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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2181099 times)
The Camel
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« Reply #8760 on: May 26, 2017, 09:04:11 AM »

And that polll was taken post Manchester bombing, which was supposedly going to harden Tory support.

We are living in very strange times.

Correction. The poll was taken pre Manchester.

don't think thats correct,its taken tuesday/wednesday

You're right.

I got the info from a Times journalist Twitter account, but he was talking about a different poll. @samcoatestimes
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« Reply #8761 on: May 26, 2017, 09:18:27 AM »

And that polll was taken post Manchester bombing, which was supposedly going to harden Tory support.

We are living in very strange times.

Correction. The poll was taken pre Manchester.

don't think thats correct,its taken tuesday/wednesday

You're right.

I got the info from a Times journalist Twitter account, but he was talking about a different poll. @samcoatestimes

yes the kantar one above was pre manchester but post manifesto


this is a remarkable thread, its been through a big polling error in 2015, a scottish independence vote,brexit, a snap election where the government began 24% and is now 5% ahead. a manifesto cock up that changed the election, a terrorist act that suspended campaigning and and who know what will happen in the next two weeks
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« Reply #8762 on: May 26, 2017, 09:21:31 AM »

the IFS weighs in

 Click to see full-size image.
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The Camel
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« Reply #8763 on: May 26, 2017, 09:24:50 AM »

And that polll was taken post Manchester bombing, which was supposedly going to harden Tory support.

We are living in very strange times.

Correction. The poll was taken pre Manchester.

don't think thats correct,its taken tuesday/wednesday

You're right.

I got the info from a Times journalist Twitter account, but he was talking about a different poll. @samcoatestimes

yes the kantar one above was pre manchester but post manifesto


this is a remarkable thread, its been through a big polling error in 2015, a scottish independence vote,brexit, a snap election where the government began 24% and is now 5% ahead. a manifesto cock up that changed the election, a terrorist act that suspended campaigning and and who know what will happen in the next two weeks

We live in very strange times. Trying to predict what will happen next is a fruitless task.

Maybe Jeremy Corbyn has something of Donald Trump about him. Albeit from a totally opposite political viewpoint obviously.

He is not like traditional politicians, he talks in language people understand and he has a cult like following.

Only Farage has similar influence on people in the UK.

(Or maybe I'm just trying to find a narrative which fits the results we are seeing)
« Last Edit: May 26, 2017, 09:27:26 AM by The Camel » Logged

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« Reply #8764 on: May 26, 2017, 09:25:06 AM »

 Click to see full-size image.


which feels a bit dated, as 8 of the last 10 polls are from monday or before (pre manchester)

all eyes on the weekend polls now to see if the +5 last night is repeated....
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« Reply #8765 on: May 26, 2017, 09:37:17 AM »

And that polll was taken post Manchester bombing, which was supposedly going to harden Tory support.

We are living in very strange times.

Correction. The poll was taken pre Manchester.

don't think thats correct,its taken tuesday/wednesday

You're right.

I got the info from a Times journalist Twitter account, but he was talking about a different poll. @samcoatestimes

yes the kantar one above was pre manchester but post manifesto


this is a remarkable thread, its been through a big polling error in 2015, a scottish independence vote,brexit, a snap election where the government began 24% and is now 5% ahead. a manifesto cock up that changed the election, a terrorist act that suspended campaigning and and who know what will happen in the next two weeks

We live in very strange times. Trying to predict what will happen next is a fruitless task.

Maybe Jeremy Corbyn has something of Donald Trump about him. Albeit from a totally opposite political viewpoint obviously.

He is not like traditional politicians, he talks in language people understand and he has a cult like following.

Only Farage has similar influence on people in the UK.

(Or maybe I'm just trying to find a narrative which fits the results we are seeing)

Yeah.  You shouldn't underestimate him.  He has a machine behind him that has steamrollered two elections.  Maybe he gets the new technology and how to harness it better than most.

Having said that he is frequently one step away from a big cock up.  To do a war causes terrorism speach right now just seems really badly timed at best.  I hope someone stops him speaking about it for a few days. 
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« Reply #8766 on: May 26, 2017, 09:37:57 AM »

And that polll was taken post Manchester bombing, which was supposedly going to harden Tory support.

We are living in very strange times.

Correction. The poll was taken pre Manchester.

don't think thats correct,its taken tuesday/wednesday

You're right.

I got the info from a Times journalist Twitter account, but he was talking about a different poll. @samcoatestimes

yes the kantar one above was pre manchester but post manifesto


this is a remarkable thread, its been through a big polling error in 2015, a scottish independence vote,brexit, a snap election where the government began 24% and is now 5% ahead. a manifesto cock up that changed the election, a terrorist act that suspended campaigning and and who know what will happen in the next two weeks

We live in very strange times. Trying to predict what will happen next is a fruitless task.

Maybe Jeremy Corbyn has something of Donald Trump about him. Albeit from a totally opposite political viewpoint obviously.

He is not like traditional politicians, he talks in language people understand and he has a cult like following.

Only Farage has similar influence on people in the UK.

