The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[kukushkin88]

Raab resigned......can’t back her deal.

Somewhere im England there is a big sigh as a man starts putting his tinned peaches back on the shelf...


Surely it is his deal??

It seems the role of Brexit Secretary is ceremonial only, when I say ceremonial, I’m thinking lamb sacrifice.

[TightEnd]

Three leading Leavers were ministers at DEXEU Davis, Baker and Raab.

They had ministerial responsibility for negotiating terms of exit - not Remainers.

And now all three have resigned, leaving behind this mess.

They had their chance, and flunked it.

Off to count cans of peaches

(deal has no chance in parliament unless Labour supports)

I think the buck stops with TM. They have clearly resigned because they could not get their way and what TM wanted has been forced onto them.

a better deal is simply not available

to quote her, its this, no deal or no brexit

a better deal was never available, Leave voters were sold a pup by (in my opinion) wealthy liars with vested interests, charlatans, hypocrites and the naive.

can't no deal because of a) economic damage and b) we are not ready (started preparing far too late). it would need 51 statute changes in 4 months

in 72 the EU bill took 10 months to get through parliament

so without a realistic prospect of WANTING no deal to hold over their head, we were in a negotiation holding 7-2 off going up against Aces on A-K-Q rainbow

its still might be no deal of course but its recognised as a disaster. May doesn't talk any more about "no deal is better than a bad deal" if you notice!

[RED-DOG]

Raab resigned......can’t back her deal.

Somewhere im England there is a big sigh as a man starts putting his tinned peaches back on the shelf...

I lolled.

[TightEnd]

The important thing about Raab's resignation isn't what it means for May. It's that his demands cannot be met through a negotiated exit. They can only be achieved through no deal:

says this

simply a must read!

"Theresa May's premiership is hanging by a thread, but more importantly, so is the United Kingdom."

https://www.newstatesman.com/2018/11/dominic-raabs-resignation-takes-britain-brink-no-deal-exit

[TightEnd]

McVey resigns

The Brexiteers leaving Cabinet are shameless and still not in the reality of the situation. Having promised an impossible vision of Brexit in the referendum, they are leaving the field and blaming a Prime Minister for failing to square their circle of fantasy.

[Woodsey]

Three leading Leavers were ministers at DEXEU Davis, Baker and Raab.

They had ministerial responsibility for negotiating terms of exit - not Remainers.

And now all three have resigned, leaving behind this mess.

They had their chance, and flunked it.

Off to count cans of peaches

(deal has no chance in parliament unless Labour supports)

I think the buck stops with TM. They have clearly resigned because they could not get their way and what TM wanted has been forced onto them.

a better deal is simply not available

to quote her, its this, no deal or no brexit

a better deal was never available, Leave voters were sold a pup by (in my opinion) wealthy liars with vested interests, charlatans, hypocrites and the naive.

can't no deal because of a) economic damage and b) we are not ready (started preparing far too late). it would need 51 statute changes in 4 months

in 72 the EU bill took 10 months to get through parliament

so without a realistic prospect of WANTING no deal to hold over their head, we were in a negotiation holding 7-2 off going up against Aces on A-K-Q rainbow

its still might be no deal of course but its recognised as a disaster. May doesn't talk any more about "no deal is better than a bad deal" if you notice!

I don’t think anyone really wants no deal, but as you say it had to be a serious option to get anything resembling a good deal. Basically they never really tested the EU, and as TM is a remainder at heart it’s clear to me she never really planned to. The only way we’d find out is if a couple of stronger Brexiteers were running the show and they had the balls to say they were walking away. Risky I know, but that’s the only way it would ever happen.

[Sheriff Fatman]

https://twitter.com/Baddiel/status/1063011169806499840

David Baddiel
‏Verified account
@Baddiel
I feel I should take the job of Brexit Secretary now. If only so that when I resign, Theresa May can finally be proved right than No Deal is better than a Baddiel.

10:09 AM - 15 Nov 2018

[Doobs]

Three leading Leavers were ministers at DEXEU Davis, Baker and Raab.

They had ministerial responsibility for negotiating terms of exit - not Remainers.

And now all three have resigned, leaving behind this mess.

They had their chance, and flunked it.

Off to count cans of peaches

(deal has no chance in parliament unless Labour supports)

I think the buck stops with TM. They have clearly resigned because they could not get their way and what TM wanted has been forced onto them.

a better deal is simply not available

to quote her, its this, no deal or no brexit

a better deal was never available, Leave voters were sold a pup by (in my opinion) wealthy liars with vested interests, charlatans, hypocrites and the naive.

can't no deal because of a) economic damage and b) we are not ready (started preparing far too late). it would need 51 statute changes in 4 months

in 72 the EU bill took 10 months to get through parliament

so without a realistic prospect of WANTING no deal to hold over their head, we were in a negotiation holding 7-2 off going up against Aces on A-K-Q rainbow

its still might be no deal of course but its recognised as a disaster. May doesn't talk any more about "no deal is better than a bad deal" if you notice!

I don’t think anyone really wants no deal, but as you say it had to be a serious option to get anything resembling a good deal. Basically they never really tested the EU, and as TM is a remainder at heart it’s clear to me she never really planned to. The only way we’d find out is if a couple of stronger Brexiteers were running the show and they had the balls to say they were walking away. Risky I know, but that’s the only way it would ever happen.

This is the narrative the likes of Farage like to push.   The problem is it doesn't square with reality.  It seems clear to me that May is willing to threaten to walk away with no deal, as that is exactly what she is doing right now with her own party.   She is facing them down and saying take this deal or we walk away and get no deal.   

