Even though it's not obvious that the Tories are running much of a decent campaign at the moment I believe they will eventually cut through with a limited number of simple messages when people stop resigning, apologising and being booted out.
I feel the Brexit party vote will fall away to a fairly large degree as Farage is sounding ever more swivel eyed - 'this isn't Brexit' is unikely to cut through with very many people imo.
LDs probably attract more of the marching Waitrosians (former Labour and Tory voters) than Farage attracts of jackbooted brexiters.
Can't see anything other than a 50 seat Tory Majority however well Labour continues to campaign with strong NHS and socially oriented messages
The prediction is similar to that which many expected last time around, but I'm struggling to see where they will make the gains to achieve this. Polling and vote share leads are one thing, but the distribution of those votes are important under our voting system.
From the current starting point, the Tories are likely to lose the seats they picked up in Scotland in 2017 to the SNP/Lib Dems. They will probably also have more seat losses than Labour arising from the expected Lib Dem gains. There's a very big question mark on how many seats the Lib Dems will gain, but I don't think any reasonably expects them to stand still or get fewer seats.
That pretty much boils down the election to the Tory/Labour marginals and it's hard to see how either of them currently make the gains they need here to secure a majority. For me personally, this is the one crumb of comfort I'm clinging on to with regard to the election taking place.
For the Tories to achieve it, they need to eliminate the Brexit Party threat to their vote share and get people to buy-in to their campaign of 'Get Brexit Done' which seems too divisive a message in a country which is pretty much 50:50 split on Brexit. Yes, they have more effective campaigners than the 2017 Maybot campaign, but if we see too many of the Rees-Mogg, Bridgen, Cleverly type interventions, then the whole 'nasty party' image starts to cut through.
For Labour, they are very much attacking the Lib Dems currently and it was very obvious yesterday that there had been a co-ordinated "Vote Lib Dem, get Tories" social media campaign. Their success relies on getting enough Remain votes from their 'neutral on Brexit' strategy, and avoiding any 'Toxic Corbyn' collateral damage. Weirdly, their most effective campaigning tool may well be jumping on the Tory mis-steps, than it will be on getting their own arguments to resonate with the non-converted.
Things may change, but right now, I'm struggling to see how either of them achieve a majority. The only thing I can predict with a reasonable degree of confidence is that the new Parliament will have more SNP and Lib Dem MP's than before.
Easy to take your ticket on this as a more likely scenario tbf. It's been a very long time since the tories were able to command a significant majority. Just have a fee
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