million misclick

[bagel]

first ever post on pha, i am a fish, rec , whatever you want to call me, so apologies if the answer to my question is straightforward. i think it is btw but me and a pal of mine can  not agree.

i took a punt at this weeks sunday million. no idea how to find or copy the hand exactly , so i will do my best to paint the picture as accurately as i can.

blinds 1000/2000 with ante, i have 37k.

utg goes all in for 8k. i am next to act and accidentally snap min raise to roughly 16k with 4 8 offsuit. ( i was using the hand replayer watching previous hand, stupidly i had both on full screen rather than having replayer minimized).

luckily for me it folded round and i won the pot against qk.

my question is if somebody had put me all in , can i ever find a fold?

mate says " you have 4 8 offsuit, suck it up you have 10bb left . i say " fml i am not putting half my stack in then folding".

thought please?

[OverTheBorder]

Anywhere near bubble?  I think you can fold. 8-9bb stack left after blinds, few shoves you are back were you started.

I mean you must be super crushed in this spot as your "line" looks super strong, like AQ best scenario and most likely over pairs to your highest card.

[Oxford_HRV]

Yeah its a slam dunk fold with 10bbs back

[Doobs]

1000+2000+1800=4800
8000+16000       =24000
shove is for 37000

21000 to call, 66000 in the middle.

Assuming you look super strong and the people behind get it in with only the top 5%, then you are 21%.  Hence this is a fold.  

Not sure that is right though as there is a good chance somebody reads it as a misclick, and once they get close to shoving 10% I think you have to call.

I still fold though.  wp

[Oxford_HRV]

 to say if villains would rejam 40k or so stacks with 10% ranges, I deem it all very unlikely.

I estimated 20% equity in this scenario and said slam dunk fold, am I wrong to think if you have 20% equity in 45bb you got 9bbs so with that in mind with 9bb back you should just fold, doing the same until we have 6bb or less back when its 12k to win 57k

[Doobs]

to say if villains would rejam 40k or so stacks with 10% ranges, I deem it all very unlikely.

I estimated 20% equity in this scenario and said slam dunk fold, am I wrong to think if you have 20% equity in 45bb you got 9bbs so with that in mind with 9bb back you should just fold, doing the same until we have 6bb or less back when its 12k to win 57k

Yeah think that's about right, so he has to be shoving about 28k on my maths.  I would probably go with 30k to be honest.  Some people are going to read this move for what it is and some people are just Russian.  Also some people get a big stack and just go nuts with it.

[GreekStein]

yeah i think its a fold

[bagel]

unanimous fold then, thanks very much for all your help everyone. min cashed in the end, really enjoyed it only third time playing the million. prob going to have another crack this weekend!