Meanwhile a group of people who couldn't stand the heat are telling her she should man up and stand up to people... 

[Woodsey]

Three leading Leavers were ministers at DEXEU Davis, Baker and Raab.

They had ministerial responsibility for negotiating terms of exit - not Remainers.

And now all three have resigned, leaving behind this mess.

They had their chance, and flunked it.

Off to count cans of peaches

(deal has no chance in parliament unless Labour supports)

I think the buck stops with TM. They have clearly resigned because they could not get their way and what TM wanted has been forced onto them.

a better deal is simply not available

to quote her, its this, no deal or no brexit

a better deal was never available, Leave voters were sold a pup by (in my opinion) wealthy liars with vested interests, charlatans, hypocrites and the naive.

can't no deal because of a) economic damage and b) we are not ready (started preparing far too late). it would need 51 statute changes in 4 months

in 72 the EU bill took 10 months to get through parliament

so without a realistic prospect of WANTING no deal to hold over their head, we were in a negotiation holding 7-2 off going up against Aces on A-K-Q rainbow

its still might be no deal of course but its recognised as a disaster. May doesn't talk any more about "no deal is better than a bad deal" if you notice!

I don’t think anyone really wants no deal, but as you say it had to be a serious option to get anything resembling a good deal. Basically they never really tested the EU, and as TM is a remainder at heart it’s clear to me she never really planned to. The only way we’d find out is if a couple of stronger Brexiteers were running the show and they had the balls to say they were walking away. Risky I know, but that’s the only way it would ever happen.

This is the narrative the likes of Farage like to push.   The problem is it doesn't square with reality.  It seems clear to me that May is willing to threaten to walk away with no deal, as that is exactly what she is doing right now with her own party.   She is facing them down and saying take this deal or we walk away and get no deal.   

Meanwhile a group of people who couldn't stand the heat are telling her she should man up and stand up to people... 

I think you have got it the wrong way round, they are probably quitting because they would rather have no deal than what she is proposing. When they say no deal is better than a bad deal they mean it unlike TM.

[TightEnd]

"When they say no deal is better than a bad deal they mean it unlike TM."

May has stopped saying that because it is demonstrably untrue

[Woodsey]

"When they say no deal is better than a bad deal they mean it unlike TM."

May has stopped saying that because it is demonstrably untrue

The point being you don’t know whether a different deal that is better may come out of actually being serious about taking the no deal option and testing the EU which we basically never did. As TM is a remainder at heart I don’t believe she was ever serious about no deal.

[kukushkin88]

"When they say no deal is better than a bad deal they mean it unlike TM."

May has stopped saying that because it is demonstrably untrue

It’s worth noting that she always knew it to be untrue. The plan it seems was to lead the crazies (in her own Cabinet/Party) up to the edge of the cliff and hope that a look over the edge would persuade them to turn back.

[TightEnd]

"When they say no deal is better than a bad deal they mean it unlike TM."

May has stopped saying that because it is demonstrably untrue

It’s worth noting that she always knew it to be untrue. The plan it seems was to lead the crazies (in her own Cabinet/Party) up to the edge of the cliff and hope that a look over the edge would persuade them to turn back.

and if it doesn't the fun really starts

nothing gets through parliament which can't enact the only Brexit she can get

do you go back to the people and ask

- remain or no deal?

- this deal or no deal?

- remain, this deal or no deal?

and if you don't do this and don't extend A5,0 a new prime minister (?) has no time to negotiate anything different so its no deal

[Sheriff Fatman]

I think you have got it the wrong way round, they are probably quitting because they would rather have no deal than what she is proposing. When they say no deal is better than a bad deal they mean it unlike TM.

If there's one thing we've learned in recent months, it's that No Deal is the ultimate version of a bad deal.

The shit-show we've endured to get to this stage has at least meaningfully flushed out the consequences of leaving, in its various forms, that the referendum campaign spectacularly failed to do on both sides.

I'm yet to see anything from Rees-Mogg, Boris, etc with regard to how their alternative plans (to the extent that they exist) resolves the Northern Ireland issue without the creation of a hard border.  Principled (or not) resignations, changing the leader, changing the government, etc are all potentially likely scenarios in the short-term, but I'm struggling to see how any of these improves the situation with regard to how we exit the EU.

I have little sympathy for TM, as the 'red lines' she set out to negotiate on (in particular to end free movement and to leave the customs union) were not the universal conditions that leave voters demanded, and the failure to deliver on them is entirely within her remit, particularly as she gambled upon a General Election as part of that process and essentially worsened her position.  The fact is that we were simply never asked to give an opinion on this, which was the fundamental failure of a referendum set up with Cameron's underlying arrogance of it being impossible for him to lose (hence no preparations being made for the prospect of this happening).

I say the above as someone who voted leave in the referendum.  Given what's being offered at this stage (i.e. this deal, no deal or 'something else') I'd head firmly towards the uncertainty of something else as the two alternatives are so bad.  If a 'peoples vote' subsequently happened which included the option, I'd now vote remain, based on the evidence of the last two years which shows that a viable deal in the best interests of the UK doesn't exist.

Although this deal gives us a 'soft Brexit' initially, it's essentially only a stop-gap position until a harder form of Brexit can be agreed at some unspecified point in the future.  If that was possible, in a way that everyone could agree upon, it would have been the deal being brought to the table.  Consequently, we end up in a limbo situation which I can't realistically see us getting out of for a generation.

[Tal]

Reports that Gove has been offered the Brexit job