The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[nirvana]

I have been resolute in my decision to vote OUT from the start but I'm afraid to say William Hague has cast doubt into my mind! Friggin William Hague! Perhaps it's ok to be part of something and not like it at the same time. We have all turned into soothsayers who know exactly how this organic, constantly changing EU is going to shape up in the future. We definitely wont have any influence over the direction it travels by standing outside the room. We chat about immigration but I bet Merkel has refined her welcome mat views after recent events and EU leaders will undoubtedly re-think strategy. Maybe in a few years we will really lol want to join again? Maybe if we had a shit hot PM working on our behalf he/she could really influence the EU in our favour?

The road map of both decisions should have been plotted out for sure but the truth is nobody has a Scooby Do what will happen. Europe could flourish in union over the next 10 years or Europe could fail completely, it's unchartered waters, nobody can really say, it's a matter of impulse. For example just as I become undecided I hear that Wolfgang Schauble says we wont be allowed single market access if we leave and now I find myself firmly committed to leaving again. As the line approaches I'm wavering and confused. Don't know why house prices going down is a bad thing. Is that bad thing? I will consider all things and review all evidence but any more threats from the Germans and that's that I'm afraid!

House prices going down is unequivocally a good thing - in no other area of the economy is inflation considered a positive (slightly simplistic). If politicians really meant the children/grandchildren thing they'd actively seek to ensure house prices are depressed.

House price inflation is our notional compensation for crap wage levels, crap pensions, crap redundancy terms, crap unemployment benefits with an illusion of wealth that most of us never realise. The real gains are made by who - the facilitators (banking), the uber landlords, speculators blah blah blah

Just waiting for the paint to dry on my sandwich board - am frothing today

[MANTIS01]

For example just as I become undecided I hear that Wolfgang Schauble says we wont be allowed single market access if we leave and now I find myself firmly committed to leaving again.

You can't handle the truth

Ah the Colonel Nathan Jessop argument...

[nirvana]

For example just as I become undecided I hear that Wolfgang Schauble says we wont be allowed single market access if we leave and now I find myself firmly committed to leaving again.

You can't handle the truth

We will be allowed access to this market - the terms might change but access won't be denied will it ?

[bobAlike]

the average German on the street wants us to leave just to see how it goes.

What's the German word for schadenfreude?

Lol, I genuinely don't believe that schadenfreude is the reason. More likely keen to understand the consequences.

[nirvana]

For example just as I become undecided I hear that Wolfgang Schauble says we wont be allowed single market access if we leave and now I find myself firmly committed to leaving again.

You can't handle the truth

We will be allowed access to this market - the terms might change but access won't be denied will it ?

It's also far from a single market today izzit - it's 28 countries or whatever with various levels of protectionism.

I know a guy on the border of Austria / Germany - south of Garmisch. His business is taking orders from Austrians, placing the orders with online retailers in Germany, accepting delivery and then making the goods available for his Austrian customers to collect. The Austrian consumer saves money, the middle man makes money - is that a single market ?

[bobAlike]

here

Somehow reminds me of...



Don't know why

[arbboy]

same question another way

we are used to shy tories

we also had an element of shy unionist in the scottish campaign

is there a "shy remain" element at play here?

vote leave are more passionate (those wanting change going to be compared to those happy with the status quo), louder on social media?


as an aside, and i know the tory v tory stuff has been very unedifying but one Labour MP reported being on the stump in a northern town and

a) a majority of labour voters thought labour's official stance was to leave
b) an even bigger majority of labour working class voters they canvassed were leave (a lot on immigration grounds)  

Remain needs a solid labour vote to come out but with Corbyn so low profile and a lot of distraction on the tory battles i am not so sure it will

i am beginning to wonder!

The shy remain is the only reason remain is 75/25 in the betting. Can't be any other reason surely?

As for the Labour stance I would imagine the average working class labour voter who has no interest in politics on a day by day basis would assume Labour would stand for leave.   Protecting lower paid UK jobs from economic immigrants from the EU on a really simplistic view.

Is leave not a max bet then Arb?

In my head leave should be a small favourite, looking at the polls and which groups are going to be most motivated to vote?

