The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[neeko]

Betfair punters now make it a 76% chance that Article 50 won't be invoked, if at all, until after July 1 2017

Remain now trading at 1.3 implying a 76% chance, Leave now just a 24% chance.

£45.3m traded - biggest political market in Betfair history

French and German elections are not until 2017 so no point invoking until after then.

My guess would be late 2018 so that it won't activate till after the end of the European budget process in 2020 and after the uk election in 2020 with the winning party able to quit the process if the vote went against the brexit parties.

I thought it couldn't be cancelled once it started (?)

Ultimately it is just a political construct, so they can do what they want, if a new UK govt says that lot were wrong we don't want to leave - what will Europe do not let us stay?

To work out the exact legal position of if we can cancel article 50 will take years, so easier just to accept it and move on.

[TightEnd]

Sorry, minimum wage workers. Those sunlit uplands aren't for you.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

more post brexit research, this time for the TUC

Most people think reducing immigration is "essential":

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Remain won on prices & investment. But they weren't important to voters. Immigration & control of laws were

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[TightEnd]

Former staffer claims Corbyn adviser spoke of 'Jewish conspiracy' http://bit.ly/2aw1USG

[TightEnd]

This made me chuckle

Duncan Hothersall ‏@dhothersall

Head of Momentum has never voted Labour, backed Tories when Labour was in government, was head of Lib Dems at uni and voted Green in 2015.


interviewed yesterday James Schneider said that he supported the Tories while at school because the A level economics syllabus taught the "hard neoliberal consensus"

:-)

[redsimon]

Click to see full-size image.

From The FT/ Twitter

[Woodsey]

more post brexit research, this time for the TUC

Most people think reducing immigration is "essential":

Click to see full-size image.

If governments had pulled their finger out and bothered to do something about this we would not be leaving the EU.

[TightEnd]

Breaking Five new members of the Labour Party win High Court battle over right to vote in leadership election

Corbyn now has a decent chance of winning by more than last time

[Doobs]

This made me chuckle

Duncan Hothersall ‏@dhothersall

Head of Momentum has never voted Labour, backed Tories when Labour was in government, was head of Lib Dems at uni and voted Green in 2015.


interviewed yesterday James Schneider said that he supported the Tories while at school because the A level economics syllabus taught the "hard neoliberal consensus"

:-)

Every member of socialist worker was a Quentin when I was at university.  It was all "rah, rah, hunt was splendid at the weekend" until someone walked past and they put on their best commoner voice to shout "socialist worker".  Of course, the World changes and of course these aren't the people who compete to be the most left wing on twitter. 

I think I might give pokerbroker a Quentin voice when reading his posts.

Winning for Corbyn as in losing for labour?

[redsimon]

Breaking Five new members of the Labour Party win High Court battle over right to vote in leadership election

Corbyn now has a decent chance of winning by more than last time

Rumour was if they won court case Smith might withdraw ?

[TightEnd]

What will today’s High Court decision actually change about the outcome of Labour’s leadership contest? http://specc.ie/2b0hHNm

[TightEnd]

So: Labour could have to deal with c100,000 registered supporters who paid £25 but were also new members and work out how to refund them.

an admin headache for sure, but nothing insurmountable. Quite the dent to election funds if May does go early though

[DaveShoelace]

Gotta big up how quickly the Tories go their leadership contest done compared to this shambles, it hasn't done much for the narrative that the left can't stop in-fighting long enough to get anything done.

[redsimon]

Gotta big up how quickly the Tories go their leadership contest done compared to this shambles, it hasn't done much for the narrative that the left can't stop in-fighting long enough to get anything done.

Not sure if you're serious here, but the Labour Leadership election wasn't caused by left in-fighting.