The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

"There are 2 possible explanations for Corbyn's terrible poll ratings. It's tricky, they both seem equally plausible."

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[TightEnd]

Interest rate cut today

(next step is quantitative easing again, negative interest rates etc as conventional monetary policy is runnign out of scope to do much)

one comment article interprets as follows

The Bank of England has just taken a huge risk – on a Brexit boom http://specc.ie/2aTqPEV 

[Sheriff Fatman]

gulp

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To your average bloke in the street this means nothing to them.  They don't 'feel' any of that in real terms (albeit maybe they will down the line).

The 0.25% interest rate cut does mean something positive for most of them though, unless they're pensioners or reliant on savings income.

[TightEnd]

PMIs, confidence indexes etc are forward indicators.

joe bloggs might not understand it, but he'll feel it soon enough. i know a few people who are as i indicated before the weekend

someone popped up earlier with the following

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[RickBFA]

Heard a radio interview today about the gloomy projections.

The guy interviewed was super positive in his outlook and was bemoaning the constant negativity, especially in press/social media/TV.

His basic point was that in a consumer led economy if we are constantly told the outlook is negative that's what we'll get.

When consumers think there are bad times forecast they reign in spending and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

[TightEnd]

the most important BOE forecast in the rate cut text yesterday

[DMorgan]

Link is broken for me Rich

[TightEnd]

Link is broken for me Rich

sorry it was an image, and i can't find it now, from the FT

The BOE in its report yesterday said that the path of growth through to 2019 is about 2.5% lower (GDP) than it would have been and cannot be countered by monetary policy with rates now down to 0.25%.

[doubleup]

Heard a radio interview today about the gloomy projections.

The guy interviewed was super positive in his outlook and was bemoaning the constant negativity, especially in press/social media/TV.

His basic point was that in a consumer led economy if we are constantly told the outlook is negative that's what we'll get.

When consumers think there are bad times forecast they reign in spending and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

breathtaking

[DMorgan]

Link is broken for me Rich

sorry it was an image, and i can't find it now, from the FT

The BOE in its report yesterday said that the path of growth through to 2019 is about 2.5% lower (GDP) than it would have been and cannot be countered by monetary policy with rates now down to 0.25%.

Thanks, I really think that the BoE needs to find ways to make its data more accessible to the electorate, or maybe thats something that the Treasury should be doing

2.5 is a small number, its going to be very hard to convince anyone that doesn't take much of an interest in the figures that 2.5% of anything is much to worry about. Until they start talking about these numbers in terms of schools, hospitals etc that people can actually relate to they may as well be speaking another language.

The answer is staring them right in the face, the bullshit £350 million for the NHS on the side of a bus got people interested and talking about the referendum, it didn't matter that the claim couldn't stand up to scrutiny. If the powers that be want people to actually care about trying to avert major job losses and more spending cuts then they have to engage with the voters that chose to believe the bus over the BoE.

Perhaps though the Tories are comfortable with the stream of dry facts and figures to stop people talking about the coming recession. The last one provided all the cover that they wanted to implement their ideology of a shrunken public sector and Labours corpse is still warm so they don't have to appease anyone. They can blame the recession on the 'will of the people' which by the letter of the law is true. It would explain why May is going hard on 'Brexit means Brexit' so that they can accept whatever deal comes back. A deal that will inevitably be worse for us than EU membership because the other EU members can't offer us better terms and expect their institution to survive.

[TightEnd]

put in laymans terms then

"Even so, the Bank said cumulative GDP growth over its forecast horizon is 2.5 per cent lower than forecast in the Bank’s May Inflation Report – the biggest three monthly downgrade in the Bank’s modern history of forecasting since the central bank was made independent in 1997.

The downgrade implies a roughly £45bn hit to the economy over the next three years as a direct result of the Brexit vote (the equivalent of a £1,750 loss for each of the country’s 26 million households)."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/interest-rate-cut-decision-brexit-eu-referendum-bank-of-england-mark-carney-a7171596.html

[DMorgan]

Heard a radio interview today about the gloomy projections.

The guy interviewed was super positive in his outlook and was bemoaning the constant negativity, especially in press/social media/TV.

His basic point was that in a consumer led economy if we are constantly told the outlook is negative that's what we'll get.

When consumers think there are bad times forecast they reign in spending and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

Its my favourite film I couldn't resist

Edit: Fair play to the guy though for sticking to his guns which is more than can be said for most of the Leave leadership

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[MintTrav]

Unbelievable that anyone would question the nomination of Shami Chakrabarti to the Lords. It's hard to think of anyone more deserving or who is likely to use the position to make a greater contribution. People criticising it and, in particular, opportunists questioning her intregrity should be ashamed.

[TightEnd]

Unbelievable that anyone would question the nomination of Shami Chakrabarti to the Lords. It's hard to think of anyone more deserving or who is likely to use the position to make a greater contribution. People criticising it and, in particular, opportunists questioning her intregrity should be ashamed.

Nonsense. Corbyn pledged not to nominate anyone for the lords and broke the pledge in short order. the anti-semitism enquiry was a clear whitewash (mention of anti semitism was even booed at the hustings last night, not a good look) and this is Chakrabati's reward for playing ball

of course longer term she is deserving but at this particular point it stinks. by the way she's now being nominated by all three major parties, but accepted it this time
this is not to defend Cameron's exit honours either, the sort of thing that gives the establishment a bad name and drives votes to ukip, snp etc

[TightEnd]

its bad politics too. corbyn should be able to make hay at the expense of the cameron honours but can't as he's in the trough too with the chakrabati nomination. indeed he hasn't said a word.