Larry's challenge thread

[Larry David]

Ok.  I will give you 10x 1/12 bets that YOU think are 1/20, find them and bring them to me, you would snap my arm off correct? now first of all that is your opinion that the price is a 1/20, punter (A) May think the true price is 1/16,  punter (B) may think 1/10. that is how  we have our bets matched on the exchange or with a bookie they are willing to lay us as they take a different view/opinion, a matter of opinion at times.

£120x 10 bets at 1/12

Arbboy liability 1.2k
Larry liability £100

You are having to stake 1.2k to win £100 max,   arbboy wins 11/12 bets, returns £1170 -30   Larry returns +30.   Now I understand if you are getting 1/8 on what is probably 1/100 but you used an example like this earlier about people being scared to back 1/12 when it is 1/20, may have been 1/8.

you are risking 1.2k(example) at times to win £100 a lot of the times based on you thinking you are almost always getting the correct price just because a bookie or trader is laying you it, do you not accept other traders may have built in strategies where they are not risking a lot of liability as that has worked over a long period for them and they are happy laying odds to punters like yourself knowing the true price is quite debatable but they can allow for plenty of losing bets with a lot less risk than you are playing with, arbboy if you are making millions then hats off but there are plenty of way to skin a cat and some people prefer the low risk strategy, surely the only way you can measure profit is against the amount risked.

I will leave you to find some 1/20 shot, but I may think they are 1/50, you can't always be correct now behave yourself and don't go blowing a gasket over this, we are all punters in our own way, easy on the keyboard also, have you down as a bit of a keyboard warrior.  

I am not trolling as you put it, I want to learn from you as you seem to have this game cracked.  Will you be in vegas this summer?? would quite enjoy a chat about the world of gambling.  Go easy.

[tikay]

Ok.  I will give you 10x 1/12 bets that YOU think are 1/20, find them and bring them to me, you would snap my arm off correct? now first of all that is your opinion that the price is a 1/20, punter (A) May think the true price is 1/16,  punter (B) may think 1/10. that is how  we have our bets matched on the exchange or with a bookie they are willing to lay us as they take a different view/opinion, a matter of opinion at times.

£120x 10 bets at 1/12

Arbboy liability 1.2k
Larry liability £100

You are having to stake 1.2k to win £100 max,   arbboy wins 11/12 bets, returns £1170 -30   Larry returns +30.   Now I understand if you are getting 1/8 on what is probably 1/100 but you used an example like this earlier about people being scared to back 1/12 when it is 1/20, may have been 1/8.

you are risking 1.2k(example) at times to win £100 a lot of the times based on you thinking you are almost always getting the correct price just because a bookie or trader is laying you it, do you not accept other traders may have built in strategies where they are not risking a lot of liability as that has worked over a long period for them and they are happy laying odds to punters like yourself knowing the true price is quite debatable but they can allow for plenty of losing bets with a lot less risk than you are playing with, arbboy if you are making millions then hats off but there are plenty of way to skin a cat and some people prefer the low risk strategy, surely the only way you can measure profit is against the amount risked.

I will leave you to find some 1/20 shot, but I may think they are 1/50, you can't always be correct now behave yourself and don't go blowing a gasket over this, we are all punters in our own way, easy on the keyboard also, have you down as a bit of a keyboard warrior.  

I am not trolling as you put it, I want to learn from you as you seem to have this game cracked.  Will you be in vegas this summer?? would quite enjoy a chat about the world of gambling.  Go easy.

Larry,

This is quite interesting, but it looks like it will run & run, & to my mind, it's not very relavant to Fred, we don't back that sort of stuff.

Any chance you could start a new Thread? All the Fred regulars will still be able to read it, but it'll save Fred getting clogged up with stuff we don't really do.

Thank you.

[TightEnd]

rules

no flaming

no trolling

no winding up


if it develops, fine

if not, nothing lost

[arbboy]

I don't want to only back exactly 1/12 shots every time which i make 1/20 how many of them happen a year.  I want to back extreme shorties in general which you stated i can't make pay both this week and last week.  1/3 shots were discussed last week and dismissed by yourself as being impossible to back profitably over the long term.  Today it is even shorter odds on which are impossible to back long term profitably.  Obviously the vast majority won't be exactly 1/12.  I struggle to understand why it is totally possible to make backing anything with a 0-75% likelihood of winning profitable but as soon as it becomes 1/3 or shorter it isn't possible.  Where on the 0-100% probability timeline does it state that at 1/3 or shorter it is not possible to make a profit backing outcomes?


 The okc one is 1/12 and is estimated to be between 1/100 and 1/500 true price.  So that wouldn't apply to the rules you set.  I also want to back something at 1/200 which wouldn't apply to the rules you state like virtually all the bets i would find.  There are also a 1/7 shot which i make 1/50 which i have backed today and a 2/9 shot i make 1/20 which i have backed today.  

I am happy to put up every odds on shot i back over the year at any specific minimum price which you are free to set.  Be it 1/5 1/6 1/10 1/20.  Your choice.  A sample size of 12 bets obviously suits you as you have more chance to win as you obviously know.  Sample size of 100+ would be a much better guide of whether what i do is profitable but you know that and that is why you only suggest 12 bets as you only need one 'faller' to be freerolling.  