Shy remain vote is so powerful though potentially but i do agree it will be very close and it looks value.   

[doubleup]

the average German on the street wants us to leave just to see how it goes.

What's the German word for schadenfreude?

Lol, I genuinely don't believe that schadenfreude is the reason. More likely keen to understand the consequences.

They are in the euro so hugely different kettle of Fisch.  There might be an argument that the UK being out would be great for closer Eurozone union as the UK blocks anything that it thinks would affect UK financial services.

 

[RED-DOG]

here

Thanks Simon.

[doubleup]

For example just as I become undecided I hear that Wolfgang Schauble says we wont be allowed single market access if we leave and now I find myself firmly committed to leaving again.

You can't handle the truth

We will be allowed access to this market - the terms might change but access won't be denied will it ?

It's also far from a single market today izzit - it's 28 countries or whatever with various levels of protectionism.

I know a guy on the border of Austria / Germany - south of Garmisch. His business is taking orders from Austrians, placing the orders with online retailers in Germany, accepting delivery and then making the goods available for his Austrian customers to collect. The Austrian consumer saves money, the middle man makes money - is that a single market ?

The single market is about removing tariff and non-tariff barriers in the areas where it has been introduced.  Obviously there are difference in local taxes etc, but they can't be used to favour local products.  cliffs smugglers gonna smuggle     

[nirvana]

For example just as I become undecided I hear that Wolfgang Schauble says we wont be allowed single market access if we leave and now I find myself firmly committed to leaving again.

You can't handle the truth

We will be allowed access to this market - the terms might change but access won't be denied will it ?

It's also far from a single market today izzit - it's 28 countries or whatever with various levels of protectionism.

I know a guy on the border of Austria / Germany - south of Garmisch. His business is taking orders from Austrians, placing the orders with online retailers in Germany, accepting delivery and then making the goods available for his Austrian customers to collect. The Austrian consumer saves money, the middle man makes money - is that a single market ?

The single market is about removing tariff and non-tariff barriers in the areas where it has been introduced.  Obviously there are difference in local taxes etc, but they can't be used to favour local products.  cliffs smugglers gonna smuggle    

Should there be a concept of smuggling in a single market or should we change the term to single market with local sales taxes and duties that distort pricing for the average joe ?

[dwh103]

I have been resolute in my decision to vote OUT from the start but I'm afraid to say William Hague has cast doubt into my mind! Friggin William Hague! Perhaps it's ok to be part of something and not like it at the same time. We have all turned into soothsayers who know exactly how this organic, constantly changing EU is going to shape up in the future. We definitely wont have any influence over the direction it travels by standing outside the room. We chat about immigration but I bet Merkel has refined her welcome mat views after recent events and EU leaders will undoubtedly re-think strategy. Maybe in a few years we will really lol want to join again? Maybe if we had a shit hot PM working on our behalf he/she could really influence the EU in our favour?

The road map of both decisions should have been plotted out for sure but the truth is nobody has a Scooby Do what will happen. Europe could flourish in union over the next 10 years or Europe could fail completely, it's unchartered waters, nobody can really say, it's a matter of impulse. For example just as I become undecided I hear that Wolfgang Schauble says we wont be allowed single market access if we leave and now I find myself firmly committed to leaving again. As the line approaches I'm wavering and confused. Don't know why house prices going down is a bad thing. Is that bad thing? I will consider all things and review all evidence but any more threats from the Germans and that's that I'm afraid!

Pretty much sums up my feelings.

I'm not a fan of large parts of the EU and was waivering for some time, but given the Leave campaign have presented me with nothing logical or concrete to go on I'll be a reluctant Remainer.

I can accept that immigration is a concern for many, but for me it's a product of globalisation and not the EU - is somewhat unavoidable. In any case, with the growth of nationalist parties across Europe it'll only be a matter of time before the free movement of people pillar is severely under threat. Someone will restrict it, just a case of whether it's those already in power, or the ones that will replace them if they don't.

[doubleup]

For example just as I become undecided I hear that Wolfgang Schauble says we wont be allowed single market access if we leave and now I find myself firmly committed to leaving again.

