The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Something I never expected to write - The Tories' biggest lead is in Wales

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

this is a fun graph

Party leader ratings can be instructive of Election outcomes, often more so than traditional polling. 2017 looks rough for Labour

Click to see full-size image.

[Ironside]

labour close the gap by 10%? really?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-gain-tory-victory-theresa-may-general-election-8-june-yougov-opinium-polls-a7709961.html?cmpid=facebook-post

[The Camel]

labour close the gap by 10%? really?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-gain-tory-victory-theresa-may-general-election-8-june-yougov-opinium-polls-a7709961.html?cmpid=facebook-post

Theresa May might have some qualities, but a being top election campaigner is certainly not one of them.

She clearly hates glad handing members of the public and is completely useless talking without a script. Absolutely no surprise she has refused to take part in a leaders debate.

I don't think it is going to happen, but what a fascinating situation a hung parliament would be in the current climate.

[Marky147]

They had David Milliband on Maher last week, and I thought he seemed quite an impressive guy.

I vaguely remember reading about those 2 going head to head for the top job. If that' wa the case, it seems quite astonishing how his brother ended up leader of the Labour party, over him.

[Woodsey]

They had David Milliband on Maher last week, and I thought he seemed quite an impressive guy.

I vaguely remember reading about those 2 going head to head for the top job. If that' wa the case, it seems quite astonishing how his brother ended up leader of the Labour party, over him.

He would have had a decent chance of beating David Cameron, The problem for labour is when JC gets ditched the hard core left of the Labour Party will still want someone too left to be leader and vote them in. If they don't realise that centre/right is the only way for them to get elected they are doomed to failure forever......

[The Camel]

Hypothetically speaking.

Tories are the largest party but even with Ulster Unionist support they can't form a majority government.

I cannot see the Lib Dems going into coalition with Theresa May. Or Jeremy Corbyn for that matter.

So, the Tories jettison May in favour of Phillip Hammond and we get the softest of soft brexits?

Or Labour dump Corbyn and we get no brexit at all?

Plausible?

[nirvana]

Hypothetically speaking.

Tories are the largest party but even with Ulster Unionist support they can't form a majority government.

I cannot see the Lib Dems going into coalition with Theresa May. Or Jeremy Corbyn for that matter.

So, the Tories jettison May in favour of Phillip Hammond and we get the softest of soft brexits?

Or Labour dump Corbyn and we get no brexit at all?

Plausible?

I'd like to give you some hope Keith, genuinely, as I will be voting Labour.

But even though I think the gap will close, I don't think there's any chance of anything other than a pretty significant Tory majority

[Marky147]

They had David Milliband on Maher last week, and I thought he seemed quite an impressive guy.

I vaguely remember reading about those 2 going head to head for the top job. If that' wa the case, it seems quite astonishing how his brother ended up leader of the Labour party, over him.

He would have had a decent chance of beating David Cameron, The problem for labour is when JC gets ditched the hard core left of the Labour Party will still want someone too left to be leader and vote them in. If they don't realise that centre/right is the only way for them to get elected they are doomed to failure forever......

He seemed very likeable and intelligent. Guess that is why he got out of politics.

[The Camel]

Hypothetically speaking.

Tories are the largest party but even with Ulster Unionist support they can't form a majority government.

I cannot see the Lib Dems going into coalition with Theresa May. Or Jeremy Corbyn for that matter.

So, the Tories jettison May in favour of Phillip Hammond and we get the softest of soft brexits?

Or Labour dump Corbyn and we get no brexit at all?

Plausible?

I'd like to give you some hope Keith, genuinely, as I will be voting Labour.

But even though I think the gap will close, I don't think there's any chance of anything other than a pretty significant Tory majority

Lead has halved in about a week.

[TightEnd]

rough translation of Juncker's version of the talks last week from the German newspapers yesterday

most encouraging,er...

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Brexit: UK may have to recognise ECJ court rulings to keep security cooperation

Britain’s last EU commissioner suggests this could form part of talks with EU27 after bloc agreed tough negotiating guidelines

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/30/brexit-uk-may-have-to-recognise-ecj-court-rulings-to-keep-security-cooperation?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[TightEnd]

Heavy defeat could allow Labour’s hardliners to elect another Corbyn

Critics of leader could be swept away, leaving the left proportionately stronger

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/labour-party-election-hammering-could-strengthen-corbyn-support?CMP=twt_gu

[TightEnd]

Despite the efforts of Remainers, organised tactical voting is unlikely to get very far

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21721402-brexit-may-swing-voters-and-few-seats-formal-campaigns-organise-remain-vote-face?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/requiemforloserseffortstoorganisemasstacticalvotinghitamathematicalwall

[TightEnd]

ICM/Sun:

CON 47 (-1)
LAB 28 (+1)
LD 9 (-1)
UKIP 8 (+1)
GRN 4 (+1)
SNP 4 (=)

Fieldwork end of the week

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3446681/jeremy-corbyn-is-heading-for-a-rout-in-junes-general-election-as-he-lags-behind-theresa-may/

Click to see full-size image.