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Poker Hand Analysis
JJ sb v bb
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Topic: JJ sb v bb (Read 4088 times)
Omm
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JJ sb v bb
«
on:
March 02, 2015, 10:49:03 AM »
I played a hand live yesterday and I want to make sure I do not make the same mistake again.
£100 monthly at G Luton, bubble has just burst so it's £220 min cash with 17 left. Can't remember the exact blinds but I was about 3rd in chips and had about 40bb but the effective bb were 30, so most of my stack. 6k up top.
I just move to the table to balance things out, play 1 hand. They guy to my left returns on his BB.
Folds round to me and I min raise with JJ, he says "seeing as your new to the table and its your first hand with me I shall go All in" the speech play didn't affect me but I Was running through his range in my head. I made the decision he is not doing it with AA or KK, possibly QQ, more likely AK-AQs, unlikely AJs, maybe 1010-88 unlikely 77-55, maybe AKos unlikely AQos. I counted the chips out and thought some more about his range and about my risk reward, I know I was playing well and had been making the right calls over 2days and the right lay downs, if I call and win I'm massive chip leader wth 16 left and playing confidently, if I call and lose Ive still git 10bbs so not out of it but confidence will take a hit. If I fold and preserve my stack I could find a better spot and feel I can outplay at least 14 of the 17 left playing small ball. After a couple of minutes I folded.
I ran some numbers this morning and without the AA-QQ I'm probably about 78%. (Think that's right please feel free to correct me). So should I always be calling there or after reading my thought process is it ever acceptable to fold? Does SB v bb make it a snap call?
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BulldozerD
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Re: JJ sb v bb
«
Reply #1 on:
March 02, 2015, 11:27:16 AM »
i ain't folding
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Rexas
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Re: JJ sb v bb
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Reply #2 on:
March 02, 2015, 12:56:43 PM »
Call exceedingly quickly
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Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
Ironside
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Re: JJ sb v bb
«
Reply #3 on:
March 02, 2015, 01:08:34 PM »
Call the fire brigade to put out the flames at how fast my chips hit the middle
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lend me a beer and I'll lend you my ear
Omm
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Re: JJ sb v bb
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Reply #4 on:
March 02, 2015, 01:17:33 PM »
Haha looks like I'm more of a nit than even I thought I was.
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theprawnidentity
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8 high happens!
Re: JJ sb v bb
«
Reply #5 on:
March 02, 2015, 06:12:21 PM »
Does the button look receptive to a high five?
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MC
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Re: JJ sb v bb
«
Reply #6 on:
March 02, 2015, 06:26:26 PM »
I don't mean to be patronising but if you calculate your equity to be 78% havent you worked this one out for yourself? Gl finding a better spot than 78%.
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"Success is not final, failure is not fatal"
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verndog158
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omgpoker
Re: JJ sb v bb
«
Reply #7 on:
March 02, 2015, 07:16:27 PM »
Quote from: Rexas on March 02, 2015, 12:56:43 PM
Call exceedingly quickly
even faster than that
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Quote from: MassiveFish on September 25, 2014, 05:15:30 PM
ignore verndog he's a fool
'he had a deep run in EPT Barnsley'
Honeybadger
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Re: JJ sb v bb
«
Reply #8 on:
March 02, 2015, 07:23:09 PM »
I'd actually be rather concerned that he has a very strong hand after that speech he made. But I would still call cos I am not going to radically modify my play based on one odd comment made by a player I know nothing about.
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Omm
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Re: JJ sb v bb
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Reply #9 on:
March 02, 2015, 07:32:05 PM »
Quote from: MC on March 02, 2015, 06:26:26 PM
I don't mean to be patronising but if you calculate your equity to be 78% havent you worked this one out for yourself? Gl finding a better spot than 78%.
I know I look a bit of a dick sticking it up as a question so probably expect the odd patronising comment. I think there were dynamics that happened in the tournament that I probably can't explain properly on paper so I will not try, that being said it should have been more obvious to me that it was a snap call and I think I ended up over thinking the situation and giving myself a reason to fold when actually I didn't have any reason. Great thing is that by posting it up here and talking to a few others i Can make sure it doesn't happen again, so I've learnt a few things even if I have looked like a complete knob.
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mulhuzz
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Re: JJ sb v bb
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Reply #10 on:
March 02, 2015, 08:53:10 PM »
Quote from: Honeybadger on March 02, 2015, 07:23:09 PM
I'd actually be rather concerned that he has a very strong hand after that speech he made. But I would still call cos I am not going to radically modify my play based on one odd comment made by a player I know nothing about.
defo gonna modify my play to order jaegerbombs and highfive the dealer first though.
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The Wycher
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Re: JJ sb v bb
«
Reply #11 on:
March 03, 2015, 08:14:16 PM »
Out of interest did you go on to win the game?
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Omm
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Re: JJ sb v bb
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Reply #12 on:
March 04, 2015, 01:03:58 AM »
Quote from: The Wycher on March 03, 2015, 08:14:16 PM
Out of interest did you go on to win the game?
Came 5th.
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SuuPRlim
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Re: JJ sb v bb
«
Reply #13 on:
March 05, 2015, 08:52:08 AM »
This is defo not a high five the dealer spot.
You have to call though but that speech would put the frighteners on me big style, but it's too risky to fold jacks here so I wouldn't dwell on it - he might have AK (very plausible) he might have TT (plausible) and he might have 99 (way less likely)
I'd fold 99, a d have a long think about TT, no need to waste too brainpower thinking too hard on JJ.
All you guys doing backflips need to pay some more attention at the table!!!
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WotRTheChances
MinRaiseFTW, WotRTheChances, Quelles_Sont
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#Team_Eureka
Re: JJ sb v bb
«
Reply #14 on:
March 05, 2015, 02:46:34 PM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on March 05, 2015, 08:52:08 AM
This is defo not a high five the dealer spot.
You have to call though but that speech would put the frighteners on me big style, but it's too risky to fold jacks here so I wouldn't dwell on it - he might have AK (very plausible) he might have TT (plausible) and he might have 99 (way less likely)
I'd fold 99, a d have a long think about TT, no need to waste too brainpower thinking too hard on JJ.
All you guys doing backflips need to pay some more attention at the table!!!
Bloody nit
I'd be snapping off with 88+ AQ+, stuff like 66/77/AJ/KQs would be pretty annoying. I'd base my decision with those on how old the guy is, if he looks like he fancies a punt, or if he looks like he's never played a £100 comp in his life. I guess i could be convinced to fold AJs, AQo, 88 if he looks like the kind of guy who is only jamming AQ+ 88+ in this spot. I'd imagine vs a lot of people you'd see 22-QQ, ATs+, AJo+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs and maybe some A2-A9s too. (Obviously the combos of Kx Qx Jx low pairs etc i'd give the villain would be based largely on stereotypes unless i had some history with him/her)
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Last Edit: March 05, 2015, 02:49:38 PM by WotRTheChances
»
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