And did you have a crystal ball that informed you Jezki was going to drift to 6/1?
Virtually every judge I speak to made it a solid 4/1, 9/2 chance over the weekend (Neil made it a very strong bet on Betting Emporium at 5/1, so he clearly did not envisage a drift)
The drift surprised everyone and you certainly couldn't get 6/1 Jezki at the same time you could get 6/4 or 11/8 Faugheen.
If you knew these moves were going to happen, it would have been far easier and more profitable to split your tank into trading the two horses IMO.
If you look back on TfT, I said that you "can probably back the top 5 and get value" on them all on Monday night. It all got lost in a stupid spat about whether backing Faugheen each way was value, which was followed by such gems as the champion hurdle was a bad each way race and that cheltenham was a bad place to be betting. That is why this thread exists.
I didn't have a crystal ball, but of the 5, I said I thought Jezki was getting "a bit short" at 9/2, and wouldn't have backed it at that price (I had already backed it anyway when Neil first mentioned it FWIW). Saying the drift surprised everone just isn't correct. I'd still say it would have been a bit of value as 9/8 is bigger than 4/6, even if I thought the win price was short. Tighty got it at 5/1 and 6/1 for TfT as I recall. I took some more at 6/1 FWIW
The New One was available on Tuesday morning at 5/1, which I took and pointed it out on the thread. I took 4/1 the night before too, which averages close to 9/2.
I backed Artic Fire at 20/1 e/w and pointed it out on the thread and I also pointed out Hurricane Fly was 11/1 on the thread and took it.
None of this needed a crystal ball, it was just what happened. You can check TfT and my previous posts if you think none of this happened.
Arguing whether you could get exactly the prices quoted is just arguing about whether you could get great value or exceptional value on the race. I did honestly think I had backed Artic Fire at 22/1 and not 20/1 when I started this thread, but 5/1>>7/2 at the end of the day. Likewise if you took Hurricane Fly at 9/1 rather than 11/1, 9/4>>6/4 and so on.
If I'd wanted to aftertime a race, Id pick one where the each way horses won.
And if you look back at my calcs I didn't rate Kitten Rock as no chance to finish in the top 3, but did give it a smaller percentage than Artic Fire.
Finally Aaron, there were a couple of maths steps missing eg I didn't say 40% and 6/4 were equivalent and I didn't say quarter of 11/1 was 11/4, but the calciulations are definitely there.
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