(Or maybe I'm just trying to find a narrative which fits the results we are seeing)

that might be part of it (he needs the young and the non voters from 2015 to vote, and the pollsters doubt they will in numbers the polls suggest they will, but thats a big unknown for all this)

the Manifesto cock up/impact on the May core vote (and possibly the reduced police numbers argument ref the Manchester bombing) must also be a factor as in a stroke it has removed a lot of May's personal leader rating advantage,ref the you gov poll at night

so think we have two things in play here
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The Camel
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« Reply #8767 on: May 26, 2017, 09:48:10 AM »

And that polll was taken post Manchester bombing, which was supposedly going to harden Tory support.

We are living in very strange times.

Correction. The poll was taken pre Manchester.

don't think thats correct,its taken tuesday/wednesday

You're right.

I got the info from a Times journalist Twitter account, but he was talking about a different poll. @samcoatestimes

yes the kantar one above was pre manchester but post manifesto


this is a remarkable thread, its been through a big polling error in 2015, a scottish independence vote,brexit, a snap election where the government began 24% and is now 5% ahead. a manifesto cock up that changed the election, a terrorist act that suspended campaigning and and who know what will happen in the next two weeks

We live in very strange times. Trying to predict what will happen next is a fruitless task.

Maybe Jeremy Corbyn has something of Donald Trump about him. Albeit from a totally opposite political viewpoint obviously.

He is not like traditional politicians, he talks in language people understand and he has a cult like following.

Only Farage has similar influence on people in the UK.

(Or maybe I'm just trying to find a narrative which fits the results we are seeing)

Yeah.  You shouldn't underestimate him.  He has a machine behind him that has steamrollered two elections.  Maybe he gets the new technology and how to harness it better than most.

Having said that he is frequently one step away from a big cock up.  To do a war causes terrorism speach right now just seems really badly timed at best.  I hope someone stops him speaking about it for a few days. 

I don't know you're right.

Never in a hundred years did I think Corbyn would get Labour this close in the polls.

I think we should just ride this bandwagon until the end of the campaign now. They've done incredibly well to get this close, maybe this is the move he's got to make to push Labour over the hump.

People are sick of being terrorist targets, our current foreign policy has failed miserably. Let Corbyn have a chance to show the country there's an alternative to being the USAs lapdog.
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« Reply #8768 on: May 26, 2017, 09:53:12 AM »

And that polll was taken post Manchester bombing, which was supposedly going to harden Tory support.

We are living in very strange times.

Correction. The poll was taken pre Manchester.

don't think thats correct,its taken tuesday/wednesday

You're right.

I got the info from a Times journalist Twitter account, but he was talking about a different poll. @samcoatestimes

yes the kantar one above was pre manchester but post manifesto


this is a remarkable thread, its been through a big polling error in 2015, a scottish independence vote,brexit, a snap election where the government began 24% and is now 5% ahead. a manifesto cock up that changed the election, a terrorist act that suspended campaigning and and who know what will happen in the next two weeks

We live in very strange times. Trying to predict what will happen next is a fruitless task.

Maybe Jeremy Corbyn has something of Donald Trump about him. Albeit from a totally opposite political viewpoint obviously.

He is not like traditional politicians, he talks in language people understand and he has a cult like following.

Only Farage has similar influence on people in the UK.

(Or maybe I'm just trying to find a narrative which fits the results we are seeing)

Yeah.  You shouldn't underestimate him.  He has a machine behind him that has steamrollered two elections.  Maybe he gets the new technology and how to harness it better than most.

Having said that he is frequently one step away from a big cock up.  To do a war causes terrorism speach right now just seems really badly timed at best.  I hope someone stops him speaking about it for a few days. 

I think yr right that the conventional wisdom would be that a war causes terrorism thing would make one appear too much of an apologist to be a leader. Probably still true but I don't think it will play so negatively these days. Large parts of the electorate don't really remember more local troubles and will only have known the interventions in the middle east which seem increasingly badly motivated and executed by the day
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« Reply #8769 on: May 26, 2017, 09:54:49 AM »



"William Hill have Jeremy Corbyn at 4/1 to be the next Prime Minister"




Can you ever have imagined saying that without a few noughts after the 4..........incredible.
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« Reply #8770 on: May 26, 2017, 10:16:13 AM »

And that polll was taken post Manchester bombing, which was supposedly going to harden Tory support.

We are living in very strange times.

Correction. The poll was taken pre Manchester.

don't think thats correct,its taken tuesday/wednesday

You're right.

I got the info from a Times journalist Twitter account, but he was talking about a different poll. @samcoatestimes

yes the kantar one above was pre manchester but post manifesto


this is a remarkable thread, its been through a big polling error in 2015, a scottish independence vote,brexit, a snap election where the government began 24% and is now 5% ahead. a manifesto cock up that changed the election, a terrorist act that suspended campaigning and and who know what will happen in the next two weeks

We live in very strange times. Trying to predict what will happen next is a fruitless task.

Maybe Jeremy Corbyn has something of Donald Trump about him. Albeit from a totally opposite political viewpoint obviously.

He is not like traditional politicians, he talks in language people understand and he has a cult like following.

