after-timing IMO.

really? dont think he is betcalling worse


Also i think c/fing turn is looking better and better v most of the field. Good thread.

[Honeybadger]

Hmmmm. Are you sure villain does not bet/call KQ, or KK or KJ or whatever here? People play poorly from time to time. I mean apparently most players are bet/calling the flop with AK 100% of the time. This seems bad to me. So perhaps they make mistakes on the turn too; betting hands they shouldn't bet. And tbh even if villain bet/folds a hand like KQ on the turn it is fine - pot is bloated and we gain plenty from forcing him to surrender his equity share after he has already put plenty of his stack in the pot.

To me it's just an SPR thing. If eff stacks were deeper then we may do something else. But as it is I just prefer committing.

I guess it's you guys who play these tournament things so you have the final say on how the player pool plays. But it seems to me that there are a lot of very, very specific reads used here to justify something that would likely be very bad indeed if these reads are not 100% accurate.

[pleno1]

the bigger the pot and the smaller the spr the less mistakes players make in general.

when we see results of this hand we gonna look stupid anyway

[action man]

villain is horrid spew monkey station tard fwiw. 

[Honeybadger]

the bigger the pot and the smaller the spr the less mistakes players make in general.

This is true to some extent. But on the other hand, folding the best hand (or a hand with more than enough equity vs an opponent's range to commit) in a bloated pot with a small SPR is a very serious mistake.

[MC]

villain is horrid spew monkey station tard fwiw. 

lol