[Larry David]

That last sentence,surprised you said that.

Well off the mark,more bets the better for me which may surprise you.  Just used the 10 as an example,  I assure you this is For tennis, when I used to trade a lot I would often back the loser of the first set in best of threes, or lay the winner of the first set.
Market would always over favour the first set winner.not trolling. The only problem could be is that you may throw 3 selections as a back but we are on the same page with it.

You are obviously on already so what is the 1/7 that you make 1/50?

[arbboy]

That last sentence,surprised you said that.

Well off the mark,more bets the better for me which may surprise you.  Just used the 10 as an example,  I assure you this is For tennis, when I used to trade a lot I would often back the loser of the first set in best of threes, or lay the winner of the first set.
Market would always over favour the first set winner.not trolling. The only problem could be is that you may throw 3 selections as a back but we are on the same page with it.

You are obviously on already so what is the 1/7 that you make 1/50?

Why does tennis keep getting mentioned?  I have never mentioned tennis and tennis in running at any point.  I am on about backing selections at 1/3 and shorter across any sport/event.  You state it cannot be done profitably.  I state it can.  The more you speak the more it is becoming obvious you are a troll and/or clearly don't understand the maths of gambling.

Well off the mark,more bets the better for me which may surprise you.  Can you explain how this makes sense when you are laying 1/12 shots which should be 1/20?  It is the identical spot as you keep backing 20/1 shots at 12/1 and you think the more bets you have the more money you will win?  You just have to be a troll.  I have been advised by senior guys on blonde to leave it as you are an obvious troll and i shouldn't bite.

The more bets you lay the more ev you lose on each bet win or lose and the further and further you fall behind loss wise as the number of selections increases.  There are a lot of shrewdies on this site so the more you talk the more silly you sound.  This isn't a normal betting site full of jokers.

[Omm]

   your turn Larry.

[Larry David]

I have no idea how that tennis stuff was edited in,however if you look at TFT. Vegaslover's words from last nights discussion 100%

Enjoying your popcorn I see.

[vegaslover]

For tennis, when I used to trade a lot I would often back the loser of the first set in best of threes, or lay the winner of the first set.
Market would always over favour the first set winner.

Pretty sure this part is what I posted last night, when discussing in play trades lst night. Quite why you have posted it here larry I have no idea!!

For what it's worth i'm with arby on this. My largest bet this year has been on a 1/6 shot that he put up a while ago.
Have just looked and nearly all my footie bets this year have been backing odds on shots, in a market where I know what the price should be and getting on the right side.

Good luck with your challenge against arby, you are gonna need it!

[Larry David]

AGAIN. Only if you are getting better than the odds which is your opinion,so you clearly value your opinion on a correct price more than a huge percentage of others. You should be retired with your feet up now,its that easy.

[Larry David]

For tennis, when I used to trade a lot I would often back the loser of the first set in best of threes, or lay the winner of the first set.
Market would always over favour the first set winner.

Pretty sure this part is what I posted last night, when discussing in play trades lst night. Quite why you have posted it here larry I have no idea!!

For what it's worth i'm with arby on this. My largest bet this year has been on a 1/6 shot that he put up a while ago.
Have just looked and nearly all my footie bets this year have been backing odds on shots, in a market where I know what the price should be and getting on the right side.

Good luck with your challenge against arby, you are gonna need it!

I have no idea VEGAS.  Think i had old windows open in safari on phone and it copied in your quote.

[Larry David]

What was the bet Vegas?

[TightEnd]

AGAIN. Only if you are getting better than the odds which is your opinion,so you clearly value your opinion on a correct price more than a huge percentage of others. You should be retired with your feet up now,its that easy.

er, he could be, if he so wished

a little bit of advice (not that i need to fly a flag for him), listen and learn :-)

[bookiebasher]

AGAIN. Only if you are getting better than the odds which is your opinion,so you clearly value your opinion on a correct price more than a huge percentage of others. You should be retired with your feet up now,its that easy.

The margins bookies work to make it hard to make a living even when you KNOW the price is wrong.

The only reason for me to have a serious bet is if I believe a price is wrong , not whether I fancy a tennis player
to beat another , it's all price dependent.

And that's the beauty of betting , everyone has an opinion but it's translating that opinion into odds worth backing and Arboy has quite a good record in that department.

Now putting that into practice is the hard part because the bookies , like TFT have found out , do not like winning/break even
punters.

[Doobs]

AGAIN. Only if you are getting better than the odds which is your opinion,so you clearly value your opinion on a correct price more than a huge percentage of others. You should be retired with your feet up now,its that easy.

Arbboy is clearly very knowledgeable.  I'd be fairly surprised if you could find a regular reader of TfT who doesn't recognise this.

It feels almost like you are just doing the Internet equivalent of talking over him instead of listening.  He provided more than enough evidence why his 1/12 shot should have been way shorter, but there is no evidence you have even noticed.  So instead of thanks for the explanation, we get yah boo why have you not retired?