Only Farage has similar influence on people in the UK.

(Or maybe I'm just trying to find a narrative which fits the results we are seeing)

Think you are spot on, I had the biggest bet of my life on Trump winning and I'm really starting to get the same vibe from the attitude towards Corbyn. It's stopped being Left/Right and started being Establishment/Populist or Elite/Normal People. May have to stick a few quid on Jezza now.
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« Reply #8771 on: May 26, 2017, 10:42:30 AM »

With two weeks to go until the election, I suspect a lot of the 'short-termism' in the latest polls will correct to an extent, so I take all of this with a pinch of salt.  They may be narrowing the gap, but nothing like enough to influence the overall result to any extent.

Bear in mind:
1) The polls typically underestimate the final Tory vote.
2) Because of FPTP, a gap of zero would still result in a Tory majority, due to the concentration of Labour support in certain areas.
3) These polls are still heavily reliant on a strong turnout of the young vote, which always gets suggested but never seems to materialise (just look at the EU referendum as a prime example).

The gap closing makes logical sense from the mess the Tories made of their manifesto/campaigning pre-Manchester.  If anything, the suspension of campaigning since then will have hurt Labour, so my gut feel is that this latest poll is a good as it gets for them.
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« Reply #8772 on: May 26, 2017, 10:51:57 AM »

And that polll was taken post Manchester bombing, which was supposedly going to harden Tory support.

We are living in very strange times.

Correction. The poll was taken pre Manchester.

don't think thats correct,its taken tuesday/wednesday

You're right.

I got the info from a Times journalist Twitter account, but he was talking about a different poll. @samcoatestimes

yes the kantar one above was pre manchester but post manifesto


this is a remarkable thread, its been through a big polling error in 2015, a scottish independence vote,brexit, a snap election where the government began 24% and is now 5% ahead. a manifesto cock up that changed the election, a terrorist act that suspended campaigning and and who know what will happen in the next two weeks

We live in very strange times. Trying to predict what will happen next is a fruitless task.

Maybe Jeremy Corbyn has something of Donald Trump about him. Albeit from a totally opposite political viewpoint obviously.

He is not like traditional politicians, he talks in language people understand and he has a cult like following.

Only Farage has similar influence on people in the UK.

(Or maybe I'm just trying to find a narrative which fits the results we are seeing)

Yeah.  You shouldn't underestimate him.  He has a machine behind him that has steamrollered two elections.  Maybe he gets the new technology and how to harness it better than most.

Having said that he is frequently one step away from a big cock up.  To do a war causes terrorism speach right now just seems really badly timed at best.  I hope someone stops him speaking about it for a few days. 

I think yr right that the conventional wisdom would be that a war causes terrorism thing would make one appear too much of an apologist to be a leader. Probably still true but I don't think it will play so negatively these days. Large parts of the electorate don't really remember more local troubles and will only have known the interventions in the middle east which seem increasingly badly motivated and executed by the day

Katie "Final Solution" Hopkins, ex LBC presenter, is already on twitter (and presumably the Mail) saying Corbyn is exchanging dead kids for the terrorist sympathising vote block.

Wrong in so many ways, but it was always going to be reported this way in parts of the press.
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« Reply #8773 on: May 26, 2017, 11:01:45 AM »

With two weeks to go until the election, I suspect a lot of the 'short-termism' in the latest polls will correct to an extent, so I take all of this with a pinch of salt.  They may be narrowing the gap, but nothing like enough to influence the overall result to any extent.

Bear in mind:
1) The polls typically underestimate the final Tory vote.
2) Because of FPTP, a gap of zero would still result in a Tory majority, due to the concentration of Labour support in certain areas.
3) These polls are still heavily reliant on a strong turnout of the young vote, which always gets suggested but never seems to materialise (just look at the EU referendum as a prime example).

The gap closing makes logical sense from the mess the Tories made of their manifesto/campaigning pre-Manchester.  If anything, the suspension of campaigning since then will have hurt Labour, so my gut feel is that this latest poll is a good as it gets for them.

The old rules no longer apply Curtis.
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« Reply #8774 on: May 26, 2017, 11:04:30 AM »

With two weeks to go until the election, I suspect a lot of the 'short-termism' in the latest polls will correct to an extent, so I take all of this with a pinch of salt.  They may be narrowing the gap, but nothing like enough to influence the overall result to any extent.

Bear in mind:
1) The polls typically underestimate the final Tory vote.
2) Because of FPTP, a gap of zero would still result in a Tory majority, due to the concentration of Labour support in certain areas.
3) These polls are still heavily reliant on a strong turnout of the young vote, which always gets suggested but never seems to materialise (just look at the EU referendum as a prime example).

The gap closing makes logical sense from the mess the Tories made of their manifesto/campaigning pre-Manchester.  If anything, the suspension of campaigning since then will have hurt Labour, so my gut feel is that this latest poll is a good as it gets for them.

The old rules no longer apply Curtis.

We will soon find out.  I'm not holding my breath (particularly as I think Corbyn as PM would be as big a disaster as May, but for different reasons).

I'm holding out for a Brewster's Millions scenario where everyone votes RON!
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