The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Woodsey]

Posting pics is simple.

Posting tweets is even easier - https://twitter.com/808sage/status/1188832423334662144

I haven’t worked it out despite people trying to help me.

[redsimon]

So, is Boris Johnson going to win?

Terrific instant analysis from the guru Kellner

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/other/snap-general-election-will-boris-johnsons-conservative-party-win-a-majority-parliament-labour-corbyn-polls-12-december

Very good. I read The Brexit Party are meant to be letting us know their election plans on Friday....they might concentrate on certain winnable seats ? Big moment for the Tories if that happens.

They have zero winnable seats so will be interesting to see where they stand

[Doobs]

So, is Boris Johnson going to win?

Terrific instant analysis from the guru Kellner

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/other/snap-general-election-will-boris-johnsons-conservative-party-win-a-majority-parliament-labour-corbyn-polls-12-december

Very good. I read The Brexit Party are meant to be letting us know their election plans on Friday....they might concentrate on certain winnable seats ? Big moment for the Tories if that happens.

They have zero winnable seats so will be interesting to see where they stand

Seeing Farage's lot get zero seats again will almost make the election worthwhile.  I wonder if people in TV will get the message and cut down on his appearences.  Guess we won't be rid of them completely. Farage will just move on to campaigning for a "pure" Brexit for a few years, and guess he'll still find a way to keep trousering fortunes.

Hopefully we still get to see Mark Francois on TV though? 

[Longines]

Hopefully we still get to see Mark Francois on TV though? 

From Twitter 

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Farage promises a national campaign to convince the British people that Boris Johnson’s deal is a sell-out and to contest every seat in the country if the Tories do not embrace his clean break Brexit.

Writing the Conservative Party manifesto just got a whole load trickier.

Farage gives Johnson until the close of nominations on November 14th to row in with him

Johnson can't campaign against his own deal lol, as well many Tory MPs wouldn't stand on a no deal platform

All Farage has done in his speech is make a Con majority slightly trickier and without that Brexit is at risk of at minimum further delayed in another hung parliament

Odd tactcis.

[Jon MW]

Farage promises a national campaign to convince the British people that Boris Johnson’s deal is a sell-out and to contest every seat in the country if the Tories do not embrace his clean break Brexit.

Writing the Conservative Party manifesto just got a whole load trickier.

Farage gives Johnson until the close of nominations on November 14th to row in with him

Johnson can't campaign against his own deal lol, as well many Tory MPs wouldn't stand on a no deal platform

All Farage has done in his speech is make a Con majority slightly trickier and without that Brexit is at risk of at minimum further delayed in another hung parliament

Odd tactcis.

If we leave the EU - doesn't the Brexit party collapse?

Seems like it's in Farage's personal interest to delay it as long as possible

[nirvana]

Farage promises a national campaign to convince the British people that Boris Johnson’s deal is a sell-out and to contest every seat in the country if the Tories do not embrace his clean break Brexit.

Writing the Conservative Party manifesto just got a whole load trickier.

Farage gives Johnson until the close of nominations on November 14th to row in with him

Johnson can't campaign against his own deal lol, as well many Tory MPs wouldn't stand on a no deal platform

All Farage has done in his speech is make a Con majority slightly trickier and without that Brexit is at risk of at minimum further delayed in another hung parliament

Odd tactcis.

Sometimes you can't avoid the impression that he likes his MEP sinecure too much to give it up without a fight

[mulhuzz]

Farage promises a national campaign to convince the British people that Boris Johnson’s deal is a sell-out and to contest every seat in the country if the Tories do not embrace his clean break Brexit.

Writing the Conservative Party manifesto just got a whole load trickier.

Farage gives Johnson until the close of nominations on November 14th to row in with him

Johnson can't campaign against his own deal lol, as well many Tory MPs wouldn't stand on a no deal platform

All Farage has done in his speech is make a Con majority slightly trickier and without that Brexit is at risk of at minimum further delayed in another hung parliament

Odd tactcis.

Sometimes you can't avoid the impression that he likes his MEP sinecure too much to give it up without a fight

quite so. very odd. Surely they don't have the resources to contest every seat, anyway...

[nirvana]

Brexit party and the FBPE ers/LDs have done more to polarise this country than you can lay at the door of Labour and Tory.