You can't handle the truth

We will be allowed access to this market - the terms might change but access won't be denied will it ?

It's also far from a single market today izzit - it's 28 countries or whatever with various levels of protectionism.

I know a guy on the border of Austria / Germany - south of Garmisch. His business is taking orders from Austrians, placing the orders with online retailers in Germany, accepting delivery and then making the goods available for his Austrian customers to collect. The Austrian consumer saves money, the middle man makes money - is that a single market ?

The single market is about removing tariff and non-tariff barriers in the areas where it has been introduced.  Obviously there are difference in local taxes etc, but they can't be used to favour local products.  cliffs smugglers gonna smuggle    

Should there be a concept of smuggling in a single market or should we change the term to single market with local sales taxes and duties that distort pricing for the average joe ?

Whatever you want to call it, we will be out of it and face tariffs and customs controls if we leave.

[RickBFA]

For example just as I become undecided I hear that Wolfgang Schauble says we wont be allowed single market access if we leave and now I find myself firmly committed to leaving again.

You can't handle the truth

We will be allowed access to this market - the terms might change but access won't be denied will it ?

It's also far from a single market today izzit - it's 28 countries or whatever with various levels of protectionism.

I know a guy on the border of Austria / Germany - south of Garmisch. His business is taking orders from Austrians, placing the orders with online retailers in Germany, accepting delivery and then making the goods available for his Austrian customers to collect. The Austrian consumer saves money, the middle man makes money - is that a single market ?

The single market is about removing tariff and non-tariff barriers in the areas where it has been introduced.  Obviously there are difference in local taxes etc, but they can't be used to favour local products.  cliffs smugglers gonna smuggle    

Should there be a concept of smuggling in a single market or should we change the term to single market with local sales taxes and duties that distort pricing for the average joe ?

Whatever you want to call it, we will be out of it and face tariffs and customs controls if we leave.

The Germans want to appear to play hard ball publicly because they are crapping themselves about the implications for the EU if we leave.

We are the second biggest net contributor after Germany. The EU loses circa 4 billion euros net if we go. That's got to be found elsewhere if the EU are going to support failing economies and try to improve the prosperity of Eastern European countries joining the EU.

I genuinely think that if we go it will create other pressures from other countries. You can only support so many screwed economies like Greece for so long.

They will of course quietly do a trade deal with us because its in their interests given what they export to us.

You do wonder where the EU may end up in say 5 years time if we leave.

[doubleup]

For example just as I become undecided I hear that Wolfgang Schauble says we wont be allowed single market access if we leave and now I find myself firmly committed to leaving again.

You can't handle the truth

We will be allowed access to this market - the terms might change but access won't be denied will it ?

It's also far from a single market today izzit - it's 28 countries or whatever with various levels of protectionism.

I know a guy on the border of Austria / Germany - south of Garmisch. His business is taking orders from Austrians, placing the orders with online retailers in Germany, accepting delivery and then making the goods available for his Austrian customers to collect. The Austrian consumer saves money, the middle man makes money - is that a single market ?

The single market is about removing tariff and non-tariff barriers in the areas where it has been introduced.  Obviously there are difference in local taxes etc, but they can't be used to favour local products.  cliffs smugglers gonna smuggle    

Should there be a concept of smuggling in a single market or should we change the term to single market with local sales taxes and duties that distort pricing for the average joe ?

Whatever you want to call it, we will be out of it and face tariffs and customs controls if we leave.

The Germans want to appear to play hard ball publicly because they are crapping themselves about the implications for the EU if we leave.

We are the second biggest net contributor after Germany. The EU loses circa 4 billion euros net if we go. That's got to be found elsewhere if the EU are going to support failing economies and try to improve the prosperity of Eastern European countries joining the EU.

I genuinely think that if we go it will create other pressures from other countries. You can only support so many screwed economies like Greece for so long.

They will of course quietly do a trade deal with us because its in their interests given what they export to us.

You do wonder where the EU may end up in say 5 years time if we leave.

No one is doing a deal.  Brexit can't produce one single country to back up their free trade fantasy.  It's odd that people who say what Brexit doesn't want to hear are always lying.