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Author Topic: plo river betting question  (Read 2386 times)
doubleup
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« on: March 16, 2015, 01:06:24 PM »


If you bet the turn repping the nuts or at least a very good hand and the river doesn't change the nuts, should you always bet?  Even though there may be times that you will never be called by worse?

eg (the most extreme example)

you raise preflop from EP with xxxx and get called by the BB

flop   three diamonds you c bet

turn   you bet

river

Your general range here is very strong and the villains is very draw heavy, if you bet the river with Qxxx, is villain going to call you with Axxx?  So by betting always in this spot you should get your missed draws through.

What do you think?
 

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Oxford_HRV
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« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2015, 01:37:41 PM »

I find it so vital to manipulate fold equity due to stack sizes you are against.
generally when I am deeper ive found more folds when i'll bet fold flop small with a funny number and bet turn relatively large 90%+ usually a round number, then happy days fire the river half pot or so.
something like this
25/50 i open 150
c bet 213
turn bet 700
river 1200

when 20 - 30bb i'll make my semi bluffs a pot sized b/f part of my range on the flop if they flat and it bricks I pot again and put them in a toughy. they will have to fold nearly all draws relative to stack depths and tourney life situations and they can make exploitable overfolds ott. ill have to do 3 barrellsllslslslsls though we dont give up yo.

its really really really dependant on the flop texture villains play and holdings to do this for me, I tend to shy away from cbetting quite thin.
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Oxford_HRV
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« Reply #2 on: March 16, 2015, 01:59:48 PM »

what i say is obvs much more relative to tourney than cash, but yes I would always 3 barrell bluff dry run outs albeit not very often ^_^
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Honeybadger
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« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2015, 02:38:18 PM »

Can't really answer that very general question fully. It it is all situational so giving a generalised answer/cookie-cutter approach would do more harm than good.

In the hand in question you are credibly repping top set of course, so 3 barrelling at least tells a consistent story. That does not mean you should just always bet without thinking though. Others may disagree, but IMO you should be a lot more prepared to bluff the river with a hand like that has cbet the flop and barrelled with turned equity, than with a hand like where you have barrelled a big draw, have whiffed and are now losing to top pair. It is not just that the KQJT hand has more showdown value than the 8754 - this is only a small consideration since neither hand really has that much SD value at all. It is more to do with the fact that when you have the hand it is much less likely that villain has a big draw that missed (since you block both the NFD and the wrap) and much more likely he has a hand like top two pair or middle/bottom set that he is going to call down with.

A lot of players get this back-to-front though. They give up with the 8764 hand because subconsiously they don't feel they really 'deserved' the pot anyway. Whereas with the KQJT hand they bluff the river every time because psychologically they are a lot more attached to the hand and feel they deserve to win the pot after flopping so well. This is an example of psychological weakness/entitlement causing a break down in logical thinking.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2015, 02:59:58 PM by Honeybadger » Logged
Honeybadger
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« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2015, 02:43:09 PM »

but yes I would always 3 barrell bluff dry run outs albeit not very often ^_^

Don't understand this. You'd always barrel dry run outs, but at the same time would not do so very often?
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Oxford_HRV
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« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2015, 03:36:06 PM »

but yes I would always 3 barrell bluff dry run outs albeit not very often ^_^

Don't understand this. You'd always barrel dry run outs, but at the same time would not do so very often?

lol, what I mean is, if i'm turning my weak flopped hand into a bluff, (which is something I do not do very often) and the turn and river does not improve made hands I will bet all streets. hands like  in 6max cash make sense to open EP but in tourneys I would not be opening such hands EP, I also would not tend to bluff big draws as villain will obv have more made hands in their range, i would use hands like  when betting all 3 streets here, I dont think I like turning Qxxx into a bluff on this board unless villain shows an extremely weak passive style of play.
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SuuPRlim
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« Reply #6 on: March 18, 2015, 02:20:14 PM »

you have to remember when you get to the turn that by the turn our opponents range is not much weaker than ours, we get to the turn with 100% of our UTG opening range (lets say 18% of hands for e.g) where he has to go through 2 filters to reach the turn, call an UTG open from the BB, and chk/call AQ3dd.

With this in mind we should be a little cautious about what and why we bet - a hand like 4578dd I think makes an excellent candidate to check back, I think given we block nothing on the flop, no pairs/draws just two small diamonds then I'd say we have very little fold equity on the turn, and whereas we could certainly consider betting all three with this hand I think this would prolly be a mistake. I would check this back, realise my equity and surrender my 8 high if unimproved - we will want to check back a fair few hands with SD value here given how our oppo's range is now quite strong so we're protected against just surrendering the hand when we dont Cbet the turn.

The ideal hands imo to continue barrelling as a bluff here would be any hand involving a QUEEN, blocking AQ and QQ is very important as these are the two most likely hands to get called down by, if you were to somehow have the in your hand too I think that would make for an even more appealing bluff as it further defines his range to a A*** one pair, or bad two pair hand which will really struggle to further heat. Obv this makes KQJTdd the most ideal hand to bet possible, as we have tons of equity irrespective and can even stand a check raise should that somehow happen.
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Oxford_HRV
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« Reply #7 on: March 18, 2015, 02:30:47 PM »

The ideal hands imo to continue barrelling as a bluff here would be any hand involving a QUEEN, blocking AQ and QQ is very important as these are the two most likely hands to get called down by, if you were to somehow have the in your hand too I think that would make for an even more appealing bluff as it further defines his range to a A*** one pair, or bad two pair hand which will really struggle to further heat. Obv this makes KQJTdd the most ideal hand to bet possible, as we have tons of equity irrespective and can even stand a check raise should that somehow happen.


good post, this bit especially for me. you've made me realise when betting Qxxx and the run out is dry villains call down range is very AQ QQ heavy and we want to block this whilst bluffing.

 
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