I know we can't turn back the clock but it is so regrettable that Labour and Tory didn't get together in the aftermath of the ref and resolve to do make the absolute best of a challenging situation. Lack of leadership all round which is barely better today.

[nirvana]

Farage promises a national campaign to convince the British people that Boris Johnson’s deal is a sell-out and to contest every seat in the country if the Tories do not embrace his clean break Brexit.

Writing the Conservative Party manifesto just got a whole load trickier.

Farage gives Johnson until the close of nominations on November 14th to row in with him

Johnson can't campaign against his own deal lol, as well many Tory MPs wouldn't stand on a no deal platform

All Farage has done in his speech is make a Con majority slightly trickier and without that Brexit is at risk of at minimum further delayed in another hung parliament

Odd tactcis.

Sometimes you can't avoid the impression that he likes his MEP sinecure too much to give it up without a fight

quite so. very odd. Surely they don't have the resources to contest every seat, anyway...

Aye, posturing that the Tories can never agree to imo and a fairly empty threat.  The end of the Tories is often forecast but I think it is the end for them, from any kind of philosophical perspective, to throw their lot in with the Brexit party.

[TightEnd]

I can't work out the logic of it

No parliament elected is going to accept no deal, even without a ot of the moderates who are standing down the majority of the Conservative MPs maybe leavers but they are not "no deal" advocates. a minority clearly are

by standing in every seat he takes a few percent off the tory vote. In some cases this will swing marginals

So by doing so he at best reduces the size of a Tory majority (and some of that majority won't support no deal) and at worst (for Brexit) produces a hung parliament

If we get another hung parliament Brexit actually happening is less likely, delays inevitable.

A compromise/pact would have given him a seat at the table, but instead once more there is no compromise that leads the risk of losing the ultimate prize?

[Doobs]

I can't work out the logic of it

No parliament elected is going to accept no deal, even without a ot of the moderates who are standing down the majority of the Conservative MPs maybe leavers but they are not "no deal" advocates. a minority clearly are

by standing in every seat he takes a few percent off the tory vote. In some cases this will swing marginals

So by doing so he at best reduces the size of a Tory majority (and some of that majority won't support no deal) and at worst (for Brexit) produces a hung parliament

If we get another hung parliament Brexit actually happening is less likely, delays inevitable.

A compromise/pact would have given him a seat at the table, but instead once more there is no compromise that leads the risk of losing the ultimate prize?

odds against to win one seat, so winning seats can't be the aim?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.162087718

edit, bad misread, but it is only slightly odds on

[TightEnd]

they won't win seats

but in marginals a few percent of the votes from CON to BXP matters, a few less Con seats reduces the likelihood of the necessary majority to deliver Brexit

the fact that it is not a 100% clean break no deal brexit, (but still pretty hard with a no deal out at the end of 2020 anyway) is a complete red herring compared to the risk of another hung parliament (if you want Brexit)

Farage can't see the wood for the trees!

[mulhuzz]

they won't win seats

but in marginals a few percent of the votes from CON to BXP matters, a few less Con seats reduces the likelihood of the necessary majority to deliver Brexit

the fact that it is not a 100% clean break no deal brexit, (but still pretty hard with a no deal out at the end of 2020 anyway) is a complete red herring compared to the risk of another hung parliament (if you want Brexit)

Farage can't see the wood for the trees!

or maybe he can and his incentives aren't what we suppose. Maybe he wants delay to continue trousering money whilst being in the spotlight, or maybe he wants a hung parliament because it will lead to a second referendum (potentially, depending on how hung it is...) which gives him the opportunity to put the issue to bed forever. Vote once when you don't know what you're voting for, vote again when it's clear what Brexit means on a more tailored, specific question and the issue is dead for a generation or more. Maybe he thinks that this Brexit (or indeed any Brexit) is likely to lead to a campaign to rejoin the EU, and maybe he wants to put that to bed before it's even got off the ground.

[Cf]

they won't win seats

but in marginals a few percent of the votes from CON to BXP matters, a few less Con seats reduces the likelihood of the necessary majority to deliver Brexit

the fact that it is not a 100% clean break no deal brexit, (but still pretty hard with a no deal out at the end of 2020 anyway) is a complete red herring compared to the risk of another hung parliament (if you want Brexit)

Farage can't see the wood for the trees!

I hope during the campaign the remain parties attack this line to show there is no such thing.